Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Brant


Prediction Changed
2011-04-23 11:47:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bory, Leslie

Fueten, Nora

Laferriere, Marc

McColeman, Phil

Sitko, Martin

St. Amand, Lloyd

Incumbent:
Phil McColeman

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • brant (211/211 Polls)
  • haldimand-norfolk-brant (29/214 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 27 prognosticator15
    131.104.201.250
    Even when the NDP was lower in national polls, the numbers were not nearly as low as some Liberal partisans on this site wanted us to believe. The riding has a solid NDP support base, and today they may easily get to the second place here, without attracting all the Liberals. NDP supporters will not jump to the LPC. In fact, NDP strategists declared in the National Post that is one of their target ridings in Ontario, but this is far-fetched. The CPC at the very least has not declined here compared to last elections, and the CPC incumbent has established good reputation for himself. The CPC campaign is solid. The Liberal candidate is a 'has-been' that has hard time attracting new support and may well lose his old support, and the national Liberal machine does not seem to target the riding any more. The only question is the margin of the CPC victory here. Conservative hold!
    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    76.70.91.30
    For McColeman to win with over 40% and a nine-point margin over his incumbent Liberal opponent, especially in comparison to other Tory gains in the region in recent elections, speaks well for his chances. And with the Liberals on the defensive in Ontario, I don't see them taking this seat back this time around.
    11 04 21 MH
    70.53.47.165
    Lloyd St. Amand has a chance to regain the seat he lost in 2008 IF Liberal voters who stayed home in that election decide to show up this year, and IF he can pick up some support from NDippers who want to try to beat the Harperites. Still TCTC, though leaning Conservative.
    11 04 21 CC
    99.237.1.93
    It's difficult to understand why ‘election prediction project’ has not predicted a Conservative win in Brant?
    CPC in Brant normally does better than the Ontario average. In 2008 CPC was ~9 points higher than the LIBs in Brant, while in Ontario the CPC was about 5.5 points ahead of the LIBs. Today, looking at the Ontario polling data from Nanos Research (the best track-record polling firm, in my opinion) the CPC has a 8.4 point lead over the LIBs. Translating this Ontario data the CPCs in Brant will do even better than in 2008!
    While NDP is currently tracking a little lower in Ontario, the local NDP canadidate in Brant is running a ‘tech-savy’ organized campaign - which will likely hurt LIBs more than the CPC.
    Furthermore, I see many more CPC signs now on private property than in 2008!
    The local issues of Native Land Claims, Brownfields & Access to Health Care will not been enough to replace the local CPC candidate due to his performance on securing local InfraStructure Spending, Lower Taxes and Focus on Job Growth.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    While this was historically a centre-left riding, 25% of the population lives in the rural sections which the Tories won by a 2:1 margin last time around while Brantford is a mid sized cities so could go either way, however the Tory dominance of the rural sections should be enough to put them over the top. Last time around they won by 9% while in 2006 when the Liberals were 5% ahead in Ontario, the Liberals barely scraped by, so unless the Liberals can retake a lead in Ontario outside the margin of error, the Tories should hold this. As for strategic voting, that could tighten things up, but most polls show the Tories doing at least as well if not slightly better in Ontario than last time around as well as in 2006 and 2008, the ridings the Tories picked up in the previous election were always the ones with the biggest jumps in Tory support.
    11 04 19 MF
    70.48.66.229
    Given that Jack Layton has momentum and Michael Ignatieff has failed to inspire, I really have my doubts that NDP votes are bleeding to the Liberals. I don't think Lloyd St. Armand can count on strategic voting to put him over the top.
    11 04 18 neo
    74.15.4.231
    In response to Pratt's posting, votes are not bleeding to the NDP. This simply is not the case. Local NDP say this in every election. Dippers were saying the same thing with previous candidates Lynn Bowering (sp?) and Mr. Van Tilbourg. Both were strong candidates and ran credible campaigns. They both finished a distant third. McColeman is the early favourite no doubt but this truly is a two horse race. The only question is whether NDP will draw enough support from Libs to return McColman to Ottawa.
    11 04 18 jeremy
    159.33.10.92
    Lots of blue signs in Brant. Add up the Cons polling numbers, and the Lib-NDP vote splitting, I'm pretty confident this one will be another McColeman win.
    It's a shame since St. Amand was an effective MP, and Mark has been working at it hard, but unfortunately this one's staying blue.
    11 04 16 Pratt
    67.204.6.64
    I give this one to the NDP. Reality in the riding is that St. Amand barely held on once and will likely be in third this time. St. Amand lost handily last time and his campaign has been off to a rocky start. St. Amand keeps running but keeps loosing. Not enough has changed to reverse that and Laferriere did a great deal of pre campaign groundwork.
    Laferriere won the 1st debate which was unexpected but I understand there will be more which could favour him or could show his 1st win was a fluke. He's been highlighted nationally a few times which just doesn't happen in brant for candidates. The last one was because he's one of the most engaged twitter users of all politicians in Canada. In this election those things matter in a way that they didn't in 2008. His social media numbers are sky high compared to the other candidates too. Layton made a stop. There has to be a reason Layton stopped during the election. Pre polls must be saying something they like. Recent NDP spike nationally will help too. Anytime the NDP does well ridings with ndp backgrounds get a bigger than usual bump even in Ontario.
    McColeman also has a good chance to retain despite the anti incumbency factor in Ontario if only because those who buy into the strategic vote websites might take votes away from the NDP and waste them on the Liberals who are running a candidate that has no forward momentum and lost badly the last time.
    There are a lot of solid NDP votes to be had, many wishy washy Liberal votes and McColeman will bleed votes this time too due to mostly to his leader. Laferriere has the buzz around town even in the political circles and there are just enough voters who are disappointed in McColeman this time and enough who were and are disappointed with St. Amand who bled a lot of votes last time to allow Laferriere a very close win over McColeman.
    11 04 12 Brant Liberal
    74.15.4.231
    Two interesting anecdotes that suggest NDP vote moving to Liberals:
    1. I was on sign duty on Saturday. Unlike GTA where signs are put on every corner house and vacant green space, in Brantford all parties abide by local bylaws and commonsense. Anyways, got a sign request for house and arrived to find a NDP sign already planted (two signs at 1 house just does not happen in Brantford). Figured this was a prank but knocked on the door and asked if the owner wanted the sign. Not only did she want the sign but she wanted me to take away the NDP sign. Explained I wouldn't do it. Owner advised she was a long time NDPer but is voting Liberal to stop Torys and she is telling all her friends to do likewise.
    2. Basking in the afterglow of being told NDPers are switching their signs I went back to the office at 5:00 pm. In walks a complete stranger who says she wants to help out. Stranger fills out the form offering to do literature drops, telephone calls and canvassing. I start to explain the different types of activities and she cuts me off telling me she has done it all before for the NDP candidates in the riding!
    So, in one day two NDPers come to our support. One more passive voter who wants our sign and the second active participant who wants to knock on doors and find more voters.
    Based on Saturdays events I completely believe that the NDP vote is going to be depressed in southern Ontario this election meaning more Liberal MPs.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    67.55.11.4
    With NDP numbers THAT low in Ontario and Green support also going to the Liberals and with the Liberals/CPC being virtually tied in Ontario and this being a close race, would wager that the Liberals will retake this riding.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more Reform/Alliance than it did PC. In 1993, Reform took over 13% more than Reform, nearly 17% in 2000, and 10% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that this riding may well be much stronger in this area than historic PC results would lead some to believe.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Although this was historically a centre-left riding, the Tories had a strong second place showing in 2004 and nearly won this in 2006, both cases where they were polling lower in Ontario, thus I would say it there's to lose. 25% of the riding is rural and the Tories tend to rack up big margins here while Brantford may not be exactly a Tory stronghold, but they should still get at least 33% in the city proper. The Liberals will only retake this if the NDP vote collapses and rallies around the Liberals and the Tories see there numbers at least drop slightly. If the Tories drop below 40% here than they are vulnerable but as long as they stay above 40% they should be okay. Also in the past three elections the Tories have averaged 2-3% above their Ontario numbers so as long as they are polling at 37% or higher in Ontario they are probably okay, but if they fall below this, then it becomes vulnerable.
    11 03 30 Neo
    74.15.4.231
    This will be close race between Cons and Libs. Lots of Libs sat on their hands last time because Dion ran a weak national campaign. NDP are not contenders. Their supporters claim current candidate will sap Lib vote. They sais ame thing about VanTilbourg. This is a two horse race.
    11 03 25 Early Pundit
    74.12.189.32
    Too Close to Call
    The Liberals lost the riding with 2 time MP Lloyd St.Amand. Lloyd has been off to a very shaky start, but the Liberal Machine will press to retake Brant. Ignatieff has been to the riding twice already.
    Conservative MP Phil McColeman has Liberal Candidate on the defence. Phil McColeman appears to be close with Provincial Liberal Dave Levac . They are often together and stump for each other on the HST and Corporate Tax Cuts and share the stage at community events.
    The Conservative MP is also backbench MP that enjoys party antics.
    Which leads us to the Dark Horse. The NDP appear to be on the rise. The NDP have maintained a strong presence since the 2008 election. The Candidate appears to be everywhere and has created a true grassroots movement. Jack Layton has also visited the riding twice in the past year, so it looks like the NDP are going to make a serious attempt to reclaim the riding they once held.
    After 4 years, the Unemployment rate remains high with Job losses ignored by the Incumbent.
    Phil McColeman is no Derek Blackburn and Derek is still held with great regard in the riding.
    If the working class who have been squeezed out of the economy find their way to the polls then the NDP will be the party that will challenge the Conservative hold.
    This could turn into a two horse race between the Conservatives and the NDP with the Liberals slipping. The NDP grabbing Liberal votes + the NDP base show up for the election, then its To close to Call.
    11 03 23 brantvoter
    65.95.10.128
    Marc Laferriere and the NDP are running a great campaign in Brant. Jack Layton has been in the riding twice in the past year and a half. Derek Blackburn held this riding as a New Democrat for over 20 years. I see this riding as a two-way race between the Cons and NDP. I believe The Libs are losing significant amounts of support to the NDP. This is one race to watch on election night. The NDP and Conservatives will battle this one out, but I really think it will go NDP in the end.
    10 11 17 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Phil McColeman should keep this riding for the Tories. It is true that this riding is traditionally a left of centre riding, and the Liberals have always been strong here, however this time the Iggy is the Liberal leader, he is alas the grandson of John Massey (Massey-Ferguson) who could've taken the company and made something of it, instead the effects of M-F is still felt here even after 30 years. Expect a close race between CPC and NDP, but I think CPC'll come on top.
    09 11 21 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    I find Brant's long-term political profile to be a confusing sort of ‘left of centre’--Derek Blackburn skewed the picture for so long on behalf of the NDP, and then the Nixon family effect in the form of Jane Stewart skewed the picture on behalf of the Liberals--to the point where I'd term the longterm Tory record here less as ‘weak’ than as ‘suppressed’; had the cards played differently, the seat could just as well have defaulted into a blue-collarish conservative-populist stronghold a la Cambridge. As a result, even if Iggy and Harper were closer to polling parity, it isn't as if Lloyd St-Amand is a cinch to retake--for all we know, he might wind up in third place. And all the more so if Iggy's underpolling Dion and Layton's outpolling '08...
    09 10 30 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Brant is historically seen as a left of centre riding having been held for the liberals recently and ndp before that. Phil McColemans victory here as a conservative was one of the first times in years it had gone to the conservatives. but he did come very close to winning the seat in 06 so it wasn't exactly a total surprise that he won. and given the conservatives success in holding other gains in non-traditional seats i'd give him the advantage here next election. he has also been active as mp this last year and brought some federal funds to the riding. of course the liberals are running Lyold St Armand again but he was given the nomination back without any competition and that was something that was critised in a newspaper editoral from out of this riding i read a while back. they didn't understand why after his recent lose and close finish in 06 why he was just given the nomination over other potential candidates. running a former mp keeps the liberals competitive here if nothing else but it certainly doesn't mean they'd win it back just cause he was running.
    09 10 13 Telephone CIty
    76.65.3.26
    I wish to respond to Bear & Ape. In a number of your predictions for this riding you have made reference to a mythical Ford Layoff. There is no Ford Plant in the riding of Brant. To what are you referring?
    09 09 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.15.39.168
    So we have a rematch between St Amand for the Liberals and McColeman for the Conservatives. The last election saw a sit out by Liberal and NDP voters (down 4134 and 3382 votes respectively). Never the less, even if the great Liberal sit-out of '08 didn't occur, the CPC still would have taken it as their support in '08 was greater than the Liberal support of '06. We surmise that the Liberals only kept this riding in '06 because of the announced Ford layoffs in Brantford on election day. In tough economic times workers don't tend to flock to the Torys. Now that's where there may be a glitch in our prediction. Neither of us have been to this riding recently (since the economy went south) and we admit to not knowing what the economic situation is like here. If things are bad here, we can see enough votes being siphened off of the CPC to allow the Liberals to win. However, the Cons do have a knack of growing in closely-won ridings and can see them keeping this one by a stronger margin. If the Liberals start to surge in Ontario outside the GTA, this will be one of the first to return to the Liberal fold...not yet though...
    09 08 27 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    McColeman's percentage of the vote jumped 6% last time out. With the incumbent's advantage, he'll widen his lead over 5,000 votes.



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