Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Durham


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Barnicoat, Blaize

Humes, Grant

Leahy, Stephen

Moriarity, Andrew

Oda, Bev

Schoep, Tammy

Incumbent:
Hon. Bev Oda

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • durham (147/199 Polls)
  • pickering-ajax-uxbridge (30/200 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Uxbridgeite
    66.203.207.66
    I have heard (from a liberal source) that Grant Humes Campagin Manager has Conceted Defeat already. Hmmm Well looks good for Bev. I thought for Sure that Bev was out on this one
    11 04 30 Matt
    99.252.171.39
    This is Harper Country, No chance of a flip here. Interesting to note the NDP is running a ‘Ghost’ Candidate here with no campaign office and very few small signs. This is a two way race and the North will bring it home for Bev Oda. There are more ODA signs on lawns by far 4 to 1 in my opinion ( even in the south ) People here also are older and vote.
    11 04 22 mks from Durham
    99.253.83.36
    Contrary to many previous posters suggestions, people are definitely talking about Oda's scandal problems and sightings of Bev seem to be few and far between. Humes, on the other hand, seems to be picking up traction in debates and in sign coverage. This will be a close one on election night, but here in the riding, it sure seems like Ms. Oda may be in trouble.
    11 04 18 Wilbur from Durham
    174.95.219.209
    Huge crowd out for the debate in Uxbridge. The audience was clearly onside with Liberal candidate Grant Humes. The same thing occurred earlier that day in Port Perry in front of an equally large crowd at the CBC's airing of Cross-Canada Check Up (which by the way, Oda did not attend). Never before have I seen such strong pro-Liberal (anti Conservative) sentiments expressed in this riding.
    11 04 08 Joseph Uranowski
    99.254.237.12
    The Liberals nominated Grant Humes, a businessman who wont stop talking about local issues (agriculture, Darlington Nuclear, the GO Train, jobs, etc.) His signs are everywhere and it doesn't look like Bev Oda is going door-to-door. Yes the riding has been Conservative in the past but the Kairos scandal and the tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario could swing this riding.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    142.177.100.229
    ‘Oda won it 54-to-23, and every single poll within.’
    ‘16,000 votes is far too much for the Libs to overcome.’
    Cabinet minister.
    No real chance of removing her. Probably just as many voters think she looks cool in her Ray Orbison shades as care about seeing her smoking.
    Everyone also knows Harper and Kenney forced that KAIROS decision. It was not hers. She may be perceived as yet another bullied female Harper minister taking the heat for something that was absolutely not her doing, and get sympathy votes.
    If you're looking for vulnerable Ontario cabinet ministers, not sure who - Clement was vulnerable once but thanks to his free gifts to his riding (the G8) while dumping the mess on Toronto (the G20) he may no longer be.
    11 04 02 T.L
    69.158.85.90
    This riding will go Conservative no matter who the candidate is for the party. Harper would have dumped Oda if he thought she had a chance of loosing. The voter history in this riding consistently shows the Conservative votes (split or united) exceeds those who vote Liberal. The past election saw the local NDP candidate get hammered and people still voted for the party or switched to the Greens. This only shows that there is a dedicated base who would vote anything but Liberal or Conservative. A well funded Liberal campaign might make some gains, but not enough to make up the 8500 vote deficit that is needed to win.
    The only thing that will push this riding liberal red will be if the Conservatives central campaign collapses worse than Kim Campbell's.
    11 03 29 durham gal
    99.231.110.208
    Will the Liberals win a tough fight in this riding. Yes. I have been involved with over thirty campaigns in this riding and I have never never seen a backlash against any candidate as I have seen with ODA. If the tories bring in Ottawa to help, so will the liberals..no win there. are Voters are appalled at the sight of the famous ODA picture with the FAG hanging out of her mounth.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Notwithstanding Bev Oda's controversies in parliament this is a solid Conservative riding. In fact it was one of only two ridings (Carleton-Mississippi Mills being the other) where the Tories won every single poll, so I doubt there will be that big a shift over the KAIROS issue. In the worse case scenario she will only win a plurality as opposed to outright majority.
    11 03 28 WAC
    204.15.39.90
    Odude22 also predicted the fall of Gerry Ritz in Battlefords-Lloydminister after his ill-timed comments about listeriosis last election. We all know how that turned out. I expect a similar result, maybe a small shift in voting, but not nearly enough to change the result.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    Bev Oda may be facing a scandal, but I really don't see her losing. The numbers just aren't there. She won big last time, with 54% and a 30-point margin over her Liberal opponent. Granted, the NDP candidate had been forced to withdraw, but he still finished with over 10% anyway. Not to mention that Tories won here back in 2004, and provincially they held on in both 2003 and 2007. I think a good point of comparison here is the Diane Finley/Caledonia situation from 2008. No question, Oda will take a big hit, but it won't be enough to topple her.
    11 03 24 Josh
    74.13.218.18
    Odude, I still have to disagree (respectfully, of course). Look at the history of the riding - and even other incarnations of the riding. Sure, a Liberal was elected at the height of Trudeau-mania in '68, but the Tories overwhelmingly have the advantage here.
    Even with Oda's transgressions, the Tories will hold this riding.
    11 03 23 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    I stand by my statement. The addition of another right wing party gave the voters of this riding another choice, and like my friend below says, the vote between the PC's and Reform/Canadian Alliance combined would have been higher than the Liberals. But, if one goes back and looks at the FULL electoral history of the riding you can seee that the Liberals do indeed have a strong history in this riding -- history goes further back than 1993. Also, Ross Stevenson the PC MP that served this riding for 5 years was on the Left side of the PC Party. It can not be argued that this riding does not have strong Liberal roots.
    11 03 21 Josh
    74.13.218.18
    Odude22 says this riding was previously strong for the Liberals - not true. This was a seat the Liberals won in '93, '97 and '00 due to the right-wing split. Combined, the PC / Reform / Alliance numbers would have toppled the Liberals.
    A strong Tory riding that will stick with Oda, regardless of the current controversy.
    11 03 17 durham gal
    99.231.110.208
    Will Bev Oda run again who knows, she sure is not showing up at a lot of functions in the riding. She is in trouble before her parliamentary actions. The most profound impact in the riding of Durham bar none is the picture in every major media outlet in the country of Mrs Oda with her cigarette hanging our of her mounth.
    11 03 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Liberals have a chance in Durham? Really. but considering the ndp's presence in Oshawa one could argue they'd have a chance here as well so I find it odd anyone call this a previously strong liberal area as stats don't really back that up. I’m also not really sure Bev Oda actually run again, she is well in her 60's and considering all that’s gone on and such. She could run again but to leave wouldn't be a shocker to some. Also not convinced the foreign agency funding controversy relates to the daily lives of average people in Durham or that opposition get as much traction as they'd like. If funding such groups with local residents tax dollars is really a vote winner than maybe the liberals do better but I’m not convinced.
    11 03 05 Christopher Salloum
    192.75.139.254
    After the ‘not’ comment, Bev Oda is ruined. It shows her skills as a minister are weak and the Liberals will capitalize on this. Liberals will pick up the riding.
    11 02 21 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    This riding has previously been a very strong Liberal area, and now, following the outrageous act that incumbent, Minister Oda, has done will certainly not sit well with the constituents. Liberal’s will take this riding back next election.
    11 02 18 Durham Gal
    99.231.110.208
    Durham may have been a marginally small safe seat for ODA, NOT NOW. She is history and most likely will not run again. Prior to ODAGATE conservatives were coming to the liberals for help with issues, due to their dissatisfaction with ODA.
    11 02 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.195.116
    Scandal has befallen Bev Oda. The opposition has called her a liar and used terms such as ‘fraud’ and ‘forgery’ to describe what's going on with some document and funding for a charity. Will that result in a demotion from cabinet? Possibly. Will it affect her chances at re-election? Probably not. Would even say, most likely not.
    09 09 14 curious george
    99.231.243.29
    Tories have dumped a lot of money in the north and nothing in the south, either they are not confident with the north and take the south of the riding for granted. I think once the south gets wind of the amount of money spent out of Clarington it will not cost the election but will cost some votes. The explosion of the national debt is not going to sit too comfortable in this riding. I even noticed that fair weather friend John O'Toole is keeping his distance until he sniffs the wind.
    09 09 12 NV
    123.211.214.170
    The last two elections have shown that Oda has been able to effectively identify her vote and get it to the polls. This is what has seen her vote count rise in the last two elections. The CPC riding association here is flushed with cash and dumps it on phone banks, literature, campaign staff, and advertising. Basically all the components you need to win a campaign. As seen in the 2004 showdown between the well funded campaign of Lang anyone can be competitive in this riding.
    I am still not convinced that this is a Conservative riding. Rather, this is a riding that votes for what it is familiar with. It is also safe to say that Liberal Voters stayed on election day and the NDP vote shifted to the Greens.
    On election day about 5,000 voters stayed home (the amount of Liberal votes not cast in this election). The NDP lost 4,000 votes while the Greens gained about 4,000 votes The CPC only gained about 1,500 votes from the 2006 election
    I suspect that this riding will not shift. However, the CPC will not be able to sustain the 25,000 + vote mark. The NDP and Greens will also see their numbers dwindle, while the Liberals will see their voter turnout increase to about the 20,000 - 21,000 mark. The only variable that will nix these figures is if the Liberals are unable to find funds to run a visible campaign.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The anti-Saanich-GI, where a flubbed and withdrawn NDP candidacy *didn't* result in the ?left? vote galvanizing around the Liberals: instead, Oda won it 54-to-23, and every single poll within. (That the NDP still got 10% was either the result of phantom campaigning, or a bounce from GM's collapse, or both.)
    09 08 24 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Oda has continued to improve her communication skills over the past number of years. She still isn't a dynamic speaking, but she's nowhere near as dry as she used to be. Even without her work on this front, 16,000 votes is far too much for the Libs to overcome.



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