Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Kingston and the Islands


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Beals, Daniel

Gordon, Alicia

Hsu, Ted

Walton, Eric

Incumbent:
Hon. Peter Milliken

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hastings-frontenac-lennox-and-addington (7/221 Polls)
  • kingston-and-the-islands (259/259 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 02 MT
    69.159.75.57
    Kingston was more than just a convenient stop. The Police counted 1200 people, and the media is reporting the same thing...keep in mind Jack's rally in Duceppe's riding got 1300. Kingston is in play for the NDP, and people are finally starting to see it. Even the National Media covered it. As well Jack mentioned the Prison Farms, a huge boost for undecided Prison Farms people.
    Not to mention, the Crop PTI puts us 3 points ahead of the Liberals the day before the election. Here goes 'folks'
    11 05 01
    76.10.141.31
    Kingston is going Orange...Layton would only spend time in the riding if internal polls show it can be flipped..
    11 04 30 expat
    209.105.131.192
    I don't claim to have any special knowledge of this riding, but find it extremely interesting that Layton is campaigning here on the last day of the election. Does the NDP have reason to believe they are within reach here? (Or is Kingston just a convenient stop between Montreal and Oshawa?).
    Look at the incredible fluidity of the Ontario polls over the last few days -- are the NDP at 22% or 34%? Are the Liberals in 3rd place with 21% or winning the province with 34%? Are the Conservatives blowing everyone out of the water with 47%, or are they in a 3 way race with 33%?
    With that kind of uncertainty, a huge number of ridings are potentially in play. While conventional wisdom says this will be a Liberal hold, a reasonable case can be made that any of the 3 leading parties will win in Kingston. Plenty of people here are making the case for who they think it will be -- at least one of them will be right.
    11 04 30 MR
    67.193.198.201
    Current city councilor and past NDP candidate in the last federal and provincial elections endorsed Lib Ted Hsu in today's WHig. Long time city councilor/labour activist Stave Garrison also endorsing Hsu. The prison farm protesters are supporting Ted Hsu despite the NDP's Beals being the only candidate to participate with them in protest.
    Many who have been NDP voters are going with the Libs this time, its not going to be close
    11 05 01 John M
    96.232.17.11
    Vote splitting between liberals and NDP will easily be enough to deliver this riding to the tories.
    11 04 30 jeff316
    69.165.140.216
    The thing with Kingston is that there are just too many Liberal and liberal-inclined voters here for the other two parties to win without an super strong or star candidate. Gordon certainly isn't it. Beals is well-intentioned but also isn't it. That's what will save the Liberals here.
    11 04 30 Em Ma
    69.159.75.57
    Even Project Democracy has the NDP in second in this riding.
    Without fear of the Conservatives, Kingstonians will vote in confidence for the NDP.
    11 04 30 MT
    173.206.8.37
    As someone who has seen the information on the NDP campaign, I do know some things I could share.
    While I wont go so far as to make a prediction since it will be close between the Liberals and NDP I do know that the NDP has had more volunteers, signs, donations and general support than the past few election. If the NDP got 18% in the last Federal election in Kingston it is reasonable to assume that will be going up - whether it is up to 22% or 30% who knows. Strategic voting is fading however.
    One thing is for sure however, anyone who tries to claim the NDP will get less than 18% is fooling themselves.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    The latest poll, from Ipsos, shows the Liberal vote collapsing in Ontario - 21% in latest poll!
    THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, as a former Kingstonian with many friends and family still living there, I believe Hsu will hold this - barely. First, he has an amazing team behind him. He managed to win the nomination over Harvey Rosen, the outgoing (admittedly unpopular) mayor, and Bill Flanagan, the extremely popular Dean of Queen's Law. In addition, this is a riding where personalities matter and Hsu has a great one, while Gordon's campaign seems to have been falling flat. I've met her, and while she's well-intentioned (and the mother of a Queen's Vanier Cup-winning football star), she's not terribly engaging beyond in the real estate agent variety. Finally, the other predictions that have compared this riding as being more similar to Guelph, than, say, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, seem on point.
    One caveat: while I don't for a second believe the NDP will win this seat (despite wishful thinking to the contrary), it is true that they have enough of a base here to pull left-of-centre votes away from the Tories.
    So at the end of the day, I expect this to be a nailbiter.
    11 04 27 Anni C.
    173.206.27.215
    Honestly, the Liberals constantly insisting that The Conservatives and the Liberals are neck and neck with the NDP behind is nothing but a play to scare people into strategic voting.
    1) the History of the riding shows the NDP has been building momentum for many years.
    2) Kingston has a lot of government jobs, low income residents, students, and pensioners - ripe for the NDP
    3) Most polls people refer to are based on previous election results, or websites with no basis. Truth is no real polls have been conducted in Kingston and the Islands and the only two online polls attempted by the Kingstonist put NDP in a clear leader with the Liberals in second and Conservatives too low to notice.
    4)National polls are constantly putting Liberal support at 22% and NDP support at 28%, Ekos, Nanos and Angus Reid in the past 2 days alone. It would be foolish to assume Kingston is immune to these numbers.
    Judging by the large number of NDP and Liberal signs in traditionally Conservative areas of town, and the large number of block voters planning to vote NDP, I say this race is between the NDP and Liberals. The only way the Liberals will guarantee a win is to trick people into strategically voting out of fear. The national polling numbers however will make it hard to scare people.
    It was Eric Walton who said a few nights ago on his twitter: Strategic voting for the Liberals might help the Conservatives mre than voting for the NDP.
    11 04 26 Nick
    173.238.74.149
    Liberals winning this riding by 15 points? Hah! I just had my laugh for the day!
    Nanos' Ontario numbers released today show something nearly identical to 1984, when the Liberals were only left with 14 seats in the entire province. Milliken beat Abrams in 2008 by 3837 votes - 6.6%. This, with a popular Liberal incumbent candidate and a national campaign that (I never thought I'd see the day I said this) was run better in 2008 than this year. If the Conservatives are just shy of the 50% mark provincially - and as we all know, they poll higher regionally in Eastern Ontario than the provincial average - the Liberals lose Kingston. It's not outside the realm of possibility that the Liberals hold on to Kingston, but if they do it'll be one hell of a squeaker, and nowhere even remotely close to the *laugh* 15 point margins some others here have mentioned. It would be far more likely for the Liberals to hold on to this riding if Milliken was running again. Alas, the Liberals enjoy no such advantage this time around, and the numbers just don't add up to the Liberals retaining this riding in 2011.
    11 04 23 MR
    67.193.198.201
    Beyond me why this gets moved back to too close...Libs clearly are going to take support from the 3 others and substantially increase their margin from last time. Hsu by 15 points over Gordon, NDP will be lucky to get 10% to get their expense rebate, Green half of last time.
    11 04 20 JM
    66.228.67.52
    Update:
    9. Poor performance by Alicia Gordon in local debates. -1 CPC +1 LPC
    http://samanthabutler87.com/2011/04/19/gordon-silenced-at-kingstons-first-all-candidates-meeting/
    LPC 40%, CPC 37%, NDP 15%, GPC 8%
    11 04 19 MF
    70.48.66.229
    While Peter Milliken obviously was respected by the people of Kingston, I still think this is still a pretty safe Liberal seat. The Liberals survived the Dion debacle and it always rejected Mike Harris provincially. Kingston is a generally a small-’l' liberal city with a major university, a bit of a counter-cultural element and a lot of public sector workers that don't vote Tory. Also, the Greens aren't likely to be getting 11% this time and the Liberals (as well as the NDP) are likely to be the beneficiaries of that.
    11 04 19 Initial
    69.7.241.247
    If the number of Ted Hsu's lawn signs on private property are any predictor, a lot of Kingstonians will be voting Liberal.
    The Conservative candidate, Alicia Gordon, according to her own webpage, has no post-secondary education (and there is no indication that she completed high school). If Kingstonians know her at all, it's only as the auctioneer for Gordon's Auction house over the past couple of decades. We personally witnessed her express personal political opinions at auctions prior to Gordon's discontinuing these types of live auctions. This was inappropriate and definitely off-putting.
    There is also no indication on her website that she is bilingual. Kingston has officially been designated a bilingual city, so this is a clear disadvantage.
    11 04 19 M K
    216.221.72.244
    I agree that this will be close, but in terms of get-out-the-vote, I think this will end up in Hsu's column. Others have mentioned Beals as a weak candidate for the NDP compared to previous years, and I agree. Despite how well the NDP is starting to do overall across Canada, previous candidates that have fared well have been known faces - city councillors and mayoral candidates.
    There's also strong sentiment (amongst probably a majority of the population) against the Tories for closing the prison farms in this CSC town, and that's where getting out the vote will come in. You can bet the vocal Save Our Prison Farms members will be out to vote for at least one of the three candidates who support reopening the prison farms issue. I'm not seeing an equally motivating issue to get out the Conservative voters.
    11 04 19 MEW
    64.118.21.235
    Ted Hsu is a very weak candidate and has worked in Kingston for less than three years. This will hurt him as he is unknown and has not contributed to the community in any sustained way.
    11 04 19 JM
    66.228.67.52
    Let's start with the 2008 results and work from there.
    1. Conservative have a stronger candidate than last year. Why else would they switch so late in the game? Why else was Abrams given a judgeship to stand aside? +3 CPC -2 LPC -1 NDP
    2. Liberals lost a popular incumbent. -4 LPC +2 CPC +2 NDP
    3. Last elections' results were generally considered a foregone conclusion, so most voters voted their party preference. This time around there will likely be strategic voting. -3 NPD -2 GPC +5 LPC
    4. Liberal candidate has environmental bona fides, will likely encourage more strategic voting from Greens. -1 GPC +1 LPC
    5. Local hot button issues (prison farms) favour opposition parties. -2 CPC +1 LPC +1 NDP
    6. This election occurs after Queen's students go back home. -1 LPC -1 NDP -1 GPC +3 CPC
    7. New Liberal candidate has impressive resume, is coming off big upset against establishment liberal candidate +2 LPC -1 CPC -1 NDP
    8. People don't seem to like Ignatieff -2 LPC +1 CPC +1 NDP
    Prediction: LPC 39% CPC 38% GPC 7% NDP 15%
    11 04 19 GN
    70.54.5.249
    JWan your post is hilarious. Every credible poll shows that it is a one or two point race between the Libs and the Tories. The NDP is sitting at around 16 percent. There is an appetite for change, it is for the Tories not the NDP. Even the prison farms activists are not supporting the NDP, which is sad as Mr Beals has been there with them from the beginning. Although, I do like Mr Beals he is having a hard time getting his message out. This race is still too close to call, but I'm sticking with Team Alicia. Gordon will win....and maybe with a recount.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Actually, R.O., The Ottawa Citizen is a very Conservative newspaper, as is The Ottawa Sun. That doesn't change the fact that the race is close though.
    11 04 18 MR
    130.15.161.188
    Not voting for him but Hsu is going to win with a much larger margin that Peter had last time. The NDP is running very weak with no name Beals, many who voted Downes last time will be voting Hsu. Suspect all 3 challengers lose votes to the Libs this time. Hsu has utter domination in the lawn sign war.
    11 04 18 J. Wan
    173.206.163.80
    The Liberals have been losing quite a bit of support since the Iggy visit and the debates. Whether they will make tht back up before the election who knows. The fear over the Conservatives taking the seat is also wearing off the average voter. Normally that is an argument that comes in in the last three weeks of the election, but this year it came out right away giving people time to get over it.
    The Conservatives in Kingston are at a low. Lower than the New Democrats. If it is too close to call it is between the NDP and the Liberals.
    While steadfast, true members of the Liberals and the Conservatives will debate between each other about who seems better off, the average Kingston keeps saying the same thing ‘its time for a change.’ People in hair salons are talking about the NDP. People who have never voted at all are being inspired to start. Which is why, unless something changes before the election (and it might)I truly predict the New Democrats to take this seat. Second choice, in a close race, would be Liberals. Conservatives are a distant third for sure.
    11 04 17 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    I'm sending this in not for the point of arguing with site over changing prediction to liberal but for the public record as this was a good article and it hasn't been mentioned by anyone yet . note myself i have not made solid prediction for riding yet still say too close to call . anyways here's what Ottawa Citizen said about Kingston and Islands last week , which is not the most conservative friendly newspaper .
    Long Milliken's Liberal bastion , Kingson could go blue this time .
    http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Long+Milliken+Liberal+bastion+Kingston+could+Tory+this+time/4619776/story.html#ixzz1JnG2SMXP

    It's a battleground riding that's too close to call. Even the Liberal and Conservative candidates agree they're running neck and neck.
    ‘It's a very close race,’ says Liberal candidate Ted Hsu. Adds Conservative hopeful Alicia Gordon: ‘People are going to have to make a tough decision.’
    Even Milliken isn't sure the Liberals can hold on.
    ‘I don't know. Who knows?’ he said earlier this week.
    11 04 15 GN
    74.15.77.85
    All polls put this race within a percentage point and with a low voter turnout expected, most likely, this campaign will be decided by less than 500 votes. To my mind, that means that the outcome will be decided in large part by each candidates GOTV campaign. With the Liberal being a surprise choice and the Conservative being well known and having a large campaign team, I would suggest that they will run a superior GOTV effort. Although this should be classified as Too Close To Call, I will go out on a limb and suggest that the Gordon team will pull out the victory in Kingston and the Islands.
    11 04 16 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    Calling this for the Libs already? A riding in which even Peter Milliken only won by 3500 votes in 2008? A riding with such a strong Tory background? (yes yes yes, I know, Kingston was more PC than CPC; but federal PC is now ancient history, the CPC are the new Tories, and it must have some pull for long-time residents here).
    This is a very close race that may go down to a recount - could very well be the Kitchener-Waterloo of the 2011 election.
    11 04 15 Neal
    184.144.51.42
    Bit early to call this one, I think. My view is that on May 2nd is that Mauril Belanger and David McGuinty will be the last two Liberals left standing in eastern Ontario. However, this one will be close, 1% either way, but i tend to think it will go to Alicia Gordon.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    75.154.180.24
    This riding has plenty of middle and upper-middle class citizens who would feel most comfortable swaying with the governing winds. Milliken held this for such a long time that it is difficult to see if this has real Liberal trends or Con trends. Hsu is a strong candidate but I'm getting the feeling that this could be one that flips. It will be no doubt close.
    11 04 12 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    The fact Iggy visited a riding that been liberal for 20 plus years the day before the national leaders debates indicates it must still be pretty close or why else not just return to Ottawa and get ready for the debate which is much more important if it was looking like an easy liberal hold in Kingston . it has to be pretty close for him to visit the riding the day before english language debate. without Milliken on ballot i wouldn't be surprised to see it flip but its tough to say what happens here and both main candidates not ran before so its tough to get a feel for how they'll do. since they don't have alot of name recogniton there mostly relying on party brand i assume.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    69.196.129.96
    Conservative potential in Kingston has been vastly over-rated in the past few elections. Kingston is a very Liberal town and this will not change for a while. Towns like Kingston and Stratford and Peterborough are large enough to attract a certain left-leaning element from their local hinterlands, making the electoral patterns between rural-urban and rural-rural ridings even more pronounced. Cheap acreages in the 1970s through 90s attracted a fair number of back-to-the-landers to Kingston, complementing the old money, the university profs, the students, and the very middle-class Liberal voters present in town already. If anything, the shift in political support in Kingston is slightly leftward, toward the NDP and Greens in the last few provincial and federal elections.
    An unknown and untested Conservative (particularly of the Harper variety) will not best an untested and unknown Liberal.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    With Peter Miliken not running again and after the Tories only missed this by 7% last time around never mind university is not in session which should help them, this will be aggressively targeted. However, this is not a conservative riding as the two neighbouring ones are. Past Tories to win here like Flora Macdonald were Red Tories, not more right wing ones and in fact Flora Macdonald does not support the current Tories and won't vote for them. At this point too close to call so will have to see how the campaign progresses before making any predictions here.
    11 03 31 CJ
    142.203.1.9
    I lived in Kingston until this past winter and can't imagine this riding switching over to the CPC. The CPC might have had an outside chance with the very hard working Brian Abrams but the new candidate has zero name recognition. Also, the Kingston Liberal machine is reinvigorated and working hard for Ted Hsu after taking many years off without blowouts for Miliken federally and Gerretsen provincially. For those that point to Kingston's election of Flora McDonald prior to Miliken must remember she was a red tory in a ‘PC government’, much different than today's more right wing Conservatives. All this points to about a 5,000-6,000 vote Liberal hold.
    11 03 29 Doorknocker
    74.14.62.150
    Peter Milliken is gone after 23 years in the saddle and replacing him is a relative newcomer to Kingston, a city of enduring tradition. And to top it off, this Liberal was a Wall Street banker. He's unknown on the street, never having sought any other position and wanting to start at the top. the Conservatives came close in the last election against the formidable Milliken and their team is back with a new candidate with deep Kingston roots. Before Milliken Kingston's MP was Flora McDonald, this time it's another female Conservative candidate and she's expected to win it and be a real candidate for cabinet, like Flora. All surrounding ridings are Conservative and this one will be Conservative after May 2nd!
    11 03 29 will1987
    69.157.44.4
    This will be an interesting riding for the Liberals with Milliken gone. I think it's a bit of a toss-up right now with the result likely being close.
    11 03 27 Anichent
    64.56.255.88
    Milliken's retirement offers some serious questions about Kingston; whether Kingston and the Islands has remained Liberal because of him, or because of a genuine desire for Liberal representation.
    On the Liberals:
    Ted Hsu is a very new candidate and has a good chance of winning over the progressive vote in town because of his environmental stances and personal stances on issues. He also has the benefit on riding on the Liberal legacy in Kingston and the Islands. News is spreading around the riding, however, of his pro-life (aka. anti-abortion) political views, and his history at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo is begining to backfire against some of his gains. Especially in working class, academic, and women voters. Many of Ted's literature and advetisements so far contain the words ‘Pronounced Shoe’ in what might be considered by some as patronizing. Reflections from door to door canvassing tell of youth canvassing who are very timid at the door leading to bad impressions.
    On the Conservatives:
    Alicia Gordon is the newest candidate in Kingston and the Islands, and as the sole female candidate she should be able to capitalize. So far, she has been met with open arms by the elderly community in Kingston. She has also managed to secure heavy endorsements such as Mike Duffy, one of Canada's most well-known journalists. Unfortunately, she jumped the gun on creating advertisements and signs decreasing her ability to claim that the election was forced upon her and unintended by the Conservatives. She too has begun to build a reputation for herself which can be seen as not helpful to her campaign. Among women in Kingston she is quickly becoming known as the ‘b*tch,’ and many people refer to her careers as an auctioneer and realtor by calling her ‘the one who sells everyone else's stuff’ - not meant in a positive way. Reflections on her door to door canvassing so far bring news that she is far too aggressive when talking to people.
    On the New Democrats:
    Daniel Beals is by far the most experienced candidate in Kingston and the Islands to have a chance at winning, having been candidate for over 18 months now. He is also very often the only candidate to show up to community events. Unfortunately for his campaign far too many voters are unfamiliar with him and therefore he faces a tough election. With the large number of students, working class, and public sector imployed voters, his only real chance would be to appeal to these voters in a way not yet managed by the New Democratic candidates of the past. Beals has been able to appeal to a large number of non-voters or previously Green voters with his pro-marijuana stance and the NDP's new support of the Kingston Compassion Club Society. News from door to door canvassing shows that Beals has a 6 month lead over the other candidates and an experienced team of volunteers which could provide some advantage.
    On the Greens:
    The Greens are almost non-existant in Kingston and the Islands being largely innactive in the greater community. They lost the pro-marijuana vote to the NDP which was one of their major pillars of support. The New Democrats and Liberals are also moving in on the Geens' environmental claims with legislation and environmentally minded candidates. Eric Walton, the Green candidate, rarely shows up to any events and when he does simply states party policy without taking serious consideration or adding personal reflection to the topic. With public speaking as a weakness, and rarely making eye-contact with the audience, instead prefering to look over their heads, Eric Walton and the Greens have no serious chance at winning in Kingston and the Islands. Walton has yet to go door to door canvassing.
    All in all, Kingston will be a tight race. The Conservatives are putting more and more effort into the campaign viewing the riding of the former speaker as a trophy riding. The Liberals must maintain the seat, or at least prevent the Conservatives from winning it and may be able to ride on past support to keep the seat. The New Democrats are not to be discounted however, and have so far put the most serious effort into the campaign in the eyes of many voters; how much reward they will get for their efforts is yet to be seen. It will be a very close race.
    11 03 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Some things have happened here that require an update. First off one can't wonder that the conservatives might be extra motivated to go after this one. There has been a feeling among many Tories that speaker Milliken has been siding with opposition most of the time as his high profile speakers rulings always seem to go against the conservatives. since he is the speaker they have avoided going after him and he is not even running again but still the though of picking up his old seat may be too good to pass up, of course they still must beat the liberals which is the challenge . The other big news is that the conservatives held a nomination meeting and selected Alicia Gordon as their new candidate. She’s new so its tough to get a feel for how she'll do here but the race continues to get interesting.
    11 02 21 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    Liberal's will hold this riding. Yes, Milliken is gone, and yes that does take away some votes. However, star Conservative Candidate Brian Abrams has dropped out of the running. This riding has been voting Liberal since 1988 federally, and voting Liberal/NDP since 1985 provincially. This riding, especially without the strong Conservative candidate will most certainly stay Liberal.
    11 02 08 MEW
    64.118.27.4
    The new Liberal candidate is virtually unknown in Kingston as he has only been back in the city for several years
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    66.203.195.157
    It was close last time and it's definitely a whole new world with Milliken gone, but the list of candidates at the Liberal nomination meeting suggests that they have a lot of confidence in holding the seat. The current Liberal candidate has a rather eye-popping resume and would surely be a shoo-in for the front benches in due time.
    11 01 28 Marco Ricci
    174.115.176.181
    I think the Liberals will have a fight on their hands to keep this riding without the incumbent advantage of Milliken, but former Conservative candidate Brian Abrams who performed well here in 2008 has also recently stepped down and so now BOTH parties may have an equal advantage since they both have to start with new candidates. In a bit of a surprise, the Liberals did not nominate Kingston Mayor Harvey Rosen, who had thrown his hat into the nomination race. They chose instead Ted Hsu, a scientist and environmentalist. The Conservatives are now looking for a new candidate to replace Abrams. It's possible that the departure of Abrams from the race could give Hsu a bit of a head start, but we will need to see the strength of the 2 parties in the Ontario numbers during the next election before we can know more.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    24.235.153.34
    Changing my call to Conservative. With Milliken out, this is a whole new game. I believe that he held the seat due primarily to his own popularity, rather than the party banner.
    10 07 18 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Milliken has made it official and announced his retirement which means there will be a new speaker next parliament and a new mp for Kingston and the Islands. its really tough to say what might happen here , myself i'm expecting a race similar to the one seen in Guelph where all the parties went hard for the riding. and some party leaders have already started visiting the riding as Ignatieff did a townhall here well on tour. i'd say the ridings politics is very similar to Guelph not just because it has a large university but other factors as well such as a strong conservative and ndp base. The other big question is the liberal nomination and with 4 candidates its unclear who is even the front runner for the nomination. but who ever they run isn't going to be is high profile in Ottawa as Milliken was so they'll be facing a competitive race against returning conservative candidate Brian Abrams .
    10 06 26 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This one will be interesting to watch. Peter Milliken has announced that he will not seek reelection. As it stands now, Ignatieff's poll numbers are worse than Dion's ever was. Harper's a few points bellow where he was the last time, when you think about it 31-35% isn't all that bad, considering nothing positive's ever been said about him since taking office. A good campaign ( which Harper did not have the last time ), may be all it's required to tip this riding back in the blue column. It'll be interesting.
    10 06 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.14.183.2
    Word is out. It's official, Millikan is not running again. That definitely puts this riding into play. Now without rehashing previously made points (A.S. hit many of them squarely on the head), if we were compelled to make a decision we say a Liberal keep with a situation akin to Guelph. The most recent poll numbers put CPC at about 31% and Libs at 27%. Much closer than the last election and would mean the CPC would be playing defence in Ontario. Plus it's likely the Liberals will focus strongly on keeping this one, not worrying about spending resources on the near-by unwinnable ridings. Never the less, the election is a long ways off and much can change by then.
    10 01 17 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Given the current rarity of non-GTA federal Liberal seats in Ontario, this would be top-of-the-Tory-target-pack in the event that Milliken retires...but only by default. In reality, though, this isn't a Huron-Bruce situation so much as a Guelph situation, i.e. enduring Red Tory skepticism has an equal if not better chance of defaulting back to the Liberal safe zone (you think the Grits would just throw it away post-Milliken?!?), or even to a united NDP/Green front outpolling either Grit or Tory. Then again, as if it's any kind of firm benchmark (yeah, as if), one can point to 2008's losing CPC share in Kingston actually being higher than the winning Grit share in Guelph...
    10 01 05 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I don't know if Milliken will run again or not, it all seems to be hard to tell and rumours and articles hinting one or the other. either way Kingston will elect a new mp in the not so distant future i suspect as even if he doesn't retire this election he most certainly won't run in the next one. It should also be mentioned that the liberal vote total in 08 was the lowest in the Kingston riding since the 80's and the lowest number of actual votes Milliken has ever got in the riding. as for the other parties the ndp vote seems to have recovered from the low totals of the 90's but stuck at about 10000 votes. the greens well not a threat to actually win the riding have made big gains here and now get the magic number of 10% of the vote here. The conservative party has since 2004 made gains in the riding and each election has gained at least a couple thousand votes . and with Brian Abrams returning as there candidate they will certainly remain competitive in the riding. so whatever happens its definitely a more competitive race than they were used to in kingston when it used to be an easy liberal win .
    09 12 10 G Stevens
    208.124.191.130
    Word around Ottawa is that a) Milliken will retire, and that b) Kingston and the Islands has been put on the CPC shortlist for ridings to go after.
    There's certainly been a lot of CPC mailers and phone banks going into Kingston, so it looks like those resources are coming. With the polls the way they are, and with Milliken likely out of the picture, my money is on Abrams and the Tories taking this one.
    09 09 11 Stevo
    99.251.76.167
    If Milliken has personal popularity that transcends party politics (and indeed I believe this is the case), then Milliken's falling margin is probably not nearly as bad as it would have been under a generic Lib candidate. In such a scenario, the Conservatives quite likely would have won this seat in 2008. It would only have taken a shift of 3.5 percentage points, and Milliken's personal popularity is certainly worth at least that much. Then again, maybe Kingston likes its 'going against the grain' status as a very rare non-GTA Ontario Liberal seat. We'll need to view the results of one more election before determining where the wind is going.
    09 09 01 MF
    70.52.182.217
    Speaker Milliken's dropping percentage of the vote was directly related to a drop in the popular vote for the Liberals. If the Liberals were able to win here by 4000 votes under Dion, I can't see them losing it now. Kingston remains a liberal island in ultraconservative Eastern Ontario.
    09 08 31 The Jackal
    76.64.165.182
    If Milken were to retire I would say that this will go Conserative but in the meantime he will hang on to this riding
    09 08 24 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    The Tories continue to chip away at Milliken year after year. In '08, he received the lowest vote total he's ever had since being elected in '88, and his lead was less than 4,000. If the Tories devote some resources here, they could steal it away.
    11 04 28 MR
    67.193.198.201
    After seeing the Cogeco debate last night I have to wonder if the NDP riding association intentionally picked a candidate to cause a strategic vote to the Libs. The Whig profile on Beals - that hes good at his ‘job’ being sent on errands to the grocery store to fetch food for the chef wasn't very flattering either. Even most of the left wing ‘activists’ (prison farm etc) are supporting Hsu
    Lib 50%, CPC 35, NDP 10, GRN 5
    11 04 28 M K
    216.221.72.244
    Some riding projections have been showing increasing NDP support in Kingston, at the expense of the Liberals, bringing the race between Hsu and Gordon even tighter. My gut tells me the NDP ‘surge’ is probably not as strong as polling indicates, and Beals does not seem to be standing out in this campaign (other than getting ‘2nd choice’ support from Hsu and Walton at one of the all-candidates forums). That said, the race is probably tighter than ever.
    This could be within a thousand votes in a riding of ~120,000 people.
    11 04 28 JM
    66.228.67.52
    Ontario polls suggest that the Liberals are giving up some ground, so this election will be very, very close, but it will still be between Gordon and Hsu.
    Some points of rebuttal: (see Anni C's notes)
    1. NDP building momentum recently, but to win they would have to double their vote total from last election. That's extremely unlikely.
    2. Kingston has always had lots of govt jobs, low income families, students and pensioners. Maybe they're more likely to vote this year, but not twice as likely.
    3. The Kingstonist poll is not even close to statistically significant. A good poll needs to have a *random* sample. The poll results tell you a lot more about their readership than it does who is going to win.
    4. No, not immune, but also not immune to the fact that in Ontario, conservatives continue to poll above the other parties.
    The campaigns are doing their own internal polling in Kingston and the Islands. They have the best idea of where the race is. Steve Harper will be in Kingston on Friday for a campaign event -- this would not happen if Gordon was not extremely close to Hsu in internal polls.
    I'm adjusting my prediction to Hsu by a smidgen over Gordon.
    p.s. to poster ‘Initial @ 69.7.241.247’ Gordon may be a lot weaker in the debates than the other candidates, but don't make stuff up. From http://www.emckingston.ca/20110421/news/Decision+2011%3A+Your+time+to+choose bio on Gordon: ‘Entered Queen's Phys Ed and took early exit to marry Barry and start a family’
    11 04 28 Andrew M.
    130.15.173.97
    I think this is definitely going to be a Liberal victory. A large number of university students voted in advance polls this past weekend, and the Queen's vote is predominantly Liberal (and definitely not Conservative for the most part). Hsu has done an excellent job targetting the university vote, having people campaigning on campus, and offering rides to students to go vote.
    Additionally, while I know that lawn signs are not a good indication of popularity, I have seen a lot more Hsu signs than other parties. While I would not rule out a strong showing by Beals, the NDP candidate, I think this riding stays Liberal on May 2nd.



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