Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Ochil and South Perthshire


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:17:39
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Scottish National Party
Annabelle Ewing
UK Independence Party
David Bushby
Conservative Party
Gerald Michaluk
Labour Party
Gordon Banks
Liberal Democrats
Graeme Littlejohn
Scottish Green Party
Hilary Charles

Incumbent:
Gordon Banks
Ochil & South Perthshire (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
71738
2005
70731

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
14645
10021
6218
13957
Other
1856

 


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10 04 28 JFBreton
207.134.225.57
SNP gain: 1) not a real conservatives land; 2) a very good performance of LibDems on national scene; 3) Labour third in last polls on national scene. So, split of the vote and SNP gain.
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
129.215.90.50
I'm trying to be consistent here, so I'll predict a Nat gain in Ochil and South Perthshire for the same reason I'm predicting a LibDem gain in Edinburgh South.
10 01 04 Akava77
82.41.245.11
The SNP were only a few hundred votes behind Labour in 2005, and the SNP do hold the corresponding Holyrood seat. This is a very likely SNP gain, and probably one of the top target seats.



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