Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

York Centre


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:21:29
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Epstein, David

Fagan, John

Kwinter, Monte

Mostyn, Michael

Pancer, Jeff

Shevyryov, Yuriy

Tal, Ron

Incumbent:
Monte Kwinter

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * MONTE KWINTER
    16,64648.73%
    IGOR TOUTCHINSKI
    11,02832.28%
    CLAUDIA RODRIGUEZ
    3,71310.87%
    MARIJA MINIC
    2,2076.46%
    MARILYN CARVALHO
    5681.66%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1793757.12%
    837926.68%
    335210.67%


  •  


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    11 10 04 Ottawa LFC
    134.117.254.249
    Of all seats in the province, Hudak's ‘It's time for a change’ line is most relevant in this surburban 416 seat. While working for Mark, people were telling me at the doors that Ken would go in May, and Monte was next. One of the few seats that the PC's will compete in, but look for this one to go blue.
    11 10 03 Pete B.
    99.233.234.56
    I now think that this is the only possible gain for PC in Toronto. Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Eglinton Lawrence, DVE and DVW are all outside their grasp at this point. Unless there is a meltdown of the NDP vote in the rifing, and it all goes Liberal, this should be the sole PC MPP from Toronto.
    11 09 30 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Who would've thought that this riding will be too close to call. Who would've thought that someone like Monte Kwinter would be in trouble in a riding which he's held for over a quarter of a century, not to mention the party that's held the seat ever since one can remember is likely to change hands. Well it might happen this time around.
    11 09 30 MH
    70.50.66.112
    With the Liberals running well ahead of the Conservatives in 416, this constituency is clearly Monte Kwinter's to lose. If he loses it, the reason will probably be an increase in the NDP vote at Liberal expense. In a head-to-head fight Kwinter should beat Mostyn, but the NDP vote will almost certainly be higher than in 2007. How much higher? This will be interesting to watch on election night.
    11 09 26 J.O.
    99.245.102.89
    Mayor Rob Ford is a major drag on the Conservative vote. His popularity is sinking like a stone after breaking his pledge to balance the city budget without cutting services. Voters in the 416 realize that Tim Hudak is also promising to balance the books by finding efficiencies that he has yet to identify. That is too scary a proposition for voters here who are sure to return Kwinter to Queen's Park for yet another term.
    11 09 26 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The Hudak campaign has failed in Toronto as the Tories are running a very weak third. That is what is going to cost the Tories seats like York Centre. Kwinter still has big name recognition in this riding and will hang on for another term.
    11 09 24 JM
    99.227.2.132
    Michael Mostyn will win. He has canvassed for months while Kwinter has been MIA. Monte's idea of canvassing is to wave at cars on Bathurst Street. Also, the Jewish community has trended towards the Tories in recent years.
    11 09 24 YorkCentrevoter
    99.227.2.132
    Michael Mostyn should pull off a victory on election night. The fact is that Monte Kwinter does not canvass, and Mostyn has been canvassing for months. Furthermore, if you look at the federal results, the polls in the Russian speaking area of York Centre (especially the apartments around Bathurst and Steeles) were overwhelmingly Tory. It will likely be the same provincially, as those Russian speaking polls voted for Mostyn when he was a federal candidate in 2004 and 2006.
    If there's one Liberal MPP in the 416 who is likely to be defeated, it's Monte Kwitner. Mostyn has simply run a better campaign and Kwinter is largely MIA.
    11 09 22 Not Non-Partisan
    174.94.2.190
    In a bad Tory year, 2007, Kwinter beat a lacklustre PC candidate (Toutchinski, who also couldn't beat Mike Feldman) by only 5,000 votes. In a lesser year (2011) will Kwinter, now 80 years old, perform better or worse. His party is doing worse. Mostyn is aggressive and he has the help of Mark Adler the new M.P. I think that the Tories will win this and also Thornhill, where Shurman will fend off Farber. The Jewish vote has moved, probably for a long time. Should give Colle some concern in Eg-Lawr.
    11 09 22 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    With the Tories now running third in Toronto a seat like York Centre is out of reach for them. The NDP aren't going to split enough votes from Kwinter to make this any kind of race. I think Kwinter will hang on to the seat and win by 3000 votes.
    11 09 20 Edmund O'Connor
    70.29.12.122
    Apropo of what has already been said, I would be very surprised that if (a) Kwinter keeps his seat (likely) and (b) Bernie Farber doesn't win Thornhill (also likely), we could well be seeing a by-election here in 2012 with Farber as the OLP candidate. The Liberals can see the optics as well as anyone.
    11 09 14 MF
    74.15.65.107
    It's true that Ken Dryden may have had a higher profile than outside the riding than Monte Kwinter, but Kwinter has strong community ties that Dryden lacked. Plus McGuinty is not Ignatieff. Kwinter plays well with the ‘Bathurst Manor bubbies’ but yes, his age might be a bit of a liability. But not enough to withstand the overall provincial trend. Not to mention there's no school funding issue this time.
    I also agree that Bernie Farber's Thornhill run might have some spillover effect for the Liberals. Indeed, if Farber wanted to run in an already Liberal-held seat, this would have been the perfect riding, given that the CJC's headquarters were in the riding.
    11 09 13 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    No, this wasn't the federal Tories' #1 target in Toronto. That would be Eglinton-Lawrence.
    The provincial PCs certainly have reason to target this riding, however. Monte Kwinter has been around forever with not much to show for his many years in government and politics in general. Urban voters tend to vote based on parties rather than the merits of individual candidates, but Mostyn is an experienced, energetic campaigner and he may have what it takes to send the 80-year Kwinter into retirement. The newly-minted federal Conservative MP could even be called in to help campaign with Mostyn.
    11 09 10 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Maybe what's most remarkable here is that Monte Kwinter is already 80 years old and yet he's giving it another go--when's the last time an octogenarian ran for re-election in Ontario? (Or in Canada? Dief in '79?) So, in addition to all the general electoral dynamics shifting away from the Grits, don't be surprised if *that* factors in here now--then again, Kwinter's mitigating factor is that he's already ?Blue Jew in Liberal Red? enough, which allowed him to survive '07 with greater ease than others might have (and now with the possible collateral help of Bernie Farber running in Thornhill). But, still--he's old. And Michael Mostyn isn't. For all one knows, *this* might be the PCs' critical beachhead in the 416, ahead of all others...
    11 09 02 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    This seat was Tory target #1 in the federal election. If they were able to beat Ken Dryden, then they can theoretically pick this one off of a former cabinet minister. However, Kwinter is Jewish, and this seat has a high Jewish population. The question is, where will the Jewish vote go? The PC candidate is also Jewish. However, if the Jews didn't vote Tory last time when they did in neighbouring Thornhill, will they do it this time? The PC candidate in 2003 was at least Jewish friendly if not Jewish himself.
    11 08 29 Marshall Howard Bader
    70.50.221.125
    This one is too close to call. Kwinter is invisible. It went Tory federally even with an all star candidate (Ken Dryden). The NDP vote is on the rise.
    11 08 19 junkie
    72.39.148.112
    The NDP has a campaign this time and a candidate with name recognition that will be enough to let Monty cruise to victory watch to see the money spent in the riding and who ‘pops’ in for a visit
    11 08 07 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding could be one of the most likely pc pickups in Toronto , think when looking thru the toronto ridings this one stands out as one where conservative support has grown significantly . it recently flipped federally and we shouldn't be surprised if it does the same provincially as well. Michael Mostyn is a good candidate for the provincial conservatives and did a good job as candidate when he ran here federally in 04 and 06. liberals are obvivously hoping Monte Kwinter holds the riding based on name recognition but i'm not sure that be enough this year.
    11 04 06 ZedJ
    99.226.115.250
    Monte falls asleep during the campaign. Mostyn fights a hard campaign. Monte wakes up and realizes he's out of a job...and goes back to sleep.
    11 03 15 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Monte can go on vacation during the campaign and still win a landslide.



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