Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Durham


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Barnicoat, Blaize

O'Toole, John

Somerville, Betty

Strutt, David

Terry, James

Yaghledjian, Edward

Incumbent:
John O'Toole

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JOHN O'TOOLE
    21,51546.96%
    BETTY LOUISE SOMERVILLE
    14,73032.15%
    CATHERINE ROBINSON
    5,52112.05%
    JUNE DAVIES
    4,0538.85%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1466435.67%
    2020949.17%
    445610.84%


  •  


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    11 09 24 MS from Durham
    174.118.212.215
    The old saying goes that in this riding the PC's could run a dog and win. Watching John O'toole in the local debate the other night (and over the last 16 years), that old saying seems true in a political sense.
    While O'toole sure does not show the ability of a 15-year Member, it appears, looking at the polls, that he will walk in with little difficulty again.
    Still best known for getting caught on camera making a rude gesture, and then denying, he should win by a slightly smaller margin than 07.
    11 09 22 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Unless Hudak does a Larry Grossman, a likely John O'Toole sleepwalk to the finish line. The most exciting thing here being Libertarian candidate Blaize Barnicoat, who looks exactly like her name suggests. (How the Sexiest Election Candidate poll overlooked her, I don't know--maybe they feared she'd crash the system.)
    11 09 08 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    John O’toole will continue to hold this riding , i don’t see the liberals or ndp posing enough of a challenge to him . looks like Betty Somerville is back for the liberals and i would expect there vote to stay about the same or go down a little bit. anyways if O’toole could survive 07 elections there is little doubt he has the advantage this year.
    11 03 27 Josh
    99.225.165.16
    Care to elaborate, Durham Gal? O'Toole won handily in '03 and again in '07, bucking the provincial trend. With PC numbers up across the province, an easy victory for O'Toole once again.
    11 02 18 Durham Gal
    99.231.110.208
    John O'Toole usually wins by about five grand, but he has told his riding a big big lie and it is going to come home to haunt him and the conservatives in this riding at the next election.



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