Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Kingston and the Islands


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Best, David

Busch, Paul

Caracciolo, David

Gerretsen, John

Holland, Mary Rita

James, Rodger

Kiley, Robert

Shaw, Jamie

Incumbent:
Hon John Gerretsen

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JOHN GERRETSEN
    23,27747.23%
    JOHN RAPIN
    11,00122.32%
    RICK DOWNES
    10,12920.55%
    BRIDGET DOHERTY
    4,3218.77%
    CHRIS BENETEAU
    4190.85%
    MARK FOURNIER
    1370.28%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2644259.71%
    880319.87%
    518211.70%


  •  


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    11 10 04 Kingstonian
    67.193.113.95
    The Liberals will take this riding, but with a reduced margin. Ted Hsu retained the seat federally after Peter Milliken stepped down, and Kingston is now the only patch of Liberal red on an otherwise blue Ontario map east of Toronto (excluding Ottawa). The City is only part of the riding, true; but 4/5 of the population lives in the City itself. Recent polling puts the Liberals ahead by up to 10 points, which strengthens Gerretson's position.
    11 10 02 Anni
    184.175.9.132
    In my last post I failed to make a prediction, but this time I will;
    Hill & Knowlton Election Predictor puts the Librals at 35.5% and the NDP at 35.3%.
    What does this mean...well considering mrgin of error and such, it means that the NDP and the Liberals essentially have n equal shot at this (and no matter what people sy, I have not seen a single poll tht shows the Conservatives have any shot at this riding at all).
    The reason I go from saying they are tied to predicting an NDP win is simply momentum. NDP have been gaining in Kingston and Ontario in this last week with significant gains in Kingston. If the NDP made it from 25-35% in polls, then I have no doubt they can make it to a win.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Actually, while ?less? NDP by nature, the more suburban/rural parts of Kingston aren't so fatally averse as to tip things away from the NDP, necessarily--or at least insofar as they haven't been enough to tip the seat *toward* the federal Tories. Kingston at large is ?left-ish? by nature, and that includes the Red Tories of old. But the trouble for the NDP is, the Liberals--through incumbency, and by usurping a lot of the Red Tory base--have come to hog the picture. In fact, even the ?student vote? thing hasn't necessarily worked out on the NDP's behalf; though federally, that might have had something to do with Iggy's academic cred making him a sexier choice among the mortar-board set. Maybe an advantage for the NDP here is that the provincial Liberals in their present state are more rejectably ?government establishment? than their current UK-LibDem-esque federal counterparts--so it's not prepostrous for them to be running competitively here (as they did with Rick Downes last time). All I can say is that if Gerretsen weren't running again, I'd indeed give the NDP a chance--more so than the Tories, oddly enough...
    11 09 27 jeff316
    76.10.134.59
    M K is correct. As a former resident I can appreciate how people living in the inner wards can forget that this riding includes places like Pittsburgh. Joyceville. Howe and Wolfe Islands. Westbrook. Mount Chesney. Amherstview. Elginburg. Glenburnie. All sorts of places someone living downtown would never even visit. All sorts of places that will never vote NDP. If the riding ran from John A east to the river, from John Counter south to the lake, the NDP might stand a chance but even then they’d likely only manage second to the Liberal first.
    11 09 27 Law Student
    76.10.140.229
    First, the NDP support has been growing fastest in Kingston amongst middle-class residents living in the West, at the expence of Conservatives. We could talk at length about why exactly this is happening, or how it doesn't even really make sense...but that fact is that while the downtown core seems to be the base of traditional support for the NDP, it is also not growing downtown. It is growing in the West, areas where traditionally people do not even really take many signs but now are taking many NDP lawn signs - another unusual occurance.
    Second, college/university/RMC students in Kingston make up approximately 20,000 (1/5 of the population of Kingston). So, if it is true that the NDP are making gains amongst students and working youth (as they seem to be from most working youth I know) and if, in fact, for once the young people of Kingston are actually showing up and voting (thanks to a tremendous campaign by a group of non-partisan students) then YES it IS enough to swing the entire riding. That is IF the young people are actually going out and voting, and voting NDP as much as it seems.
    Lets also keep one big factor in mind, a forum research poll in Kingston (which puts the NDP is second) would require people who have phones in order to call them. Lets also keep in mind that MANY traditional NDP voters and potential NDP voters (students, working youth, working poor, those who do not stay in one place for too long, etc.) do not actually have those phones and are essentially left out of the ‘random telephone polling.’ For that reason, and it is one substantiated by the experience of past elections, I usually put Green and NDP votes slightly higher than any poll predicts. For the NDP, I'd say if a poll says Mary Rita is at 31%, its a safe bet shes actually at 33%.
    Finally, the debate. So IF McGuinty screws up the leaders debate (as he very well might). IF Hudak is not impressive enough. And IF Andrea Horwath can sufficiently prove herself as a capable leader, then that can actually give the NDP the push they need to win Kingston.
    So yes, by claim that the NDP will win this riding depends on a lot of IFs. IF students vote. IF they vote NDP. IF the NDP makes enough gains in the West. IF Andrea proves herself. But I am fairly certain enough of theses IFs will happen to give the NDP a significant chance of beating the Liberals, if not by much.
    11 09 26 M K
    72.38.99.194
    Don't get me wrong SS, I'd be happy if the vote swung NDP and they won in Kingston. It's just not likely to happen. The recent Forum Research poll did put them at second in our riding, but there aren't enough students in Kingston to swing it to that degree. I know the air downtown may ‘feel’ a certain way, but get out to the west end or the east end once in a while.
    This is, of course, barring a Laytonesque post-debate surge for Horwath (not Holland). It would take that for Gerretsen to lose this.
    11 09 24 SS
    67.193.252.133
    My NDP prediction is because the students ARE actually voting this time, and YES, the support for the NDP among them is pretty darn close to universal. I work there 50 hours a week and have done so for fifteen years and I've never seen the entire university get this excited over an election before. And there's only one party that's really provoking their excitement. Not sure why, because the Liberal promise of a 30% tuition cut should have resonated with them, but who knows. Students have never been a big variable in Kingston because they tend to be divided amongst the progressive parties (historically NDP-Liberal split, nowadays NDP-Liberal-Green split) and their turnout tends to be low. This time its different, I can feel it. The advance polls on Queens Campus which are in the same building as where I work have been flooded all week--by head count, I'd say somewhere between 6000 and 10000 students have voted so far. And the actual election isn't even here yet!
    The Kingston community also seems to be a bit more orange than before, especially in the central area. Again, I think it will be close, but with thousands of never-before NDP votes from students combined with a mild Liberal-to-NDP swing in the non-student vote, Kingston could very well surprise us all on October 6th. A lot of it hinges on the debates next week--if Andrea Horwath manages to elevate herself to ‘Andreamania’ (which she could do with a good debate performance given the general vote disatisfaction with both Hudak and McGuinty), this will be the first to fall prey to it.
    11 09 23 Duffman
    67.193.124.137
    SS is dreaming when suggesting that the students will decide this election in Kingston. Even if a large proportion of students came out to vote (possible, but unlikely), to assume that they would tip the balance in this riding is ludicrous.
    While students might be more left-leaning than the rest of the population, there is hardly unanimous support for the NDP on campus. The business school is hardly full of social democrats, now is it?
    In the recent federal election, the Liberals ran a first-time candidate who was hardly a household name and still held the seat as the were destroyed elsewhere. In the municipal election, the MPP's son easily won election as mayor...at least in part on his father's coattails.
    11 09 23 Marco Ricci
    99.248.110.65
    It would be quite unusual if the NDP were to win here. The only time the NDP ever won the riding was in 1995 when Bob Rae won a majority. And in the federal election earlier this year there were many people predicting that the NDP would do well in Kingston, with Jack Layton even visiting here in the last day of the campaign, and it still finished 3rd. As someone else pointed out, despite the disastrous federal results in Ontario for the Liberals, they still managed to hold onto this seat even with a new candidate, so there appears to still be a strong Liberal base here. The deciding factor may be Gerretson. The fact that he is still the incumbent and knows the riding well may give him the edge. If there was no incumbent, a change of result would be more likely. But for the moment, I think it's leaning Liberal.
    11 09 22 Love Game
    66.203.207.68
    Kingston & the Islands is much more than Queen's University! (Having lived a portion of my life in the area, I can say this with confidence).
    Kingston & the Islands is made up of students, a lot of senior citizens and the military as well as farmers and prison workers.
    The Liberals have not done anything to truly annoy the majority of voters in the Kingston area and John Gerretsen has been a positive politician as mayor and MPP.
    Even when Mike Harris' Common Sense Revolution took Eastern Ontario by storm this riding remained Liberal.
    This is a Liberal hold.
    11 09 21 SS
    72.38.191.210
    I live in Kingston, and I believe it will go NDP this time, but narrowly. Provincially, the NDP are gaining huge momentum, being up 10 percentage points in polls. Now although last time the Liberals had a lead of 25 percentage points over the NDP, NDP momentum will still be enough to carry Kingston. Why? The students. 1 in 4 Kingston voters are under the age of 30, making it easily the most youthful electoral district in the province. And judging by the amount of excitement I see on Queens University campus about the election, I believe the student turnout will be very high this year. And youth have been swayed to the NDP more than any other demographic in this province. All polls that divide results by age show the NDP have a commanding lead in the 18-30 voting demographic. The HST has made life very difficult for the students because HST applies to dormitory fees as well as heating and electricity bills, and the students are not going to forget that. The local candidates debate on Queens campus was easily won by Mary Rita Holland.
    And even outside of the student community, the NDP are much more popular than before. Although lawn signs are of course not an accurate measure of candidate popularly, practically all the private property lawn signs are NDP. In the Inner Harbour district (which is mostly non-student) where I live, in 2007 every single house had a Liberal sign, now they all have NDP signs. Add to that the fact that John Gerretson is not that popular anymore because of his recent habit of ignoring constituents. So yes, I see an NDP victory in Kingston, although with the Liberals having a strong historic attachment to this riding it will probably be close.
    11 09 20 binriso
    142.167.174.81
    Leaning Liberal for sure but if the NDP are strong (like they have been 25%+ strong) they might have a chance. I am quite certain the PCs are going to be in 3rd place here.
    11 09 20 Queenie
    67.193.249.76
    Lets keep in mind that the Federal Parties are, in the case of the Liberals and the Conservatives, NOT the same parties. As such many voters, including myself, do not vote the same Provincially and Federally.
    That being said, lets also look at the facts. While the Liberals and the PCs seem to have the most large signs on public property (and the Greens surprisingly have some now too) the NDP are dominating the private property lawn signs - including a number of locations that had Liberal signs in the Federal election.
    Also, as far as the Liberal incumbant, there are a large number of people active in the Kingston community who are displeased at never having their phone calls returned, or having their very 'liberal' concerns being ignored.
    Also, labour unions and small businesses in Kingston, who have been Liberal throughout Ontario in the past decade, are turning on Gerretsen for his very poor effort at listening to, caring for, and acting upon the issues of labour and small business in Kingston.
    With the NDP gaining momentum, the Conservatives losing it, and the Liberals with a poor history in the incumbent and the leader, due at the minimum for the possible of vote splitting or a unbroadcast disatisfaction with the Liberal incumbant, I would call this at the very lease ?too close to call.?
    11 09 15 M K
    72.38.99.194
    Still looking like a win for Gerretsen. He is well respected in Kingston, his son is holding his own (so far) as mayor, and he has been visible in town all summer announcing Eastern Ontario Development Fund grants.
    This riding was one of only 34 in the nation to go Liberal in the federal election, and that was by a good margin with an untested candidate. Similarly to Hsu winning despite Ignatieff's unpopularity, Gerretsen will win despite McGuinty's unpopularity.
    11 09 13 Bob Heaslip
    206.53.157.131
    I see that everyone so far thinks Garretsen will win. I don't. The campaign is just getting started. I think once people have had a chance to look at his record they will reconsider. They will look at their lawns full of weeds, they will remember all the promised green jobs that never happened. They will remember that the liberals under his watch took power away from the municipalities to have any say about the windmills being put in their back yards. They will think about the envirotax scandal that cost him his environment ministry. They will think about the extra cost tacked on when they buy a can of paint. He has a lot of baggage that makes him very susceptible to attack. His only hope is that the other candidates don't have the ability to take advantage or the vote splits and he comes up the middle.
    11 05 29 B.O.
    142.204.16.10
    This was one of 11 ridings to stay Liberal in Ontario in the May 2 federal election. In fact, Liberal support went up slightly from the 2008 results, increasing to 39.3% from 39.1% in 2008. This was also one of only two ridings across Canada to elect a non-incumbent Liberal to Parliament on May 2. Thus I would be extremely surprised if this riding went Conservative provincially. I reserve the right to change my prediction if things start going really, really, really badly for the provincial Liberals. But remember things went really realy realy badly for the federal Liberals in the May 2 federal election and they still held this seat, so things would have to start going even worse than that for the provincial Liberals before I would change my prediction for this seat.
    11 05 10 Love Game
    66.203.207.68
    Given that there has been no surge (yet) away from the Liberals and that the MPP for this riding is a well known and well-liked individual, this should still be Liberal country.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    206.248.177.14
    With Gerretsen's hemming and hawing about whether or not to run again, it was obvious that the plan was for his son, a one-term city councillor, to take a run at the mayoralty as a means of getting the necessary exposure to replace his retiring father in the 2011 provincial race. What was completely unexpected was his son winning the mayor's race - leaving the elder Gerretsen with no no option but to go for a fourth term, lest he abandon ship and screw the party over completely. He'll will win, but it'll be very close - the scare of his political life for his last term in office.
    11 02 24 MF
    74.15.64.37
    Surrounded by bedrock conservative Eastern Ontario, Kingston is a small-?l? liberal city with a major university and a lot of public sector workers. Kingston rejected Harris twice and I don't see the Tories under Hudak doing any better.
    11 02 19 Craig
    70.30.72.61
    Despite being caught in controversy over the eco-fee issue, John Gerretsen is very popular here. If he doesn't step down, he should win a fifth term fairly easily. The PC's have to be very careful here as this is traditionally a Red Tory/Liberal riding despite being surrounded by some of the most devoutly conservative ridings in Ontario. The NDP vote is also quite high here, and if it appears the Liberals will lose power, the NDP may be undercut to block the PC's as in many centre-left ridings.



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