Federal Riding Prediction
Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election
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| ||11 10 05
|I have to admit I was surprised when this riding was changed was moved to the too close to call group. Michael Prue has won this seat without much of a challenge since winning the by-election over Bob Hunter. The NDP are a solid second in Toronto and Liberal Helen Burstyn has run a weak campaign. Prue has his traditional East York base from his municipal days in the north end of the riding and the NDP run slightly ahead of the Liberals in the Beach. That will be more than enough for another NDP victory.|
| ||11 10 03
|An updated riding specific poll of Beaches-East York, conducted after the debate, with 950 respondents in the riding - shows Michael Prue of the NDP with a substantial 12-pt lead. That's well outside the margin of error. I think Prue is pulling ahead. |
| ||11 09 26
|The ‘sources’ you're talking about did not reveal the actual question asked by the survey robocall. The questions were-to paraphrase (1) who would make the best Premier? I don't think Michael Prue would have polled ahead on these questions in ANY election - including the one where he got a majority of the vote. Support for Michael Prue is very personal. A large chunk of voters in East York, in particular, don't even have a strong association between him and any particular party. They just know ‘I support Michael Prue’. That is because they got to know him as a non-partisan Mayor and city councillor. Add to that the fact that many New Democratic supporters would be fine with a McGuinty government, even though they're supporting the NDP in their riding.|
Notwithstanding a slow start, the sign ratio this year is now the same as or better than it was in 2007, when Prue won by a huge margin.
FYI, the same poll has the Liberals loosing in the Premier's home riding.
| ||11 09 24
||Marshall Howard Bader|
|Had it confirmed by a number of sources that Prue is in trouble here. The Libs are now targeting the riding as many voters who like the NDP and Andrea Horwath want to get rid of Prue. This is especially strong in the Beach. Also the new massive forum poll makes it clear that this riding is in play.|
Add to this that Prue is continuing to upset the Catholic community in the north of the riding with is anti-Catholic school rants and he could go down on election night.
| ||11 09 21
|If you can win solely by force of personality, Chris Menary will do it. The guy is a one-man campaign machine. I don't think he has a lot of volunteers but he is just constantly on the street and is getting sign locations in unusual places. Look at Main Street in East York. Kind of a revelation that he is out-signing the others. Prue seems to be coasting and while Burstyn is a good choice for the Libs, she doesn't seem to have much campaign. I haven't got any lit from her, just an autodialer, or from Prue (except for the obligatory householder on election eve). The Dippers have now held the Beach part of this riding for all but four years since 1963. I know its a stretch but I really think Menary has a shot.|
| ||11 09 17
|Drove through the length of the riding today along St. Clair and O'Connor and her is the lawn sign count NDP 34, PC 45, Lib 29. Seems quite close for someone who is supposed to have the riding in the bag.|
| ||11 09 15
|I'm a Ford-votin', libertarianish Tory, but anyone who thinks the PCs have a chance here should lay off the bongwater. Prue would have to be caught in a scandal of biblical proportions to lose this seat, and then the Liberals would have to run Mike Harris to lose. |
As for ‘star candidate’ Burstyn, please. Very little, if any, local recognition. I can't wait for other Liberal star candidates, maybe Eorge Clooney or Rad Pitt...
| ||11 09 13
|Will stay NDP, but watch the second place which make it quite plausible to go PC as there is a quite good old PC base in this riding.|
| ||11 09 08
|If the hardcore cheesed-off Catholic community held a Colorado-Springs-evangelical sway over B-EY that’d make Ford Nation blush, *then* Prue would be endangered by the PCs--otherwise, any stance he had is water under the bridge now (and a trickle, at that). Besides, the ‘anti-Prue’ electoral spotlight’s been hugged by the Liberals running their most illustrious candidate here in eons--though under the circumstance, it’s more likely a practice run for Burstyn en route to future, more serious byelectoral or electoral bids elsewhere (or even here, federally).|
| ||11 08 30
||Marshall Howard Bader|
|BO and Dan I am just saying that this could be much closer than you think. Michael Prue has brought this on himself. He has upset the Catholic community over his stand against publicly funded Catholic ed. He can nuance this all he likes but he and his supporters were very clear on their views on this subject and it wasn't just about having a debate. Add to this that he finished a poor forth in the leadership campaign and that there is a rightward shift in the Beach. I think Prue is in trouble here (probably the only NDPer in the province who is in trouble by the way).|
| ||11 07 21
|I really doubt the sincerity of anyone who claims to believe this isn't going to Michael Prue of the NDP. That isn't just because some of them (I'm looking at you, Oracle and Marshall) are referring to dubious new ‘information’ that the average voter has never heard of (I haven't heard of it and I'm a BEY political junkie). |
First, Michael Prue has won this riding by very strong margins even in years when the NDP was demolished at the provincial level (for example, he was first elected in 2003, when the NDP took only 12% of the popular vote). The New Democrats are now polling much higher (around 22%) and unlike many other incumbents, Prue has kept up the very strong community presence and constituency work needed to maintain his standing (I've never been at a community event where he wasn't present). I asked Eric Grenier, of threehundredeight.com for his projection of this riding, and he had it at NDP: 50%, CON: 20%, LIB: 19%, WITHOUT even taking into account the NDP's recent federal results in the riding.
Second, the NDP's organization seems considerably stronger now than it was even in the previous provincial election. As an example, they had no less than four (4) separate booths at this year's East York Canada day celebrations (Riding Association, Member of Parliament, MPP, and an affiliated neighborhood association), each staffed with YOUNG (20-30 yo), clean-cut volunteers. (By contrast, the conservatives were absent, and the libs had one booth, staffed by out-of-riding people, that had dissappeared by noon).
Third, but by no means least important, we cannot ignore the dramatic leap in the ridings NDP fortunes during the last federal election. The NDP vote grew by 10% while the LIB vote fell 10%. Of roughly 200 polls, the Liberals won only 9, the Cons 15, and ALL of the rest went to the New Democrats. It is difficult to imagine the Liberal organization, whose provincial/federal base overlaps so much, recovering from that disaster in only 6 months.
For greater clarity, I predict a win by Michael Prue, with the Libs relegated to third place.
| ||11 07 11
|Marshall Howard Bader, you seem to be forgetting about the federal election results in this riding. Yes Sandra Bussin lost, but the NDP won Beaches--East York by 10 percentage points in the recent federal election. Why do people keep assuming that everyone who uses the Catholic school system will abandon Prue in droves. He is not the leader of the NDP and will not be pursuing any such policy, never explicitly called for the abolition of the Catholic school system (just called for the NDP to reexamine the issue and come to conclusions after study) and will certainly not be campaigning on abolishing the Catholic school system during the election. He has been extremely popular in East York for a very long time and I don't see that changing in this coming election. As for the Conservatives, the Tories won 22.74% of the vote in Beaches-East York in the recent federal election, compared to a whopping 44% for the Tories in Ontario provincewide in the federal election. If 44% provincewide only gets 22.74% in this riding, it would take a heck of a lot for the Tories to win this riding provincially. In the 1999 provincial election when the Tories were at 45% provincewide,the Tories got 29% here. Getting more than 29% with the popular Michael Prue running will be very difficult for the Tories and I don't see how Prue wouldn't win this riding again.|
| ||11 07 08
||Marshall Howard Bader|
|Look for an upset here. Even though the NDP will do very well across the province Prue will be in trouble for a number of reasons. The large Italian community in the north end which had voted for him in the past will not likely support him as he is viewed to be hostile to publicly funded Catholic education. Sandra Busin's loss also indicates unhappiness with the left in the beaches. This one may be a big surprise on election night.|
| ||11 06 11
|Don't give up on the Liberals. They have recently put in place a star candidate in Helen Burnstyn. She will ignite the Liberal forces who are eager for a fight after Maria Minna went down. |
| ||11 05 26
|Prue never called for ending Catholic school funding and even if he did he'd get re-elected as a former local mayor during the amalgamation days and as one of the NDP's most personable politicians.|
Editor?s note: See http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/462889
| ||11 03 26
|Michael Prue's leadership plank calling for the end of the Catholic School Boards will certainly hurt his chances in the upcoming election.|
| ||11 02 18
|Although the NDP lost a lot of votes here last time, it was almost totally to the Green Party. The Liberals gained a bit but will lose some votes this time around and there could be a 3-way race for 2nd this time with the Liberals, PC's and Greens, but 30 or more points back of the NDP.|