Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Niagara West-Glanbrook


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Augustine, Gerry

Cross, Meredith

Hudak, Tim

Lees, Phil

Marco, Anthony

Peacock, Geoff

Poos, Marty

Trombetta, Katie

Wienhold, Rob

Incumbent:
Tim Hudak

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * TIM HUDAK
    24,31151.06%
    MIKE LOSTRACCO
    14,29030.01%
    BONNIE BRYAN
    5,80912.20%
    SID FRERE
    3,2066.73%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1533435.76%
    2030647.36%
    587413.70%


  •  

    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    As Tory strongholds go, NW-Glanbrook is a quirky as Zooey Deschanel. It's got all that Bible Belt agricultural interior, *plus* escarpment/wine-country gentrification, *plus* Liberal-or-even-NDP-leaning suburban-fringe outposts at Stoney Creek and Pelham, and all of that modestly mushed together in Grimsby in the centre of it all. (The perfect psephological funhouse of a 1990 3-way-marginal NDP seat, in other words.) And...none of it is part of what first elected Hudak in 1995. Which makes it even *more* interesting. Not that Hudak would be terribly vulnerable here--the evangelical base is solid enough, and as for the rest, Hudak's a solid triangulator. The problem is to translate such triangulation province-wide; which may be Hudak's leadership dilemma thus far. But the locals wouldn't argue.
    11 09 03 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I expect Tim Hudak to be personally attacked like crazy this election by the ontario liberals and union group called working families . that is an unfortunate reality of being a opposition leader these days. he won't have any trouble in his own riding though , very much a conservative area and he is personally likeable in this riding an easy hold.
    11 08 29 MHB
    70.50.221.125
    With regrets I have to call this one for Tory Boss Hudak. He will lose Stoney Creek but pick up the radically Conservative rural vote here.
    11 07 22 robert
    70.55.6.99
    Hate having to pick Tim Hudek. But i highlight the fact that the NDP is running a Hamilton OSSTF VP. Will Marco make public education an important issue in NWG? There is lots of concerns with Hudek and what he would do with public educatin if elected to a majority govt this fall.
    11 03 21 BG
    173.238.90.29
    Tim Hudak has only won Niagara West-Glanbrook once. He was previously elected under the Erie riding, which was subsequently divided up. If he remained in his hometown of Fort Erie it would have required him to run against a popular Liberal, Kim Craitor. Instead he ran in a very safe Conservative riding. He will easily win this riding for a second time.
    11 02 18 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This is Tim Hudak's riding. Tim's won here 4 times in a row, he's the party leader, so he should have no problems hanging on to his seat.



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