Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Oak Ridges-Markham


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boelling, Karl

Haitas, Trifon

Jaczek, Helena

Lu, Ruida

Wassef, Farid

Whitfeld, Joe

Incumbent:
Helena Jaczek

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    HELENA JACZEK
    28,56448.22%
    PHIL BANNON
    21,36736.07%
    JANICE HAGAN
    4,6987.93%
    ATTILA NAGY
    3,8156.44%
    PATRICK REDMOND
    4550.77%
    DOUG RANSOM
    3420.58%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1871640.79%
    2257849.21%
    276506.02%


  •  


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    11 10 04 AD
    24.246.31.39
    Certainly not a high profile riding, but I think this may be a close race. The incumbant should be able to hold this seat based on the current polling trend. The PCs could win here if they manage to shore up their numbers but at this stage in the election I don't see this as too likely. I predict Liberal hold.
    11 10 04 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    Oak Ridges Markham will be a Liberal hold for Helena Jaczek as the NDP didn't nominate much of a candidate in Tirfon Haitas. This means the NDP won't be able to take enough of the Liberal vote to allow Tory candidate Farid Wassef to take the seat. Jaczek's margain of victory will be smaller than 2007 but she will hold the seat. It's all about the vote splits.
    11 09 27 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    I can't say Jaczek is ‘low profile’ so much as she's been squeezed out of higher positions by an overequipped Liberal caucus. And as far as the seat only going Liberal in 2007; well, it's only really *existed* since 2007, and Jaczek won on the back of her strong 2003 run against Frank Klees, and growth trends ‘favour’ her according to 2007 electoral patterns. Unfortunately, federal trends have made mush out of those patterns...at least, federally speaking. Provincially, the jury's still out...
    11 07 31 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This ridings location and low profile liberal incumbent make for an interesting race. this riding should be in play for the Ontario pc's if there numbers stay high , it will be a challenge for Helena Jaczek to hold onto the riding this year and not likely to be won by an opposition mpp on election night. overall one would expect the York region ridings to be very competitive this year and could see the conservatives gain some seats if Tim Hudak remains on top in the polls.
    11 03 20 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    This is likely a Tory pickup. The Conservatives are up in the polls (the latest polls give Hudak a 9-pt lead) and general consensus (at least now) is that they will pick up some seats. Given the Tory history (it only went Liberal in 2007), its prime to swing back to the PCs.



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