Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Bramalea-Gore-Malton


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:30:04
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Kular, Kuldip

Lee, Joy

Maingi, Sanjeev

McLachlan, Archie

O'Marra, Linda

Singh, Jagmeet

Thornham, Pauline

Incumbent:
Kuldip Kular

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * KULDIP KULAR
    19,10647.00%
    PAM HUNDAL
    11,93429.36%
    GLENN CROWE
    5,01612.34%
    BRUCE HAINES
    4,12010.14%
    GARY NAIL
    4711.16%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1378242.70%
    1185936.74%
    412312.77%


  •  


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    11 10 05 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    It's time to close the book on the ridings in the Peel Region. These ridings have voted as a block in the last 4 provincial elections and other than Bob Dechert's victory in 2006 these ridings have voted as a block in the last 6 federal elections. Polling today has the Liberals leading in the 905 and for that reason Bramalea Gore Malton will fall in line with the other Peel ridings and stay Liberal. Kular will hold his riding.
    11 10 04 Initial
    70.28.83.2
    A massive poll from the Forum Research survey released today have the NDP at 35.4%, the Liberals at 31.7% and the Conservatives at 24.4% in Bramalea—Gore—Malton. While riding polls are historically inaccurate this one sampled roughly 1000 people in the riding so it can't be discounted. Both the NDP and Liberals have momentum provincially so it should be a tight race, but if current trends hold the NDPs are poised to take this one.
    11 09 30 MF
    70.52.182.205
    Another Forum riding poll with a larger sample size than the first has the NDP at 34%, the Liberals at 32% and the PCs at 26%. Jagmeet Singh is a very strong candidate for the NDP so it's unlikely his strong showing federally could be attributed only to Jack-mania. Although the NDP and Liberals are statistically tied, it looks like the NDP has momentum. The Liberal MPP here is very low-profile.
    11 09 26 krz
    72.18.239.2
    If lawn signs on private property are any measure, Sanjeev Maingi will be the next MPP for BGM with a margin several times that of his federal counterpart by several times! Well funded, volunteers in abundance, BGM is an example of where the Tories are pulling out all the stops. Predicting a strong PC win, 2,000 votes with Liberals and NDP tied.
    11 09 20 Art
    174.91.77.163
    No other region has as many 'too close to calls' as Peel. Time to get off the fence. Still.. Down to the wire. The bottom half of this riding just elected x-MP Crombie as their Ward 5 Mississauga Councilor,leaving one scratching one's head. But, DOCTOR Kuldip has failed to get Malton it's health centre promised two elections ago. And,recent Federal results show that the blue pencils may be ready to mark ballots here. PC.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    An interesting three-way race, but I'm going to go with the Liberal party, as they seem best poised to take it based on the latest polling. I base this on overall polls indicating the Libs and PCs are pretty neck-and-neck, and the Lib vote seems pretty high in the 905 region at around ~40% based on Angus Reid's numbers. The only factor I can't discount is that the NDP did do well here last Federal election. I don't know how this will affect voting patterns in this election. A difficult call but I'm going with Liberal.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    To add to all other factors thus far mentioned, Kuldip Kular really isn't much more than McGuinty wallpaper, i.e. there isn't much to compel voters to vote for him other than incumbent-of-sitting-government autopilot. So, who knows: twice in one year, once federally, once provincially, the incumbent Liberal landing in third--could happen...
    11 09 03 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding is likely too close to call , after the unheard of 3 way race we saw federally this spring its likely the dynamics have shifted in this riding . the ndp are now very much in the race and will have to be taken serious in this riding , really the only riding in Peel where they have any realistic chance of taking a seat this year. but it could also go conservative if the votes spilts and Sanjeev Mangi is a serious candidate for the Ontario pc's . the liberal numbers look great from 07 but we know that was a longtime ago and expect there numbers to go down this year and could allow for another party to pick up the seat.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    Yes, the NDP will do very well here, but Andrea is not Jack. I expect this seat to be another 3-way race, but with the Liberals polling well again, I expect them to hold on to the seat. Interesting to note is that despite picking up the seat in the federal election, the Conservative vote here actually dropped between 2008 and 2011.
    11 07 20 jeff316
    76.10.137.155
    Will likely mirror the federal result, but with the NDP's Jagmeet Singh further off first than his 600-vote federal margin.
    11 07 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.196.143
    Jagmeet Singh and Jackomania yanked this out from under the Federal Liberals and right into the CPC's lap...barely! Hard to believe the NDP almost took it in the Federal election. The question now, was that almost win a function of Singh's popularity or of Jackomania? If it's the former then we have a great three-way race. If it's the latter, then it's two way between the Liberals and PC with Singh being the king-maker. Frankly we think it's latter but only time will tell.
    11 07 07
    99.228.40.119
    NDP declared Jagmeet Singh as candidate. Federally Jagmeet Singh just lost by 500 votes even against strong candidate like Gurbax Malhi. This time for sure he is going to win provincially.
    11 05 08 RD
    99.255.94.21
    Jagmeet Singh came within less than 900 votes of winning the first ever federal NDP seat in Peel here. If he stands again for the provincial NDP, this will be a true three-way race.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Malton tends to vote Liberal in quite good numbers, but Bramlea tends to vote PC in quite good numbers. It is quite literally the portion of the riding that is the former Gore township that tends to swing this riding one way or another. As this portion of the riding is ever growing with new residents, this one will be hard to call indeed.
    11 03 20 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    TCTC at the moment. This riding swung to the Liberals in 2003, and if Hudak is premier in 2011 it will likely have swung back.



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