Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Oakville


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Banzuela, Jonathan

Chlobowski, Andrew

Flynn, Kevin

Harris, Mike

Hunter, Steve

Scott, Larry

Sprague, Lesley

Incumbent:
Kevin Daniel Flynn

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * KEVIN FLYNN
    23,76149.81%
    RICK BYERS
    16,65934.92%
    MARION FRANCES SCHAFFER
    3,9168.21%
    TONY CRAWFORD
    3,0916.48%
    MICHAEL JAMES TOTEDA
    2790.58%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2123548.89%
    1841642.40%
    273106.28%


  •  


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    11 09 25 Harold
    24.150.177.16
    Although I never call an election until the debates
    The Forum Research poll has
    Liberal 41.9
    Conservative 36.3
    NDP 14.3
    Green 5.1
    Other 1.6
    With Kevin Flynn's popularity, and as an Oakville resident, I feel this is correct. If it is going to be a win for the Liberals in Oakville, it will be a Kevin win: not a Dalton win
    11 09 21 PJD
    24.150.212.182
    I moved to this riding from Etobicoke-Centre earlier this year. Boy are things different out here. The first thing I noticed was the pure lack of substantial lawn signs (ie on peoples actual lawns.) My exposure is really limited to the south eastern area of the riding, but I have a feeling that Mr. Flynn should have probably taken that Mayor job. In talking to my neighbours, the power plant may knock Mr Flynn's lights out. Although I do thank him, for keeping the price down on the house we bought. The guy with two first names will win this one.
    11 09 19 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    This election is all about vote splits on the left. The NDP are just a fringe party in Oakville and cannot take enough votes away from Liberal Kevin Flynn to win this riding. Also don't forget that Flynn has a personal popularity in Oakville that will help him. Flynn could have been elected mayor last fall but decided to stay at Queen's Park.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    I predict a PC win for a number of reasons (although this riding it will probably be a close race)
    1. I see the NDP rising a bit in numbers in ridings like this area, splitting the progressive vote in a similar way to the Federal 2011 election. This paves the way to PC win in suburbs like this.
    2. PCs are consistently up from 2007 numbers
    3. LPO is consistently down from 2007 numbers
    4. I'm a pretty left-wing person and I still think this will be a conservative win
    5. I'd prefer not to sit on my hands and make no prediction (i.e. any guess is better than no guess is my philosophy!)
    11 09 18 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    As a matter of fact, Oakville (or rather, the former Oakville South) went Liberal in 1987's Peterson landslide--and notionally within the present boundaries, it would have been a Liberal hold in 1990 as well. Maybe it's the Ford plant's presence, but non-Tories have been historically stronger in Oakville than all those lakefront estates seem to indicate--nevertheless, whenever a Liberal is elected here, it's usually because the right-of-centre alternative is, for whatever reason, unpalatable. Which was the case through the Chretien/Martin years federally, as well as under David Peterson and Dalton McGuinty provincially. *That*, more than the power-plant controversy per se, will define what happens here.
    11 09 14 Initials EPM
    24.226.50.107
    I think that the PCs will take the riding. First off, Oakville has always been a PC riding and the Liberals have only held the seat for two terms, compared to over 40 years of Conservatives. Basically this has ALWAYS been a Conservative seat. Further, I think the power plant issue is going to come back to haunt Kevin Flynn and it will cost him his seat.
    11 09 12 dave
    12.10.219.161
    Larry Scott should take this one for the OPCP. The federal riding overlapping Oakville swung over to the CPC in 2008 and stayed there in 2011. Local issues do not help Liberal Flynn either as he was practically invisible while Dalton McGuinty tried to shaft this particular riding. While Hudak's at times lackluster performance will likely deny the OPCP a landslide, they still have a shot at a majority. Larry Scott is a strong enough candidate with a good enough orgnaization that he will be able to secure victory even in a close race. Whether majority or minority, Oakville will be in the OPCP column after the ballots have been counted with Larry Scott as its MPP.
    11 08 28 Joe Issac
    70.26.159.148
    Oakville was one of the few 905 ridings that turned blue in before the recent federal election. This suburban town is still not as diverse as other large 905 municipalities. There is still a strong WASP presence in the riding, which obviously benefits the Tories.
    That saying, this riding isn't in the bag for the Tories yet. The Liberals are making a comeback provincially, and that makes this riding competitive. However, if the Liberals manage to keep Oakville, they will likely be back in government.
    11 08 23 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Kevin Flynn does has a big lead when looking at 07 numbers but we must keep in mind that was a longtime ago and since then this riding has gone conservative twice federally by fairly good margins . so we should expect the provincial race to get much closer in Oakville and i would not expect the liberals to easily hold onto this riding anymore. i'd say Kevin Flynn has a slight advantage going into to election but Larry Scott could still emerge the winner by time election over.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    It seems odd for me to predict the Liberals will win Oakville, as it's a right of centre suburban riding. However, the Liberals are back up in the polls, and the 7,000 vote victory they had here in 2007 should be enough to keep this seat.
    11 03 27 A.S.
    129.97.255.64
    ... and yet Flynn may be resilient enough to survive. He did denounce the initial power-plant decision once he was no longer in his quasi-cabinet position and was ‘free’ to disagree, and McGuinty did back down in the end. Definitely still TCTC. The silver platter can go frolic elsewhere in the province.
    11 02 01 Billy Bob
    24.141.167.118
    The hottest issue in Oakville was the Power Plant the McGuinty Liberals tried to build there. Only due to a ground swell of public outrage (that brought in Erin Brockevich herself) did they back down. Now, the Conservatives should thank the Liberals for handing them Oakville on a silver platter.



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