Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Richmond Hill


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chamberlain, Brian

Demjen, Tamas

DeVita, Adam

Gupta, Vic

Moridi, Reza

Incumbent:
Reza Moridi

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    REZA MORIDI
    19,45647.83%
    ALEX YUAN
    14,12734.73%
    NELLA COTRUPI
    3,5658.76%
    LIZ COUTURE
    3,2107.89%
    LISA KIDD
    3180.78%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1638345.30%
    1612944.60%
    250806.93%


  •  


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    11 10 03 Jason Cherniak
    99.238.107.59
    If you look at the last election, the Liberals were ahead of the provincial percentage in RH by 5% and the Tories were ahead of the provincial percentage in RH by 3%. That means that the Tories should need to be at least 2% ahead of the Liberals provincially for a close vote.
    However, the difference in this election is that Jewish voters (10% of the riding) no longer have the private school issue to lead them to vote
    Conservative. On the other hand, you can probably expect more NDP and less Green votes than last time. The effect on the Liberal vote from this cannot be certain yet.
    In the end, though, it will be important that people now know Reza better than they did last time. I expect that extra advantage from incumbency to win him the day in the end.
    11 10 02 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Update to prediction , passed thru this riding when on mini tour of york region , alot of signs of public property much tougher to figure out what is going on private property. Vic Gupta appears to be running a strong campaign and so does liberal incumbent, very little ndp presence anywhere in york region. final winner likely to be whatever party is leading in the polls on election day.
    11 09 27 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    It was a part of Frank Klees' old seat that notionally leaned Liberal in '03; but the fact of its being Frank Klees' old seat led to its being regarded in toss-up terms in '07...and a sturdy enough if not spectacular win in the end. So, perhaps, the most ‘average’ of York Region seats. I can't see a break from the average now--and as of writing, ‘now’ means genuine, province-wide toss-up, so that'll be in microcosm here.
    11 09 24 Tyrone
    99.237.176.30
    The comments by RH Politico and Ridell are wishful thinking, if not outright lies: Reza's support in the Iranian/Persian community is rock-solid, and his signs on the lawns of actual voters outnumber Gupta's by at least two to one - consistently, across the entire riding. That being said, Moridi needs more than the Persian community to win: they make up less than 10% of the population, and while it isn't surprising that they overwhelmingly support the first politician of Iranian descent to hold elected office in North (or South) America, Moridi has also made in-roads in the large Chinese population, and has endorsements and support from City Councillors such as Vito Spatafora, Castro Liu, Brenda Hogg, etc. In fact, the clearest sign yet of Reza's significant support may be that the (Conservative) Mayor has a Moridi sign on his lawn. This race isn't nearly as close as Gupta would like you to believe: Moridi is on track for a strong win.
    11 09 08 RHPolitico
    74.63.86.222
    While Reza has had a great deal of support in the Iranian community in Richmond Hill, my many friends and associates in that community say his support is waning. They feel that it is more important to vote on platform than common culture, and should another candidate present a better option, they will support them instead. I think it would be foolish to assume that demographics can carry him through again.
    11 09 09 John Ridell
    99.238.60.64
    Moridi is spending a lot of money installing hundreds of signs on roadways but driving through neighbourhoods there is no indication his support runs very deep. The PC Candidate Vic Gupta is running for the firs time but is a political veteran who has what I understand some very talented people working for him. In addition his support is widespread from many different communities including Chinese, Hindu, Armenian as well as a growing number of Iranians who are no longer supportive of Dr. Moridi. While this will be close I see it turning blue on Election Day.
    11 09 03 G. Lobe
    76.10.154.171
    This riding includes almost all Persian communities of Toronto who backed Moridi into the office in the last election, and continue to support him. He may not have a high profile in the national media but is well known in the local media and very active in the riding. The question though is that, in light of the general dislike for McGuinty liberals, would the non-Persian communities in Richmond Hill such as the majority of Asians still support Moridi or go to the conservative candidate. His chance is tied to the general success of the Liberals.
    11 09 03 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I'm not convined current polling trends favour the liberals here , there at 30 % province wide according to 2 polls that came out this week , not a horrible number but way less than the 42 % they got on election day in 2007. there not going to be able to hold all there seats if they poll less than 07 results come october . but Richmond Hill has also seen alot of growth since 2007 so there is no doubt alot of new voters in the riding and 07 first time riding existed provincially so its tough to get a feel for where its headed. not as high profile a riding as others in 905 but most definity remain a race this election that either Ontario pc's or liberals could win.
    11 08 28 Joe Issac
    70.26.159.148
    Richmond Hill is a fast growing, diverse town that leans left-of-center of social issues, and right-of-center on fiscal matters.
    Federally, this has been a Liberal stronghold since its creation in 1997, till the Liberal meltdown of 2011. While the Tories managed to win this, it is still a Liberal-friendly riding. Both the Liberal incumbent Reza Moridi and Tory challenger Vic Gupta are fine candidates, and don't pose any liabilities. If current polling trends continue, the Liberals would likely win this riding, albeit a smaller margin.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    With the Liberals showing some life in the last provincial poll, their 5,000 vote victory in 2007 will not be able to be overcome. However, any slip in the polls would put this seat in the too close to call category. This seat was won by the Conservatives in the federal election by over 4,000 votes.
    11 08 01 Not Non-Partisan
    207.164.79.121
    Dr. Who? How can you be a legislator for several years without any profile? Out with the tide. Vic Gupta, who is well-organized and funded will win here.
    11 03 14 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This'll be a Tory pick-up. Dr. Moridi's done a respectable job, the problem's McGuinty Government is currently very unpopular. This is a bellweather type riding, and at the present time the Liberals don't appear to be heading for victory. Things may change, but we have to call it the way things stand.



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