Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

St. Catharines


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bellows, Sandie

Bradley, Jim

Clarke, Chris

Lowell, Irene

Mooradian, Jennifer

Radick, Jon

Unrau, Dave

Waziruddin, Saleh

Incumbent:
Hon James J. Bradley

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JIM BRADLEY
    21,02947.23%
    BRUCE TIMMS
    12,86428.89%
    HENRY BOSCH
    7,06915.88%
    BYRNE SMITH
    3,1527.08%
    BARRA GOTS
    2670.60%
    SAM HAMMOND
    1390.31%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2409254.44%
    1294129.24%
    507911.47%


  •  


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    11 10 04 Dean Jones
    70.24.27.43
    The PC fantasies of them taking this riding are dying a slow painful death. A new Forum research poll came out, this time they used the local candidates names, and it has Bradley ahead by a significant margin ,and Bellow polling in the low 30's. Bradley signs now outnumber Bellows signs, and Bradley has turned in good performances at local debates.
    Bradley's one of the best MPP's in the province and has always been very good for his riding, which is why he'll easily win re-election. (With at least a 10% margin of victory).
    11 09 24 North End Richard
    216.121.253.184
    Before being so quick to slot this in as a comfortable Liberal hold, a new poll by Forum research suggests a pickup for the Conservatives in St. Catharines is the likelier outcome. With Bellows signs vastly outnumbering Liberal and NDP signs throughout the riding, people appear to have warmed up nicely to Sandie Bellows whose remarkable story as a human being epitomizes her courage and determination to fight.
    11 09 24 Steve V,
    173.32.140.33
    Re A.S.: I largely agree with your assessment of the riding, and that's why I'd bet against Bradley this time, narrowly. Areas south of the QEW (excepting the downtown core and Glenridge, which account for only a handful of polls) haven't been bad territory for Rick Dykstra in the last two elections -- so if there is to be a swing here, it may be to both the PCs and the NDP, shutting the Liberals out completely. Add in the north-end drop and Merritton (another area of conservative/NDP strength vs. Liberal weakness) and Bradley's out by a small margin. That Forum poll in the Star is exactly what I'm thinking here...
    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Strangely enough, St Catharines in Jim Bradley's presence may be more vulnerable to Hudak's regional coattails than Welland is in Peter Kormos's absence--the harlequin-pattern-gridiron of suburban sprawl north of the QEW certainly has enough of that white-churchgoing ‘Tory if not for Jim Bradley’ feel to it. But I still can't bet against Jim Bradley; besides, in the event of rejection, south-of-the-QEW might just as well swing NDP and Bradley'd win through mutual cancellation...
    11 09 13 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    With the Liberals moving into first place in the polls, any chance of Bradley losing his seat are gone. Sandie Bellows will finish a poor second but Bradley hangs on again.
    11 09 04 Steve V.
    173.32.140.33
    I think this race has been called too soon. Bradley certainly has been around for a while but I don't think his government's record is terribly popular in St. Catharines. He didn't have too much trouble in 2007 with the focus on John Tory but this election is going to be about his government's tax and hydro rate hikes. It's a different campaign and I think it will be much closer than some people think.
    11 03 08 MF
    24.87.200.35
    I'm leaning Liberal here, but I'm reluctant to call it with confidence. Jim Bradley has continually won elections in St. Catharines regardless of the trend in Ontario politics. However Bradley did see his vote drop significantly last time, and the NDP actually doubled its vote from 2003. The Conservatives will almost certainly be seeing their vote increase here. In the end, Bradley will likely end up on top, but it will be much closer than last time.
    11 02 27 Leo
    216.121.176.188
    There is no way that Jim Bradley is going to lose in St. Catharines. Jim Bradley is consistently the hardest working MPP in Ontario and the people of St. Catharines know that and will send him back to Queens Park.



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