Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Brampton West


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chmelyk, Patti

Dhillon, Vic

Harlson, Ted

Kathuria, Dalbir Singh

Shenouda, Ben

Incumbent:
Vic Dhillon

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * VIC DHILLON
    20,74646.19%
    MARK BECKLES
    15,12033.67%
    GARTH BOBB
    4,90110.91%
    SANJEEV GOEL
    3,4717.73%
    NORAH MADDEN
    4881.09%
    GURDIAL SINGH FIJI
    1850.41%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1497240.36%
    1652144.53%
    394110.62%


  •  


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    11 10 05 Retired Observer
    99.228.7.210
    It is not beleivable that this riding is STILL showing as too close to call. I offer the following: (1) Dhillon has Liberal signs from one end of the riding to the other. His signs on private property EASILY outnumber both the PC and NDP signs two to one; (2) his two main competitors are repeated no shows in public meetings. I would suggest that the language skills of each of these two (NDP and PC) may suggest why they do not like to meet the public and field questions; (3) the recent homophobic flyer campaign in use by the PC candidate is a real turn off especially those tired of negative tactics in elections; (4) the Brampton West Riding is certainly not a SWING riding in Ontario elections. I see no credible reason why this riding is still showing as undecided. A car tour around hese parts of Brampton show quite a different reality. Based upon signs and comments from others, it is reasonable to expec that Dhillon will exceed his plurality of 26% by a large amount this time. Two very weak competitors and a fast failing PC campaign. Huge amount of unionized support (teachers, firefighters, carpenters etc) do not reflect any pick up by the NDP. Dhillon had this won two weeks ago.
    11 10 05 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The Tories in Brampton are running from the homophobic brochure they put out last week in Brampton. This is going to cost them a lot of votes due to the bad publicity. The ridings in the Peel Region have voted as a block in the last 4 provincial elections and other than Bob Dechert's victory in 2006, they have voted as a block in the last 6 federal elections. The 2011 election will keep this trend going as Vic Dhillon keeps this riding Liberal.
    11 09 27
    99.233.218.204
    What gives Brampton West the ‘most likely Brampton PC’ feeling is the dominant impression of Old Brampton (Bill Davis's heartland, after all), plus the ineffectuality of Vic Dhillon versus whatever stars (Clement, Beckles) he's been up against. Trouble is, megagrowth is rapidly outflanking Old Brampton--though in a Harper-majority era, on whose benefit, who knows. And remember that it just saw Brampton's highest *Liberal* share federally (granted, they didn't have to deal with Dhalla-esque scandal or a Jagmeet Singh-esque NDP phenomenon here)
    11 09 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    If there is one Brampton riding that will go PC, this will be it. Question is, how does some comments made by PC members, that may be interpreted as anti-immigrant, go over with a riding that has many new-Canadians? Could hurt their chances here. Whatever happens, we think this will be a late call on e-night.
    11 09 25 AD
    24.246.31.39
    Levac should manage to hold on to this riding assuming that polling trends continue. So long as the LPO/PCs maintain a tight margin I predict this riding will be a Liberal hold.
    11 09 25 AD
    24.246.31.39
    With PC numbers up since the last election and the LPO down in just about every close this is another riding in 905 that's a LP-PC race. My bet is on the incumbant, as neither of the two candidates seem to stand out at the moment.
    11 09 25 Rickie S
    208.87.22.150
    Brant's love affair with Dave Levac is coming to an end. He's wearing McGuinty around his neck like a millstone. Dave's gaffe about the carbon tax is also being much discussed.
    11 09 24 Retired Observer
    99.228.7.210
    If signs mean anything, Dhillon has this riding sewn up. I have now attended two debates and came away wondering about the quality of the other candidates. The funniest was the NDP candidate at the ROyal Orchard Middle school debate. Three times in one very long winded answer to an audience question, this guy mentioned ‘pool tables’. On my way home, it occured to me that he was probably talking about ‘portable’ (classroom). As funny as his literacy skills seemed to tie him in knots, his numeracy was equally troubling. According to him, he was ‘mentored’ by both Jack Layton and ‘Tommy’ Douglas. Later in his presentation, he acknowledged coming to Canada nine years ago (thus, 2002). Mr. Douglas passed away in 1986 and I can only think that the NDP candidate was either name dropping and lying OR that his mentorign by Mr. Douglas was by way of some sort of seance. Dhillon has signs up in all parts of Brampton and is well-informed about issues. No contest in this one. An invisible PC candidate, the comics of the NDP candidates in the area make this one a no-brainer.
    11 09 22 C Nimbus
    99.227.254.214
    Ben who? The PCs ran a great candidate in 2007 and people of that caliber come along once in a generation. Could have been a Premier one day. What a tragedy that Ontario politics has come down to choosing between mediocre and mediocrity. We can't go lower with Dhillon. We won't go higher with Ben who? Better the mediocrity we know. A win for Vic
    11 09 20 Art
    174.91.77.163
    Definitely gone. Incumbent is wallpaper for the Libs. Likeable but so was federal lib Kania. Sent packing by people ticked off with their 'smart meters' and outrageous hospital bed stories in Brampton.
    11 09 15 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding should be a potential pc pick up as Brampton seems to be moving right and federal riding went conservative in May by almost 10 % however there candidate Ben Shenouda is brand new and not particulary well known when compared to other pc candidates that have ran here . its hard to believe this used to be Tony Clements riding when he was an mpp and cabinet minister provincially . polling remains close in the 905 and most recent ipsos poll said parties were basically tied here so one can imagine brampton is going to be a close race till the end.
    11 09 04 Long Time Grit
    99.228.7.210
    This riding is way too close to call right from the get-go. Dhillon has his supporters but there are more than a few in favour of change. Problem being that in Brampton, despite McGuinty's failing popularity, there also is not much support for the PC or NDP leader. Despite what Dhillon claims, many in Brampton West are still VERY upset over his involvment in the closing of Peel Memorial Hospital. This will be a very difficult riding to predict. Dhillon is (at the end of the day) a very silent and obediant back-bencher with limited community recognition outside his own south asian community.
    11 03 15 Art
    174.91.79.69
    Nice fellow but a no show member rarely showing up to voice his constituents concerns in the Legislature. He?s very vulnerable with the right PC candidate as the alternative choice. PC pick up.



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