Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Brant


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Burns, Ken

Ferguson, Rob

Hockley, Daniel

Jenner, Dustin

Levac, Dave

Sitko, Martin

St. Amant, Michael

Turmel, John

Van Tilborg, Brian

Incumbent:
Dave Levac

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * DAVE LEVAC
    23,48549.16%
    DAN MCCREARY
    13,78728.86%
    BRIAN VAN TILBORG
    6,53613.68%
    TED SHELEGY
    3,2726.85%
    ROB FERGUSON
    4030.84%
    JOHN TURMEL
    2890.60%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2315652.09%
    1431732.20%
    532811.98%


  •  


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    11 10 05 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    Levac is the right call for Brant. Sadly several posters here think Burford is part of the Brant riding. It's not and that's what happens when people who don't know anything about these ridings post their opinions. Brant is basically urban Brantford with Paris and that's it.
    The Tories are down going into election day and Levac has the best get out the vote team in the riding. Levac holds.
    11 10 05
    173.206.208.214
    Liberals are going to stay home only in ridings where either they are running 3rd, or where the candidate is a complete loser. Don't see any reference to either happening in Brant. Its going to be close but saying Libs are staying away is a bit much.
    11 10 05 dennis s
    208.87.22.150
    Poor deluded Liberal neo assumes that the NDP double their vote but the following doesn't happen: (1) disillusioned Liberals stay home and (2) the P.C. vote goes up from 2007 levels? Both of which will definitely happen.
    11 10 03 neo
    50.101.151.49
    Unfortunately Conservative poster Dennis S. does not know how to use a calculator. Assuming he is correct, a big if indeed, even if NDP doubles their vote from 6,500 to 13,000 Levac still wins.
    11 10 02 dennis s
    208.87.22.150
    What Liberal poster Neo doesn't get is that the NDP vote in Brant is probably going to double from 2007 levels. And that vote comes from the Liberals. With the rural part of the riding being solid PC and the NDP carving off 10% from Levac in the city, there is no way Levac can win.
    11 09 30 neo
    50.101.151.49
    Conservative commentators show lack of knowledge of local riding. Brant County is not a rural riding! 75-80% of population is in the city. In the last election Cons took county vote and still got slaughtered in the overall vote. As for signs, a drive around the riding (granted not exactly scientific) shows number of Liberal signs about the same as as last prov. election. More Lib signs going up in West Brant daily. With a week to go Lib support still growing. Good sign for Levac.
    11 09 29 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Paris, Burford, & St George were already solid PC in 1999, the year in which Levac first squeaked in. And whatever the Forum poll says: if we're looking at Ontario-wide polls that show a draw or something slightly favouring the Liberals, Levac's not going to be an easy pushover, carbon tax gaffes notwithstanding. Though re nms'a ‘followed provincial trends’ point: first of all, it doesn't really pertain to the rural part (long the Nixon family stronghold); and secondly, Brantford proper swung to the NDP during the Bill Davis years (and of course, it was federally NDP under Derek Blackburn those same years). Which is another way of saying that this *could* be another of those fascinating 3-way situations in the works (even if Van Tilborg's been a mediocre-poller by recent NDP standards hereabouts)
    11 09 30 Rick S
    208.87.22.150
    That a three-time incumbent like Dave Levac can't match his first-time challenger (Mike St Amant) in signs tells you a lot. Levac is caught up in the Southwestern Ontario wave towards the Tories and is going down. P.C.s will win Brant by a comfortable margin.
    11 09 28 DavidC
    99.247.220.182
    I have attended the debates in the riding. Dave Levac is a good local candidate, has a sound grasp of the issues and is a good speaker. The PC candidate just reads from the playbook and is a very poor speaker. The majority may be not be as large but Levac should win.
    11 09 28 Fred S
    208.87.22.150
    Since I last posted, the Toronto Star Forum poll came out showing the Liberals 10 points behind in Brant. I personally think that's at the high end of the gap, but Levac is definitely behind. The sign war has the Tories slightly ahead in Brantford, but it's in the County that the difference is most startling. Paris, Burford and St George are solid P.C......you wouldn't know anyone else was running. St Amant will sweep the small towns and rural vote and that will put him comfortably over the top.
    11 09 26 neo
    50.101.151.49
    Dave Levac will win this riding again. Margin will not be 10,000 like last time but he will win. Levac is popular and delivered lots to the riding. Sign war is about even. In fact, fewer signs in general which favors incumbent. Fred. S. - St. Amant for Cabinet. Seriously? When the big tory guns come to town St. Amant is not even allowed to speak. He got the nod because no one else wanted the job.
    11 09 26 dennis s
    208.87.22.150
    My earlier submission that the P.C.s are leading in Brant was borne out today in the Toronto Star Forum poll -- the numbers for Brant are P.C. 37, Liberals 27 and NDP 24. The NDP have picked up 10 percentage points from the 2007 election (when they got just over 13%). And they've taken all those votes from Dave Levac. So the NDP is killing the Liberals. Michael St Amant is going to win Brant and I don't think it's going to be all that close.
    11 09 25 Fred S
    208.87.22.150
    Dave Levac didn't do a bad job as MPP. But notice I said ‘did’ and that's the way people are speaking about him right now in Brant. The Tories strongest region in this election is Southwestern Ontario and that wave has taken hold in this riding. Michael St Amant will win this one by a modest margin. Hudak will have to consider him for cabinet when drawing from a minority pool of MPPs.
    11 09 22 nms
    66.207.113.110
    It's ridiculous to think that the Liberals are in trouble. In the past the riding has followed provincial trends (Brad Ward in the NDP wave of the 1990s and Ron Johnson in the Tory wave) but Dave Levac seems to transcend just being part of the governing Liberals. Despite the mis-speak the other day, it will get far more traction provincially than it will ever get within the riding. Similarly, of the other two contenders, the Tory, Michael St. Amant, is little known and the New Democrat, Brian Van Tilborg, has run in this riding multiple times (at multiple levels) and has never gotten any traction. Dave Levac is fine and, despite this mis-step, may be in line for a cabinet position shoudl the Liberals be re-elected.
    11 09 22 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The previous poster is correct saying that rural Ontario is not happy with the McGuinty government. The problem is that Brant is not a rural riding. It's made up of 80 per cent Brantford and 20 per cent Paris. The rural parts of this riding moved to Haldimond-Norfolk-Brant three a couple elections ago. The Tories are going to pick up seats in rural Ontario but Brant is too urban and Levac is too personally popular to lose this seat.
    11 09 21
    24.36.161.123
    any chance levac had is now gone after his carbon tax gaffe. one wonders if he really wants the job still...
    11 09 21 Andrew Drummond
    143.166.255.63
    The Liberals are dead here. The NDP came second with over 25% of the vote federally. There is no way that they do not take at least 20% in this election and probably more.
    With that split Levac can't win, and probably drops to third like his federal cousin.
    11 09 20 Josh
    174.119.11.28
    Levac may be a popular incumbent, but with rural sentiment turning swiftly against the Liberals, the PC's will win this seat narrowly.
    11 09 19 sry brantlib
    24.36.161.123
    Levac's campaign has no signs of life lately. unless they have some ace up their sleeve and are waiting for the right time, he's going down. the media has been friendly and the responses at the doors/debates/etc is very pro-PC. it won't be a big margin, but the PCs are picking this one up.
    11 09 20 Dennis S
    208.87.22.150
    Liberal MPP Dave Levac seems to be going down in flames rather spectacularly. The P.C.s have the Liberals outsigned probably 3 to 1, and in some neighbourhoods the NDP have more signs up than the Libs. Also P.C. candidate Michael St Amant's people seem to be everywhere. They have had booths at major events like the Canada Day celebrations in Brantford, the Paris Fair and Applefest in St. George....working the crowds with petitions and giveaways....even balloons for kids! The Liberals have not been in evidence at these major events.
    Everyone knows Dave Levac was thinking about retiring before this one. He should have because he's going down. In fairness to Dave, it's not all his fault. Dalton McGuinty is very unpopular in this area.
    11 09 17 Brant Liberal
    70.48.214.134
    Local leading PCs took a pass on the nomination this year waiting for Levac's retirement. The general well-held theory is this riding has voted Levac since 1999 and this year will be no different.
    The ?acclaimed? (meaning no one wanted it) PC candidate hasn't got the ?royal jelly?. Not a member of the Brantford Club or Rotary. Unheard of in Chamber of Commerce circles until he sought the nomination. Local businessmen aren't going to take a chance with an unknown (whisper campaign in Tory circles already started that the next nomination battle will put local maverick developer against local well-contected lawyer for PC nomination).
    Probably the safest Liberal seat between Windsor and Hamilton.
    It should be declared Liberal. In 4 years its an open seat and thats where the smart money in Tory circles is going.
    11 09 17 Jill
    24.36.161.123
    judging from the signs in the riding and the reaction at debates, the PCs are getting stronger here. I'm pretty sure it'll be tight, but as long as the NDP improve on their last result, this one should swing into the Blue column
    11 09 13 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The previous poster is working hard for his Tory candidate but the weakness of the NDP in Brant is making things easier for Dave Levac to hold on to his seat. The Tories needed a left split to win this riding but aren't getting it. Levac seems to have absorbed the NDP support and that will be enough to help him win re-election. I believe Levac's contacts with the teacher unions have helped him keep the NDP vote down.
    11 09 10 Bryan
    208.87.22.150
    McColeman took this by 12K just a few short months ago in May. The tide is turning here and both the NDP and PCs are up. St. Amant is already winning the sign war and the response at the doors, in all parts of the city, is very supportive. I predict a narrow PC victory.
    11 08 31 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    It would be a mistake to call Brant a ?rural riding?. It's actually pretty urban and Brantford has had a tradition of being more left wing than most of its neighbours. Dave Levac has deep roots in the community having taught so many of the voters in Brantford. The key here is how much support the NDP gets. Every vote they pick up from the 2007 total is out of Levac's pocket. Levac has good relations with the local unions which should help him hang on.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    Levac won this seat by 10,000 votes in 2007. It is one of those rural seats where the Liberals have somehow managed to win in the past, but it has a strong history of voting for the Liberals (and even the NDP!). The riding is anchored by a medium sized city, Brantford which will have to be won by a good margin for the Liberals if they want to keep this seat.
    Now federally, the former Liberal MP for the riding finished third in the last election, so anything can happen. But, with the Liberals back up in the polls, they should keep this seat.
    11 08 10 Pratt
    216.185.73.186
    I think this one is too close to call. Here is why:
    Liberal incumbent Dave Levac seems worried, has been making some blunders re: announcements and other indicators are not going well from provincial polling numbers, to fairly small numbers despite an active social media campaign. Also, McGuinty is not popular here at all. However Mr. Levac is personally very popular, well liked and well respected. He won this riding originally at a time when very few Liberals were elected to Queens Park. However that was also when a very strong Jane Stewart ran federally. In the last federal election the Liberal (a former incumbant) tanked and placed a distant third. The Liberal brand is not very strong here. However, Levac has very strong media relations and is often featured several times a week in the local daily and 1-2 times in the edition of the local weekly paper. Many surmise this is Mr. Levac's last kick at the can and may very well grant him a gift win.
    NDP stalwart Van TilBorg is running for the 3rd time since 2007 (2007 Prov, 2008 Fed and 2011 Prov) which gives him a better than average name recognition. He's also known to be very active in between elections in the community in partisan and non-partisan ways. Further he ran the Federal candidate's campaign who saw a greater bump than anyone excpected taking the Federal NDP vote from 9331 in 2008 to 16351 in 2011. Laferriere (the fed candidate) is quite popular and well liked/respected and has been seen as very publically behind Van Tilborg which can only help. Van Tilborg has also grown every election he has run. In a likely three way race where 15-17 k in votes can win it Van Tilborg is well positioned for definite growth. Can that growth become a win? The local NDP showed some organizational muscle this past May and I doubt it's gone anywhere in that time. Also, ONDP Leader Andrea Horwath has been to the riding several times in the last 2 years and seems very well liked locally always out drawing Hudak.
    The PC's are also interesting. Local candidate Michael St. Amant has been everywhere since being nominated (though relatively unknown before that), the tory machine is behind him sending MPP's here regularly, his local organization seems rock solid and the Federal Conservative numbers were sky high at 28,045. The Conservative MP however spends more time with Liberal MPP Dave Levac and Mr. Levac was often seen to be supporting the Conservative MP far more than the Liberal nominee in the last race. This might cause many blue tories to see the Liberal MPP as a ‘safe’ vote. Also there is word that the Federal Conservatives have told Phil McColeman to not be involved very much.
    Also adding to potential voter confusion is that Mr. St. Amant's name is OFTEN confused with the former Liberal MP who just tanked this past May Lloyd St. Amand. The dark horse in this race is not Michael St. Amant but is actually his campaign manager Phil Gillies who is the former PC MPP for the riding and is a dynamo. I'd wager that if Mr. Gillies ran this would be a PC lock. Sometimes he overshadows the candidate.
    The Greens have yet to pick a candidate, and there will likely be a few independents (the Libertarians have nominated someone I believe) who will not be of much consequence as well.
    I can see this going either way depending on the local campaigns, the party polling and the leader. This riding is definitely one to watch.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    69.165.140.179
    Brant is interesting because, as a politician Dave Levac is the epitome of the failure of the Ontario NDP. This guy is an NDPer in all but name. Pre-1990, he'd be wearing the orange tie instead of the red one he's worn for the last ten plus years. Levac is well liked and respected, he's managed to appeal to both the left and center voters in the area, but rising NDP strength in Brant at the federal level may give the NDP just enough of a bump to put the Conservatives over the top.
    11 05 19 Brant Sage
    99.254.24.2
    Dave Levac, the Liberal incumbent, is well-liked personally. But he's wearing McGuinty around his neck like a millstone. If a Tory wave develops, and the NDP comes on strong on the left flank as they did in Brant federally, this seat could go P.C.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Containing the native reserve at the centre of the ‘Caledonia Dispute’ I'll be curious to see if there is still any spill over anger here at the sitting member and government.
    11 03 20 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    This riding originally went to Levac in 1999. Even if the PCs remain up in the polls, its difficult to see how they will make up the 10,000 vote margin in Brant. Almost certain Liberal hold.



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