Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:32:22

Constituency Profile


Hancheroff, Sam

Kwasnica, John

Larson, Linda Margaret

Pederson, Doug

Popoff, Mischa

John Slater


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    John Slater
    Lakhvinder Jhaj
    Joe Cardoso
    Bob Grieve


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    13 04 30
    I wonder if this riding has made history after having what would have been its top 3 candidates, John Slater (LIB), Marji Bosso (NDP), and now Mischa Popoff (CONS) either step down or be dropped as a candidate. Of course, the Liberals and NDP quickly found replacements but without a right-wing vote split, I believe this will now tip into the Liberal column.
    13 04 23 Laurence Putnam
    Last time out, the Liberals clung on here with 37% after a messy nomination battle that led to one of the candidates for the nomination instead running for the Conservatives - and posting an impressive 20% here.
    The victor in that internecine warfare, John Slater, despite going on to win in 2009, has now found himself turfed from the Liberal ranks as well. Linda Larsen is running instead.
    Although not listed yet here, school trustee Sam Hanchoff is representing the NDP.
    Don't know if the Conservatives can duplicate their 20% showing here again, but they will probably do decently enough.
    Meanwhile, the Liberals are polling around 30% in the interior - that's on average. Internal warfare has really hampered the Liberal organization here for a few years now. They were strong enough to survive it despite themselves last time, but this time...
    13 03 30 bza
    The last election in 2009 was pretty close, and with the various reconfigurations of the riding in the past 20 years parts of it has gone NDP frequently before.
    This is a probable pick up for the NDP this time around as well with the party in the lead in the polls and in the interior.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    These interior ridings will be much closer than usual due to the growth of the BC Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain over 10%, they will tip this seat to the NDP and that appears likely at this point. Of all the interior seats, this appears to be the more likely NDP gain.

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