Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Cardoso, Joe
Green Party
Grieve, Bob
Jhaj, Lakhvinder
Slater, John

Penticton-Okanagan Valley
(Approx. 55% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

CONROY, Katrine
West Kootenay-Boundary
(Approx. 35% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

LALI, Harry
(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 SJ
BJ is right but he doesn't take into consideration the Conservative candidate. In the Similkameen part of the riding a strong conservative centre as Keremeos is being split by Cardoso. I have seen Conservative Party signs in Keremeos and Hedley where I have not seen them before this is a problem for Slater. I also believe that some of the farmers and ranchers who have been effected by Liberal policy will vote Conservative driving that wedge deeper.
The NDP candidate has a real shot in this riding as Voter18 stated there is a federal NDP MP here. This combined with the bands where the NDP does hold support. Hedley used to be a good centre of support for the NDP in the old riding. The Boundary area leans NDP and there is some NDP support in the S. Okanagan part of this riding.
I think it will be close but I think Lakhvinder should take this riding.
09 05 04 Passing By
I just drove across a big chunk of this riding and the NDP signs are everywhere. I'd say there are probably 2 or 3 NDP signs for every Liberal sign. Combine this with the strong Conservative candidate and it's looking good for the NDP here.
09 04 25 Ron
In response to Voter 18 the federal riding boundaries are much larger; and more importantly extend far more to the east and into the Kootenay?s where the NDP presence is the strongest.
Historically this riding has a strong Liberals preference in Osoyoos; with slighter Liberal preferences in Oliver and Keremeos & Cawston. However once again the Eastern part of the riding leading towards the Kootenays will go NDP. Thus most would see this as a very tight race.
I don?t believe that Cardoso will be the wild card as some suggest that he will be.. His track record of ongoing battles against the Town of Oliver when he was an RDOS area director won him a few hardline rural supporters but came at great expense of mainstream Oliver Town voters.
The real difference in this riding is the part being forgotten; the North. The residential areas around Skaha Lake including Kaledan; Heritage Hills and Skaha Estates and related waterfront all lean very heavily Liberal. Also do not forget that Big White is also part of this riding and has had significant growth in population. Big White also leans strongly to the BC Liberals. I suspect the Northern part of this riding and Osoyoos will carry Slater to victory.
09 04 23 Voter18
If I'm not mistaken of my overlay of Federal and Provinical ridings this is where Alex Atamanenko won in the '1006 and 2008 federal elections. If Barisoff had run here I might be willing to call it for the Libs.
09 04 15 CS
Most of the population in this riding are based in the South Okanagan. Oliver, Osoyoos, Okanagan Falls and Keremeos all voted Conservative by a landslide in the recent federal election, there is not a whole lot of love for left wing politics here.
Grand Forks will go NDP, but won't come close to tipping the balance.
The South Okanagan towns are largely populated with the following demographics
- Affluent retirees with conservative values, many from Alberta.
- People working in the agriculture and tourism industries, with many jobs also related to manufacturers and services for the mining and independent hydropower industries. None of these industries have significant big-union penetration, not a good place for NDP to find support.
The recent tussle over candidate selection may cost a few Liberal protest votes, but the vast majority of Liberal voters are so polarised that they won't risk handing-over the riding to the NDP, even if they are a bit disgruntled.
09 04 05 JJD
With John Slater as the candidate, I think the BCL should take this one. I think the strong right-wing voters will realize that a vote for Cardoso is a vote for the NDP and stick with Slater and the BCL.
09 03 18 VanToria
Bad news for the Libs. Disgruntled Liberal nomination WINNER turned booted candidate Cardoso is going to run for the Conservatives. That will only rip votes away from the BC Liberals. If he can scrape 4-8 percent of the vote, it becomes an easy NDP pickup.
09 02 15 Bob
The Eastern NDP leaning parts of the riding lack the population to make this riding close. It should go Liberal by 1000+ votes.
09 01 16 BJ
The Okanagan Valley is the fastest growing part of this new riding, which includes these towns:
1. Okanagan Falls - pop. 6,005 - leans heavily Liberal
2. Oliver - pop. 4,722 - leans heavily Liberal
3. Osoyoos - pop. 5,115 - leans heavily Liberal
In the Similkameen Valley:
1. Keremeos - pop. 1,386 - leans Liberal
In Boundary Country:
1. Midway - pop. 676 - leans NDP
2. Greenwood - pop. 667 - leans heavily NDP
3. Grand Forks - pop. 4,036 - leans heavily NDP
4. Christina Lake - pop. 986 - NDP/Liberal split
Based upon the population stats above and past voting history in 2005, this seat should be a relatively easy Liberal hold/gain.
09 01 12 VanToria
This is one of the new ridings and should be an NDP pickup even before we know the candidates. A huge chunk of this riding comes from the old West Kootenay Boundary riding. Katrine Conroy won big in 2005.

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