Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Kamloops-South Thompson

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:35:04

Constituency Profile


Alexander, Brian Arthur

Friedman, Tom

Sharp, Peter

Stone, Todd Graham

Kevin Krueger


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Kevin Krueger*
    Tom Friedman
    Bev Markle
    Maria Dobi


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    13 05 12 deripi
    Stone wins by 2,000 votes (lower margin than Krueger but still comfortable)
    13 05 11 Michael
    Todd Stone is desperately trying to climb onto the Ajax train long after it has left the station. Mr Stone sent out a long rambling letter recently talking about his commitment to mining in British Columbia and then finished it by flip flopping and going completely against the Liberal campaign position that his partner in Kamloops North (Terry Lake, the environment Minister)is the right person to decide about the proposed mine.
    Mr Stone is now endorsing the Full Panel Review that Tom Friedman and the NDP have been demanding for months. Perhaps Mr. Stone has been counting the number of NDP lawn signs that are showing up in the Upper Sahali area that has long been a Liberal stronghold.
    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    Unlike it's brother to the North, I'm going to speculate that K-ST will vote AGAINST the winning party. Interestingly, Kamloops North Thompson voted to scrap the HST while Kamloops South Thompson voted to keep it - so there does appear to be a pronounced divide here these days, with K-NT continuing to play bellwether while K-ST has staked out territory as a more free enterprise/conservative seat. Oh, what would Nelson Riis say?
    13 05 05 CharlesD
    The Conservatives breakthrough is not happening and their votes are dwindling all over the Province including the interior. Cummins had two changes in the debates but that's come and gone and he failed to make an impression. Further, it seems that the hard core right wingers are coming back to support the Clark liberals despite the abundance of former Paul Martin bully boys among Clark's nearest and dearest. The coalition is holding. I think Dix's position on Site C and other energy projects is scaring lots of resource sector workers who were ready to vote NDP and so this will be one of the ridings to go liberal.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    The continued strength of the Conservatives in the Interior and North coupled with the inability of the Liberals to cut into the popular vote of the NDP is turning this into a toss up. The NDP vote province wide seems to have a floor of 45% and the gains of the Conservatives are coming at the expense of the Liberals. If this trend holds and the Conservative vote breaks higher than 25%, the NDP will win. If less than 25%, a narrow Liberal hold.
    13 04 16 SG
    New poll released today by Oracle poll shows the Lib candidate at 48 %, NDP candidate at 34 % and Tory candidate at 18 %.
    13 04 05 bza
    With the incumbent retiring and the high spread between the Liberals and NDP, ridings like this come into play. It has been a riding that the NDP won back in 1991 as well.
    I would keep it in the too close to call category for now and see how the race unfolds and make the prediction closer to election day.
    13 04 03 Michael
    Tom Friedman has the momentum and a good crew. He is also media friendly.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    This looks like a prime pick up opportunity for the NDP but northern seats are tricky to predict. Too close to call at this time.

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