Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:40:27

Constituency Profile


Benham, Roger

Dieleman, Jonathan

Donaldson, Doug

Hartwell, Sharon

O'Leary, Jesse

Taylor, Rod

Doug Donaldson


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Doug Donaldson
    Scott Groves
    Roger Benham


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    13 04 27 Civicus
    Big increase in turnout and Aboriginal participation as a result of the incumbent's campaign last time. Lots of signs of attention to constituency issues since. Popular local candidate, plus general voter intentions equals an increased majority for Donaldson.
    13 04 25 Laurence Putnam
    In the interests of full disclosure, this is one of few ridings in the province I've never been to (despite a burning desire to see the Grand Canyon of the Stikine) and my knowledge of the local area is limited, so I'm making this call blind.
    However, no matter how well the Liberals did here last time, it's virtually impossible to envision a scenario in this election where the Liberals will pick up seats - particularly in the interior and ESPECIALLY up North.
    Interesting that the Liberal numbers last time almost perfectly match the province-wide numbers. If that's a harbinger for this go around, well...
    I will go ahead and predict that this one is going to the NDP.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    It is hard to see any opportunity for Liberals to take away any riding won by the NDP in the last election. NDP up, Libs way down.. this is another one in the bag for the NDP.

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