Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Benham, Roger
Donaldson, Doug
Groves, Scott

MacKAY, Dennis
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
(Approx. 90% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

COONS, Gary Earl
North Coast
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 Rodney
This area had some of the biggest participation rate increases amongst Aboriginal voters in BC election history last time out. Redrawing of the boundaries will add to this factor, and Donaldson is a popular local Councillor with a strong environmental track record...I expect this to be an NDP gain.
09 05 06 steve
The redistricting here favours the NDP. The new Stikine riding only contains 62% of the old Bulkley Valley Stikine riding. Houston has been removed, which voted Liberal in 2005 by a margin of over 2 to 1, for a net gain of 400 votes for McKay. Burns Lake has also been removed. Results there in 2005 were pretty evenly split. The NDP received 564 votes to 594 votes for the Liberals. On the West side of the new Stikine riding, Kitwanga and Gitanyow have been added in to the new Stikine riding. In 2005, this area voted NDP over Liberal by a ratio of almost 3 to 1, for a net gain of 200 votes for the NDP. The redistricting, in combination with the lack of an incumbent for the Liberals, makes this riding a likely NDP gain.
09 04 30 Hayes
I think it will be close, but Scott Groves will win Stikine. He came to my door the other day and had a good grasp of local issues. As far as the native vote goes, his wife is native, which gives Scott a good grounding in understanding the first nations' issues.
09 02 15 Derrick
Unfortunely, I think this riding will go NDP. The Liberals have grossly mis-handled and mis-read the voting pattern of Natives. It doesn't matter how much money the government throws at them, they will continue to vote enblock for the NDP. With a 30% block, it will be extremely hard for the Liberals to hold this riding. Too bad, the Premier didn't listen to his MLA when it came time to reset the electoral boundaries. Adding more reserves to the riding will not help in Stikine nor in Skeena riding.
09 01 14 binriso
Mackay is retiring, he didnt win by a whole lot last time and redistribution likely helps a little. TCTC

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