Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Sault Ste. Marie


Prediction Changed
2013-03-01 17:53:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Flannigan, Kara

Fremlin, Roderick (Rod)

Orazietti, David

Ross, Celia

Williams, Austin

Incumbent:
David Orazietti

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Sault Ste. Marie)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * DAVID ORAZIETTI
    1610954.95%
    CELIA ROSS
    903730.83%
    JIB TURNER
    347711.86%
    LUKE MACMICHAEL
    5191.77%
    MATTHEW HUNT
    1720.59%
    2007 Result:
    * DAVID ORAZIETTI
    19,31660.13%
    JEFF ARBUS
    8,47526.38%
    JOSH PRINGLE
    2,3497.31%
    ANDRÉ RIOPEL
    1,3774.29%
    BILL MURPHY
    6051.88%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2005056.72%
    267407.56%
    1137932.19%


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    14 06 11 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    Sure, there are (usually Dipper) fantasies of the OLP being wiped out in the North; but given polling and Wynne's commanding the Northern debate, a wipeout is unlikely. So if there has to be *one* Liberal prediction, it's gotta be on behalf of the Orazietti machine in the Soo--though given the way polling has *actually* been going, don't be surprised if Orazietti cedes 'best Grit seat in the North' honours to at least one of the Thunder Bay ridings. (Well, he's got good enough opponents to make that happen.)
    14 06 05 NJam101
    63.135.17.148
    I was in the Sault last week and couldn't believe how many red Orazietti lawn signs there are in front of houses. I stand by my comment made over a year ago that this is the safest Liberal seat in Northern Ontario. In fact the only safe one today. Orazietti is currently the Minister of Natural Resources. That is a very high profile position in Northern Ontario. Even though the MNR isn't always popular with Northerners having the minister of it as your MPP is probably a good thing. People tell me that Celia Ross is a good candidate and that Fremlin isn't all that great. I don't think the result will be much different than in 2011 but the NDP and PC candidates may pick up a tiny bit of support.
    14 06 05 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    Every seat projection I've seen throughout this election has shown Sault Ste. Marie remaining Liberal (eg. 308, 2CloseToCall & Canadian Election Atlas), so it looks like this site's prediction was solid.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    173.76.174.83
    Best chance for Liberals in the North. Orazietti being in Cabinet should help sustain him. But it will be closer than expected as a high PC vote will hurt the Liberals. The NDP will get 10,000 votes no matter who their candidate is in the Sault. If it ends up being a 3 way fight, it will only help NDP. Liberals will need to win the ground game to win here.
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    69.172.81.45
    Oracle Research conducted a riding poll in Sault Ste Marie and it shows the Liberals are still in the lead but have lost support to the PC. The PC are still far in third place but it is still conceivable that they surpass the NDP at Liberal expense and take SSM. I'm more inclined to believe the it'll be a closer Liberal win or a narrow NDP victory. Plenty of time to see how this develops.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Of the 11 Northern Ontario ridings, this is maybe the only one that stays Liberal. While the NDP has won in the past, David Orazietti is quite popular as well as the PC support compared to past elections is unusually low so it seems much like we've seem federally much of the movement is between the Conservatives and Liberals not NDP and Liberals and with the Liberals having a popular incumbent while the PCs run a paper candidate, this will stay Liberal.
    13 04 28 NJam101
    63.135.17.148
    Without a doubt the safest Liberal seat in Northern Ontario.
    13 02 25 LFC Ottawa
    134.117.254.250
    The only seat that the Liberals will keep in the North. This one is safe rest flip NDP.



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