|| Don Valley West
Hon Kathleen O. Wynne
(87.50% of voters in new riding)
|| St. Paul's
Hon Eric Hoskins
(12.50% of voters in new riding)
||Cabbagetown Red Tory|
|I believe there is a strong possibility of the Premier losing her seat. My reasons below:|
1. Many dedicated, core Lib. voters will stay home (fatigue, sale of Hydro one, electricity prices, and low personal popularity of the Premier)
2. Many more socially conservative minorities in the riding (Muslims especially) will not vote Liberal this time around in similar numbers due to a few of the reasons above and sex ed. changes/social policy reforms they find excessive.
3. The PCs have a very strong candidate (Jon Kieran), who is a moderate Red Tory, an expert on the electricity system and long time energy exec. who was Bill Davis' speechwriter, well accomplished, studied at LSE. Kieran has many volunteers (50+ regular) who are energized and motivated to take out the Premier.
4. Kieran will likely be well funded and resourced, and *should* receive plenty of central PC party support given the strategic nature of the race. if the Premier is knocked out but we have a minority parliament, that will weaken the Libs dramatically in coalition negotiations and post-election manoeuvring.
5. Hubris. DVW has been a Liberal fort for over 15 years. The Premier will have a province wide campaign to run. It is possible that the expectation of a victory here will dull the incumbent's dedication to hard work. Internal party polling, however, shows the Premier is behind by 8 points.
Either way, a strong swing to the PCs, coupled with an uninspiring local NDP machine and a fatigued Lib base could make Kieran the Queenslayer.
|Like it or not, Kathleen Wynne is safe in her seat. If the Liberals lose province-wide and she resigns from politics, they would also be strongly favoured in a by-election.|
Don Valley West, for the most part, is very affluent (although there are pockets where such is not the case), and the Liberals do very well among the ?urban rich? these days as they tend to be very liberal culturally and socially, while opposing the NDP due to the thought they are too cozy to unions and higher taxes. The large Muslim population in Flemingdon Park will also be strongly on her side, as while Patrick Brown is reaching out to them and showing himself as very multicultural, the rural base of the party has many members that have anti-Islamic views, and they have influence in the federal party.
In the past, the PC's would have been favoured in this situation. However, politics has changed and that strongly benefits the Liberals these days here.
|This could be an interesting Ignatieff case with the leader going down with the ship, but it depends on two factors. |
1 - Can the PC candidate turn Wynnes blue liberal/red Tory neighbours against her?
2 - Will the PC outreach to Muslim communities show results?
|The fact that this is the premier's riding, doesn't make it a safe Liberal seat, nor does the fact that Kathleen Wynne may still be popular here. If you look at the history of the riding, they always vote for the future not the past. In 2003 for example, they had a popular MPP, a strong cabinet minister who ran a decent campaign, but when it became obvious that the Liberals were going to win, they voted in their star candidate. In 2007, when it became apparent that the Liberals would win they chose the rising star of the Liberals instead of an opposition leader with uncertain future. If I was an oddsmaker, I'd put the odds in percentage at 60-39-1(L-PC-NDP), but we won't know till the campaign is going|
|Every election the Tories feel they have the ability to defeat Kathleen Wynne in Don Valley West. It's not going to happen unless the Liberals are polling around 25%.|
|This is Kathleen Wynne's riding and will probably stay Liberal, but considering the contradictory polling numbers not ready to call it quite yet. In 2011 federally, the Tories barely won this and that was a highwater mark. It is fairly wealthy but also fairly educated so sort of your John Tory type stronghold so on the one hand the PCs are trying to move more in that direction which is a positive, but a lot of people in this riding still see the Tories as too regressive. NDP is not a factor thus the PCs don't have the luxury of vote splitting on the left. Also Wynne was before becoming premier quite popular as MPP amongst her constituents so despite her low poll numbers provincewide not sure she is as hated here is in other parts of the province. That being said if she wins her seat, but loses the election, I suspect there will be a by-election called here within one year as I doubt she is really interested in sitting in opposition for long.|
|I am not going to discount Wynne, keeping her seat. Actually, I am not discounting her winning the election! She is a fighter and a crafty politician. While she is in the dumps at the moment, if she pulls off a good race, we might see her as premier again. Regardless, I am certain she|
|Often, when they fear they might lose, leaders will avoid their riding intentionally. Beyond this, they have been known to order resources out of their riding to other more needy ridings. It is seen as respectable to be defeated at the polls and go down with your ship. Given the context of this election; that the PC's may win, Wynne is likely to use this here, and if her government loses, we can expect her to lose her seat as well.|
|This one can go either way. While most polls favour the Tories, the Liberals are not out of it yet. Anything can happen in the next six months. If the Tories continue to lead, then, they'll definitely pick up this riding, if not, it's the premier's riding and the Liberals will take it.|