Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Don Valley West

Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:38:00

Constituency Profile









    Don Valley West
   Hon Kathleen O. Wynne

   (87.50% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    St. Paul's
   Hon Eric Hoskins

   (12.50% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):99820

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

21830 56.30%
12504 32.25%
2665 6.87%
1237 3.19%
OTHERS 536 1.38%
Total Transposed 38771

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Don Valley West

Total Transposed32570

     St. Paul's

Total Transposed6201

Federal Election Result (2015):

Rob Oliphant
John Carmichael **
Syeda Riaz
Natalie Hunt **
John Kittredge
Elizabeth Hill
Sharon Cromwell


06/06/2018 The Lobster
This'll be tight but this doesn't strike me as one of the last Liberal holdouts. DVE is more friendly territory for the Grits. And the recent trends of leaders losing their seats in landslides seems likely to hold. Tories by about 5%.
01/06/2018 MF
With the Liberals headed for a catastrophic result, I think DVW may be one of their few holdouts. It's not a good fit for the populist Doug Ford at all, nor is there a strong enough NDP universe to pull a large number of votes away on the left. Remaining Liberal support seems most concentrated in the ridings where John Tory did best municipally. While a more mainstream PC leader like Christine Elliott would have won this easily, I say Kathleen Wynne hangs on with Ford leading the PCs.
31/05/2018 QuebecCityOliver
For the premier to lose this seat, voters have to vote for someone else. That is highly likely. In fact, now, it is certain.
Charest was always in a marginal seat (Sherbrooke) - so voter could easily switch to one other party. What is often ignored is that just 2 years later Marois also lost her seat (Charlevoix) because the seat has been slowly eating up the outer eastern parts of Quebec City to maintain its population requirements. And those voters are less PQ and more flexible.
So, back to Don Valley West - Will Liberal voters switch to the NDP or Doug Ford's PCs. I don't know, but neither does anyone else.
Basically, the maths is this, if the Liberals hold onto about 30% in this seat, the PCs win, if they drop below 25% the NDP win, assuming the bleed is heavily to the NDP which is the Quebec federal experience of 2011. I was shocked to see both the federal conservatives and the BQ lose their safe seats in Quebec City because the switch was so high. It only takes 40% to win a seat in 3 way races (even less, sometimes).
29/05/2018 Joe
Look at the list, it's illogical how this is still categorized as Liberal hold (as are literally) every single other one right now. 11 PC, 1 Liberal. As other commenters said, no way Wynne is holding on. PC party runs away in this one.
5/28/2018 brian graff
most sources have this as too close to call, or going pc
25/05/2018 Teddy Boragina
Look at what happened to Charest, and Getty, and Clark. People hold Premiers responsible and will vote against them in their own riding (in Getty's and Clark's case, even if they win re-election as premier!)
Wynne won't win. The only question is who does, PC or NDP. Hence, my projection is PC/NDP, with the much better chances going to the PC Party.
If possible, using that nice p_cpnd.gif file image you guys have as my projection!
5/24/2018 Laurence Putnam
This riding has always been a default-Liberal riding but with distinct Tory leanings. When the high tide comes in for the Tories, this riding usually falls their way. Having the Premier as the incumbent I think would have saved this riding had Liberal numbers held at 30%; probably would have still been OK at 25%. But the way things are going particularly in the Toronto area and given Wynne's deep unpopularity at that point; this to me is looking a lot like a 1993 federal PC's or 2001 BC NDP election where every Liberal is under threat. In this case I'm no longer convinced being the Premier is going to help Kathleen Wynne here. Just as so many other leaders have done when their party begins to trail this badly, I think now, and only in the past week, that the blue wave is about to wash over the Don Valley too.
5/22/2018 Joe
It's clear the momentum has long shifted away from Wynne here, no electoral predictions have Don Valley West going Liberal anymore. Also recent polls have shown multiple double-digit leads for the PC challenger, this should be a safe pickup for them.
Correction: I have just been told that David Peterson lost his seat in the 1990 general election. How quickly we forget ...
I went for my first sign-counting walk through Leaside, going along Millwood, McRae, Sutherland and Donlea, with a short detour to Eglinton and Laird to enjoy an espresso at Starbucks. Signs along the route were Wynne 10, Kieran 7. That proves little or nothing, for it's early days yet, but my guess is that Wynne has the inside track. It's very unusual for a premier to lose his/her own seat in a general election. Unless I'm mistaken, the last time it happened was in 1948, when George Drew lost his seat even though his PC party was victorious. Besides, Doug Ford is a hard sell in a constituency with many well-educated people. His limited education, his defiant ignorance -- remember he had not heard of Margaret Atwood -- and his folksiness play less well here than in some other areas. The Liberals are headed for defeat, but Wynne should be able to hang on to DVW.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
'... a poll by Campaign Research, commissioned by LiUNA, shows that Wynne is trailing in her own riding. The poll has the PCs at 43%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 19%.'
20/05/2018 The Jacal
Kathleen wynne is in serious trouble here and wouldn't be surprise if she suffers the same fate as David Peterson in 1990. Losing the election and their seat in the process.
06/05/2018 Dennis Thivierge
Jon Keiran is running an excellent campaign in this riding and has been knocking on doors for some time now. Mrs Wynne is in trouble in her own riding as she has not appeared at any all candidates meetings and has not made herself available! It would not surprise me if Jon
As long as the election is centred on the liberals vs Ford Wynne will lose her seat...
28/04/2018 Joe
I'm going with the PC's having an edge in Wynne's riding, if only because the forecast predictions were worth gold last time, and will be again this this year. They actually give a fair boost to the Liberals in DVW but her history is actually hurting her among this community, meaning that a strong candidate in Jon Kieran should be able to grab the core even if his party slips a bit more in Toronto.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals are bleeding support faster than red ink; only the fact that Wynne is Premier can save this seat.
Too close to call.
24/04/2018 Jonesy
The swing that is being displayed in the polls is enough, with the help of the NDP siphoning left-wing votes, to unseat deeply unpopular Premier Kathleen Wynne from her own seat of Don Valley West. This is a very real threat and would be a devastating blow to the Liberals to have the Premier lose her seat.
13/04/2018 Kulj79
Kathleen Wynne will retain this seat easily but I do think the PCs will win the election and that she'll only stick around as an MPP for under a year.
06/04/2018 Kyle H
What 'Ford phenomenon' is supposedly happening? The margins we have now are the same margins we had before when Brown was prefer. If you want to cherry pick I can point to polls showing the PCs *dropping* in T.O. since he won the leadership. There is no such thing perceptible yet, you're trying to make Ford a Trump when he's barely faced an electoral test - oh, apologies, he has, in 2014, where he lost the wards covering DVW by between 30-40%. Not quite the phenom back then was he.
Wynne will win this riding. It may be closer than previous, but she'll win. It would take an immense wave, and I mean the OLP in the teens, to push her out here. I'd check the by-election after to see if it flips then.
06/04/2018 Peter G.
After the PCs chose Ford as leader I pretty much completely wrote off their chances here, since Ford is a very different kind of Conservative than those who've historically attracted support in this very 'establishment,' 'fiscally conservative but socially liberal' riding. But subsequently with Wynne's release of her extremely spendthrift, NDP-ish election budget, I've decided we may have a close race after all. Whereas this is a 'blue Liberal/red Tory' riding, this election's Liberal option is not 'blue' and the Tory option is not 'red,' so they almost cancel each other out (although the Tory candidate here, Jon Kieran, is very upfront in declaring himself a 'red Tory'). Wynne has gotten a big boost due to local popularity here in the past, but with her extremely low general popularity of late, her name on the ballot is now just as likely to hurt her chances. If Kieran can make the local campaign about Wynne's spending habits while presenting himself as a moderating influence on Ford, while also perhaps doing a little sex-ed wedge-politicking in Thorncliffe on the side, he can make this a race. It would still be an upset, but if some of the current polling numbers are correct, it's definitely in the realm of possibility.
05/04/2018 C. H.
Although this is not Ford territory, Wynne being the candidate here and extremely unpopular cannot possibly help the Liberals, and with the Liberals polling as poorly as they are this could definitely swing either Liberal or PC.
27/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
This clearly should be in the TCTC column. It has lots of Tory roots and the depth of the Ford phenomenon is perceptible everywhere, even here. Kathleen obviously will be a lightening rod for opponents. This will be a street-by-streets, door-to-door brawl. Watch for many, many Premier's Office staff to invade.
20/03/2018 seasaw
Sure, many people believe that the election of Doug Ford as PC Leader, makes this out of the Tories reach and for a good reason. We do, however, have to look at both sides of the coin. Expectations from Ford are very low, which means all he has to do is not say or do anything stupid and just run a campaign and also a difficult but doable task of not getting slaughtered in the debate and he can win. In the past, every politician who has outperformed his/her expectation ( Chr
20/03/2018 RJC
An Elliott-led PC Party may have been able to oust the Premier here, but Ford is the wrong kind of Tory for much of this seat. It'll be closer than last time, but Wynne should be able to hang on (with a possible byelection in the next term if the Liberals lose government).
17/03/2018 A.S.
The only reason this wouldn't be a 60-39-1 riding (as per seasaw) is that the NDP bottom here is more like 5 than 1--but yes, the fact of a Doug Ford leadership ensures it'll be difficult to bring Wynne below the high 50s share she's become used to, much less bring her down altogether. Even if it involves a little SoCon anti-sex-ed stunt Torying in Thorncliffe...
14/03/2018 Dr.Bear
DVW has been a dead zone for Doug Ford. He did terribly here in the municipal election and in the PC leadership race. Premier Wynne is a very good campaigner and she should get enough support to keep her seat. Win the election...that's another story....
12/03/2018 M. Lunn
With Doug Ford chosen as leader and this voting for Elliott massively Wynne should be safe. This is winneable by the PC's but Ford is the wrong type. He will help the party in the working class suburbs but hurt them in the upper middle class ones. This riding in demographics is a lot like your Romney-Clinton areas and Conservative remain in Britain. Ford more appeals to Ontario's version of Obama-Trump voters and Labour leave.
12/03/2018 Stevo
Doug Ford's leadership will probably remake the electoral map in ways we do not expect, and the PCs might pick up previously unimaginable seats. But no, the Premier's seat will not be one of them. If I'm not mistaken, DVW is the wealthiest riding in the 416. Premier Wynne has a lock on this even if her party goes down to a crushing defeat, as seems likely.
12/03/2018 MF
DVW has the highest average income and is one of the most highly educated ridings in the province. With Doug Ford leading the PCs, Kathleen Wynne will not lose this very 'establishment' riding.
16/02/2018 PunditPicks
Kathleen Wynne is exceedingly unpopular and disliked throughout Ontario (12-17% approval rating). This is a riding that was won by the federal Conservatives in 2011 and was held by the provincial PCs during their previous government (1995-2003). With the Liberals currently polling 10% or more behind the PCs, and the unpopular Brown out of the way - I'd bet on Wynne being unseated due to her own personal unpopularity and hubris.
09/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
I believe there is a strong possibility of the Premier losing her seat. My reasons below:
1. Many dedicated, core Lib. voters will stay home (fatigue, sale of Hydro one, electricity prices, and low personal popularity of the Premier)
2. Many more socially conservative minorities in the riding (Muslims especially) will not vote Liberal this time around in similar numbers due to a few of the reasons above and sex ed. changes/social policy reforms they find excessive.
3. The PCs have a very strong candidate (Jon Kieran), who is a moderate Red Tory, an expert on the electricity system and long time energy exec. who was Bill Davis' speechwriter, well accomplished, studied at LSE. Kieran has many volunteers (50+ regular) who are energized and motivated to take out the Premier.
4. Kieran will likely be well funded and resourced, and *should* receive plenty of central PC party support given the strategic nature of the race. if the Premier is knocked out but we have a minority parliament, that will weaken the Libs dramatically in coalition negotiations and post-election manoeuvring.
5. Hubris. DVW has been a Liberal fort for over 15 years. The Premier will have a province wide campaign to run. It is possible that the expectation of a victory here will dull the incumbent's dedication to hard work. Internal party polling, however, shows the Premier is behind by 8 points.
Either way, a strong swing to the PCs, coupled with an uninspiring local NDP machine and a fatigued Lib base could make Kieran the Queenslayer.
2017-12-26 Craig
Like it or not, Kathleen Wynne is safe in her seat. If the Liberals lose province-wide and she resigns from politics, they would also be strongly favoured in a by-election.
Don Valley West, for the most part, is very affluent (although there are pockets where such is not the case), and the Liberals do very well among the ?urban rich? these days as they tend to be very liberal culturally and socially, while opposing the NDP due to the thought they are too cozy to unions and higher taxes. The large Muslim population in Flemingdon Park will also be strongly on her side, as while Patrick Brown is reaching out to them and showing himself as very multicultural, the rural base of the party has many members that have anti-Islamic views, and they have influence in the federal party.
In the past, the PC's would have been favoured in this situation. However, politics has changed and that strongly benefits the Liberals these days here.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
This could be an interesting Ignatieff case with the leader going down with the ship, but it depends on two factors.
1 - Can the PC candidate turn Wynnes blue liberal/red Tory neighbours against her?
2 - Will the PC outreach to Muslim communities show results?
19/12/2017 seasaw
The fact that this is the premier's riding, doesn't make it a safe Liberal seat, nor does the fact that Kathleen Wynne may still be popular here. If you look at the history of the riding, they always vote for the future not the past. In 2003 for example, they had a popular MPP, a strong cabinet minister who ran a decent campaign, but when it became obvious that the Liberals were going to win, they voted in their star candidate. In 2007, when it became apparent that the Liberals would win they chose the rising star of the Liberals instead of an opposition leader with uncertain future. If I was an oddsmaker, I'd put the odds in percentage at 60-39-1(L-PC-NDP), but we won't know till the campaign is going
17/12/2017 KXS
Every election the Tories feel they have the ability to defeat Kathleen Wynne in Don Valley West. It's not going to happen unless the Liberals are polling around 25%.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is Kathleen Wynne's riding and will probably stay Liberal, but considering the contradictory polling numbers not ready to call it quite yet. In 2011 federally, the Tories barely won this and that was a highwater mark. It is fairly wealthy but also fairly educated so sort of your John Tory type stronghold so on the one hand the PCs are trying to move more in that direction which is a positive, but a lot of people in this riding still see the Tories as too regressive. NDP is not a factor thus the PCs don't have the luxury of vote splitting on the left. Also Wynne was before becoming premier quite popular as MPP amongst her constituents so despite her low poll numbers provincewide not sure she is as hated here is in other parts of the province. That being said if she wins her seat, but loses the election, I suspect there will be a by-election called here within one year as I doubt she is really interested in sitting in opposition for long.
12/12/2017 Dr.Bear
I am not going to discount Wynne, keeping her seat. Actually, I am not discounting her winning the election! She is a fighter and a crafty politician. While she is in the dumps at the moment, if she pulls off a good race, we might see her as premier again. Regardless, I am certain she
12/12/2017 teddy boragina
Often, when they fear they might lose, leaders will avoid their riding intentionally. Beyond this, they have been known to order resources out of their riding to other more needy ridings. It is seen as respectable to be defeated at the polls and go down with your ship. Given the context of this election; that the PC's may win, Wynne is likely to use this here, and if her government loses, we can expect her to lose her seat as well.
10/12/2017 seasaw
This one can go either way. While most polls favour the Tories, the Liberals are not out of it yet. Anything can happen in the next six months. If the Tories continue to lead, then, they'll definitely pick up this riding, if not, it's the premier's riding and the Liberals will take it.

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