Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Durham


Prediction Changed
2017-12-22 17:07:30
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Anderson, Granville

Park, Lindsey


Incumbent(s):
    Durham
   Granville Anderson

   (79.34% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Oshawa
   Jennifer K. French

   (17.14% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Whitby-Oshawa
   Lorne Coe

   (3.51% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):115395


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16532 34.19%
15768 32.61%
13752 28.44%
1899 3.93%
OTHERS 405 0.84%
Total Transposed 48356

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Durham

14288
12695
10078
1606
Others387
Total Transposed39053

     Oshawa

1883
2384
3237
216
Others0
Total Transposed7720

     Whitby-Oshawa

362
688
438
77
Others18
Total Transposed1584


Federal Election Result (2015):

Erin O'Toole **
2896745.10%
Corinna Traill
2294935.80%
Derek Spence
1028916.00%
Stacey Leadbetter
16162.50%
Andrew Moriarity
3640.60%


 

21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
PCs had no business losing this seat in 2014. They should pick this back up even with a marginal increase in the province.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This was probably one of the biggest shockers last election, but considering the change in the political landscape never mind federally the Tories almost won by 10 points here, the PCs would need a massive blunder to not win here. This is one of their easiest pickings.
09/12/2017 KXS
69.157.99.23
The lowest of low hanging fruit for the Tories.
The Liberals won this riding in 2014 due to a weak PC candidate, PC compliancy and Hudak's '100 000 jobs cut'. None of those factors will play off this time around.
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
The PCs narrowly lost this long held riding in 2014 because of Liberal Majority. I suspect they will have no trouble winning it back.



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