Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Etobicoke North

Prediction Changed
2018-02-04 12:57:00

Constituency Profile








    Etobicoke North
   Shafiq Qaadri

   (94.68% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Etobicoke Centre
   Yvan Baker

   (5.32% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):117601

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13322 45.65%
6579 22.54%
7493 25.67%
708 2.43%
OTHERS 1083 3.71%
Total Transposed 29184

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Etobicoke North

Total Transposed27098

     Etobicoke Centre

Total Transposed2086

Federal Election Result (2015):

Kirsty Duncan **
Toyin Dada
Faisal Hassan
Akhtar Ayub
Anna Di Carlo
George Szebik


06/06/2018 MF
Etobicoke North is a Ford riding, not a PC riding and projection models are irrelevant here. Funny to think that not one but two party leaders have deprived the NDP of otherwise very winnable target seats.
05/06/2018 RD
One would think the allegations that Doug ripped off his brother's widow and children while driving the family business into the ground would hit hardest close to home. I predict a minority or narrow majority for the PCs on Thursday(NDP just seems to have too much ground to climb province-wide) but that Ford loses his seat to Mahamud Amin and his caucus dumps him shortly thereafter.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
Prediction models show the NDP winning this! I don't think that's going to happen. I think that the OLP in a save-the-furniture effort will significantly split the vote, allowing DoFo to win.
29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
Frankly, Etobicoke North liked Rob and Doug Sr. They did excellent constituency work and they were likeable guys. Doug Jr. is not likeable: he become councillor off of his family name. And as a party leader, they know that he won't have time to care much about his constituency. And can you imagine a better impetus for strategic voting on the left than Ford as the local candidate. Even with his inbuilt advantage of, 'too close to call' and Global news still puts him behind the NDP and LISPOP says TCTC.
5/28/2018 The Elites
I think this was called for the PCs far too early. It's entirely possible for both Ford and Wynne to lose their ridings. The NDP are polling extremely well and are surprisingly competitive in the GTA, according to the last Ipsos poll. Every projection site I've seen has EN going to the NDP, so they're obviously very competitive here.
Also, the Liberal candidate rather rudely crashed Horwath's event here today. That's going to backfire on them. However, I can't count out Ford in his own riding, but whoever wins here won't win by much. This will be one of the closest ridings on election day. This needs to be TCTC for now.
26/05/2018 The Hedonist
Polls indicate PCs will win - the Ford's have represented Etobicoke North for many many years and anybody who thinks a Ford will lose in Etobicoke North shouldn't be predicting on this website.
Easy PC gain here, Etobicoke is Ford Country. PCs are also polling well in Etobicoke as of this post.
Local poll shows Ford in trouble in his own riding...and the recent scandals are sticking
19/05/2018 The Jackal
While this won't be a cakewalk Ford will win here. The numbers are clearly showing a huge breakthrough for the PC's in Metro Toronto
25/04/2018 GritBusters
Soon Ontarians will realize that the platform that the PCs have HASHed out is not all that it's CRACKed up to be. I therefore suggest that Doug Ford make sure that he has more than enough to drink at home when Andrea Horwath becomes Premier of Ontario on June 7 and he's forced to drown his sorrows.
Even so, the OLP is such a tire-fire right now that Ford will at least pick-up this seat.
Moreover, the result won't be anywhere near as close as the Grits hope keep it.
07/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal budget bounce was short-lived, and they ended up worse than they stood previously.
That, and the fact that the PCs were polling 50% in Etobicoke last summer, long before there was any thought that a local boy could be the leader, point to a PC victory.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
I would not give this riding over to Doug Ford so readily.
Listen, I get it, the guy's last name is popular here, municipally, and that is a very strong case for flipping it to the PCs. On the other hand though, the two spheres can be very different; priorities are not the same, the people are different, heck even who can *vote* is different between the two levels.
Let me also be blunt - Doug Ford is not his brother Rob. As much as I thought he was a goof, I respected Rob's commitment to good constituency work. Doug by every account I can find had none of the same qualities, the dude acted more as his brother's manager than as a city councillor. Will it matter? I don't know, but it's dangerous to rely on a surname alone, and I'm not convinced Doug Ford has the chops to cut it as a retail politician that can overturn a 22-point deficit, especially against an incumbent.
That's the other kicker, of course. Is Qaadri running? No one apparently knows except the man himself. Polls from 2013 said Ford could win, but that was five years ago - is the situation better or worse? How will scrutiny on him as a past mayoral candidate and now potential Premier affect his chances? Was that poll even accurate? If Qaadri does step down, Ford's chances definitely rise... but I doubt the Liberals will sit by and just cede the riding to him either.
So yes, I'd say Doug Ford is in the running for the riding, definitely. Is he a sure-thing? I question that assumption.
26/03/2018 John K.
The Fords have campaigned for the PC or Conservative candidates every election and they never seem to help. Let's not forget Kirsty Duncan (Liberal) won more than 60% of the vote here federally the last time around, and provincially last time the PCs came in third. This is going to be competitive. It all comes down to the NDP vote, and whether it takes enough vote away from the Liberals to keep the PCs competitive.
29/03/2018 John K.
Provincially and federally this is not a PC riding. The poster below says Councillor Ford and Cristanti have weight? They have always (including Rob and Doug) supported and campaigned for the PC party, and it's never worked before. Not saying Doug won't win, but it's not because of they bring 'weight' with their support. I still have this as TCTC, depending on whether the NDP vote goes to the Liberals (assuming the NDP don't have a chance at winning the election)
25/03/2018 Mir-Interstingly-Ontario
I see a PC (Doug Ford) win. Rob Ford was Councillor for almost 12 years. 10 years before he became mayor, 2 years in his last term after Mayor. Local Councillors are Vincent Crisanti and Michael Ford. VC has mentioned his support for Doug Ford, MF obviously will support Doug Ford. Both VC and MF are extremely popular and their opinions carry big weight in the riding.
Qaadri's popularity has been going down and he won't survive.
24/03/2018 seasaw
It's too early to call this riding for the PC's, sure, Mr Ford is personally popular, and certainly Mr Ford won this municipally on a couple of occasions, once as a councillor and once as a mayoral candidate, but that doesn't guarantee his win provincially. This is another one of the ridings that we have to wait until Election Day draws closer to predict
17/03/2018 A.S.
May I add a note of circumspection about the 'inevitability' of a Doug Ford win. Of course, the most 'duh' thing being that Etobicoke North's not an ordinarily Tory sort of seat; and on top of that, the supposed Ford municipal 'magic' has thus far had a dismal record of translating into provincial or federal results (and that includes the third-place provincial PC result in 2014). Though oddly, sluggish results have also plagued Grit incumbent Quadri; which might even lead one to the cheeky (and in a Jagmeet Singh era especially, not unrealistic at all) conclusion that Etobicoke North's NDP-targetable. In any event, *that's* the full tableau the PC Leader Doug Ford smokescreen's positioned against--he's running in a seat that's 'competitive' in all directions, and not in a way that'd ordinarily favour his side, either. (That is, force of personality and machine aside, DoFo's task is far more quixotic than that of Justin in Papineau in 2008.) So, I'm not denying Ford home-turf victory; but I'm not guaranteeing it, either. And because this is party-based provincial politics as opposed to personality-based municipal politics, it almost certainly won't be the 2/3 or 3/4 local landslide the Fords are used to--it's not like Doug's going to be 'Percy Hatfielded', certainly not with those riding demographics...
14/03/2018 ML
With Ford winning the leadership, this is probably the safest Conservative pick up in Canada, let alone Ontario. If I'm the Liberal incumbent, I'm throwing in the towel and spending June in Muskoka.
15/03/2018 Davenport87
Etobicoke North had the 69th best turnout in the PC Leadership race--and had roughly half the participation level as the other two Etobicoke ridings.
The NDP out performed the PCs in 2014 and have been competitive locally with the Tories for the last decade. A Conservative hasn't won here since 1999.
If the Liberal vote collapses, the NDP well positioned to capitalize on that vote. Any assumption the riding will vote PC based on Doug Ford's local popularity are premature.
13/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Civility be damned, Ford won the PC leadership race. He will certainly take Etobicoke North and several others in suburban Toronto. As for the rest of the province, that remains to be seen. One prediction is for certain: the circus is in town and it's going to be a spectacle.
12/03/2018 M. Lunn
Normally a very safe Liberal riding, but this the heart of the Ford Nation so with Doug Ford as leader they will win this even if they lose provincially.
11/03/2018 JC
Doug Ford being elected PC leader will upset some long held assumptions for party strength.
Etobicoke North and York West are prime examples. These two ridings were two of the safest Liberal seats, electing Liberals with comfortable margin even during the 2011 Ignatieff meltdown. However, these two ridings are also where Doug Ford had his best performances in 2014 mayoralty race against John Tory.
With Doug Ford's name on the ballot here in Etobicoke, this seat is certainly going PC. The Ford brand is simply too strong in this area.
11/02/2018 Sheikhster
Not sure why ppl are saying this still too close. Rob Ford ran as councillor in the last municipal election when he dropped out of mayoral race; he probably didn
07/02/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
IF Dougie wins the leadership he'll then run for the open PC nomination here and WIN this riding100%. Etob. North and York Centre are the only g.u.a.r.a.n.t.e.e.d. PC pickups in Toronto.
Qaadri has not yet been nominated as the Lib. candidate, which is strange, I do not know if he will be running for a fifth term.
This is a blue collar/working class/immigrant community and is the beating heart of Ford Nation.
07/02/2018 Dr.Bear
I think the PC call is premature. Let's think of the most likely scenario: Doug Ford loses the PC leadership (and for the sake of civility, I sincerely hope he does). Is he going to stick around and play backbencher to Elliot or Mulroney (or worse, sit in opposition), or is he going to stomp off yapping about how unfair the system is and the elites in the party screwed him over? I say the latter.
06/02/2018 Craig
I'm not ready to call this for Doug Ford yet...since we don't know if he will run even if he loses the leadership race. He would definitely be favoured over both the Liberals and NDP, since he can draw votes from both of those groups (which is necessary in a diverse, working-class riding), but he would be a huge liability in more upscale ridings, and he is untested in rural Ontario.
If Doug Ford runs as leader, he should win easily, as he dominated the municipal elections, winning both wards comprising this riding with large majorities of the vote (as did Rob in 2010). If he runs and is not leader, he should still be favoured but not be an easy win, as the anti-Ford vote would likely coalesce around the Liberals. Without Ford, this should be a Liberal hold, although both the PC's and NDP might have some openings (in many ways, this riding is more like Brampton or Malton than most of the 416).
04/02/2018 Teddy Boragina
While not a shoe-in, Doug Ford certain is the person to beat in this riding.
Expect a closer race than many think. the Liberals will not go down easy.
04/02/2018 Sheikhster
With Ford now running pls flip this and likely all Etobicoke riding to PC blue
29/01/2018 M. Lunn
With Doug Ford now running, he may be the candidate and considering this is the heart of the Ford Nation, he just might flip this traditionally safe Liberal riding in their favour. But he is a liability to the province elsewhere so if they choose him, he may pick up this and a couple other ridings, but will probably cost the party at least 20 ridings elsewhere and perhaps the election outright.
29/12/2017 seasaw
This is a pretty safe Liberal riding, that's not saying that the Tories have absolutely no chance here. The Tories will need a big surge in support in the 416 area and even then, they're about 14 ridings that can go Tory before this one. While it's possible and maybe probable, we have to call this as it stands today and probably till the end of the election. So Liberal hold
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Had the PCs run Doug Ford, they might have had a shot as this is the heart of the Ford Nation, but otherwise this is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province and the PCs unless they have a Ford surname are never really a factor here. However, by not choosing Doug Ford as candidate it probably cost them this riding, but helped them in many others as he is an easy one for the Liberals to attack which would have hurt the PCs elsewhere.

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