Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

King-Vaughan


Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:02:16
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Iafrate, Marilyn

Lecce, Stephen


Incumbent(s):
    Vaughan
   Hon Steven Del Duca

   (82.96% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (17.04% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109235


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17618 51.31%
11084 32.28%
3986 11.61%
1022 2.98%
OTHERS 627 1.83%
Total Transposed 34337

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Vaughan

14610
8006
3301
620
Others510
Total Transposed27047

     Oak Ridges-Markham

3008
3078
685
403
Others117
Total Transposed7291


Federal Election Result (2015):

Deb Schulte
2590847.40%
Konstantin Toubis
2417044.20%
Natalie Rizzo
35716.50%
Ann Raney
10371.90%


 

14/12/2017
99.228.128.85
There is no reason at all why this is being predicted as a toss up. This riding will go PC. It includes the rural King township and the Jewish area of the riding by Thornhill. Yes, Maple tends to be more Liberal but in the federal election that is what barely pushed the Liberals in a red wave. The PCs are polling VERY high in York Region. This riding will go PC.
11/12/2017 Andy
99.228.49.27
A PC walk. The Liberals are very unpopular in York Region and the PC's have a star candidate running, no contest.
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
The PC's have a great local candidate in Stephen Lecce. Also, this riding only went Liberal federally by just a 1000 votes in what was considered a massive Liberal sweep. Liberals are not polling quite like that provincially. PC pick up.
04/12/2017
99.228.104.19
PC pick up. Unpopular Liberals running against strong PC candidate Stephen Lecce.



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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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