Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Markham-Unionville


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:34:29
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Yeung-Collucci, Amanda


Incumbent(s):
    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (52.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Markham-Unionville
   Hon Michael Chan

   (47.58% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):104693


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15142 43.88%
14082 40.81%
3430 9.94%
1311 3.80%
OTHERS 546 1.58%
Total Transposed 34510

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oak Ridges-Markham

7205
7991
2018
514
Others379
Total Transposed18107

     Markham-Unionville

7937
6091
1412
797
Others167
Total Transposed16403


Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Saroya
2460549.40%
Bang-Gu Jiang
2159643.30%
Colleen Zimmerman
25285.10%
Elvin Kao
11102.20%


 

21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Strong Liberal candidate here should not be discounted. Local councillor who, according to the Liberals, signed up thousands of members for her nomination. Let's see who the PCs run.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This was probably one of the biggest surprises federally as I assumed they would only win this if they won the majority of seats in Ontario which they did not. Still this has a strong Liberal base and I suspect this will be close to the provincial average rather than favouring the Tories like it did federally so at the moment leans PC, but could go Liberal if the Liberals rebound. Also noticed the federal Tories held or even slightly increased their vote in ridings with large Chinese populations and I heard marijuana legalization was very unpopular amongst the Chinese community, but provincially this will be a non-issue.
10/12/2017
99.228.128.85
With Michael Chan not running in this redistributed riding, which I may add went Conservative federally in a horrible election for the Tories, I see the PCs getting this seat easily.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster