Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Niagara Centre


Prediction Changed
2018-05-09 12:07:16
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

BURCH, JEFF

CRAWFORD, JOE

DIAS, JOE

JEFFS, APRIL

MERCIER, BENOIT

PIETRUSZKO, PATRICK

SMAGATA-BRYAN, DARIO

SOOS, STEVEN


Incumbent(s):
    Welland
   Cindy Forster

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):105860


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8674 20.42%
11313 26.64%
20334 47.88%
1713 4.03%
OTHERS 435 1.02%
Total Transposed 42468

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Welland

8674
11313
20334
1713
Others435
Total Transposed42468


Federal Election Result (2015):

Vance Badawey
1951335.70%
Malcolm Allen **
1721831.50%
Leanna Villella
1624829.70%
David Clow
13162.40%
Jody Di Bartolomeo
2910.50%
Ron J. Walker
960.20%


 

5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
While I nominally agree with the fact that this could be susceptible to a populist wave, the NDP are surging in SW Ontario, including Niagara. They have capitalized off of a OLP collapse and now the PCs are starting to bleed support to them. Unless there is a resurgence in DoFo support (not PC support but specifically support for Doug) then this will safely stay in NDP hands.
18/05/2018 SS
24.212.154.103
The NDP are surging in the polls at Liberal expense which makes it hard for them to lose seats and will generally help them win more.. but in NDP-PC races like this one, the NDP are more vulnerable. They could very well lose this seat even if they have a overall net gain of 10 seats provincewide.
09/05/2018 Preston Manning
70.50.218.163
Niagara Centre may not be a safe seat for the New Democrats, this riding is susceptible to anti-establishment populist rhetoric in the form of Doug Ford like how the Rust Belt fell to Trump. Also the PC candidate is a well known and friendly mayor of a local town, the NDP candidate doesn't live in the riding and is in charge of a multicultural, pro diversity organization which may not play well with white working class of Welland (95% white)
08/05/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The Liberal vote in Hamilton-Niagara has collapsed: NDP hold.
07/05/2018
104.247.230.176
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%..this will be a NDP hold
23/04/2018
108.161.125.55
The NDP candidate Jeff Burch is opening his committee room...and is going all out...I suspect he is not assuming this is 'his' riding. The aggressive approach to holding this riding will stands him in good stead. Burch has campaign experience and it shows...He will win
03/04/2018 Laurence Putnam
50.98.33.108
With a 20-point margin of victory well ahead of the NDP's province-wide results, even without the advantage of the local incumbent, I think the smart money here has to stay with the NDP. Libs don't stand a chance; the Lib collapse will shore up the NDP vote and there doesn't appear to be much Lib support anyway. As previously stated, PC's would need, literally, all the Lib votes to overtake the NDP.
I do agree there will be a populist PC surge, probably best result here since the '90s. But I think the NDP should still hang on.
03/04/2018 Stephen B
135.23.122.204
Too close to call is right. It's a huge gap from 2014 that the Tories have to close, but the Liberals did it here federally in 2015. The Tories have a relatively stong candidate; there's no guarantee that the NDP keeps this.
31/03/2018 Anthony
76.67.55.12
The NDP have held this seat since 1975 prior to Peter Kormos winning it in 1988. The PC
27/03/2018 Stevo
165.225.76.199
It was a strong NDP seat BECAUSE of Peter Kormos. It was just incidental that he happened to represent the NDP. This area is absolutely ripe for Ford Nation and I fully expect the PCs to target it.
29/03/2018 KXS
174.112.172.78
People tend to forget that Andrea Horwath is a populist too.
Andrea Horwath's NDP appeals more to ridings such as Niagara Centre than Toronto Centre.
24/03/2018 Anthony
76.67.55.12
This has been one of the safest NDP seats provincially that they have held since 1990 with Peter Kormos and then Cindy Forster. I don
20/03/2018 Tory in Dixie
66.190.176.182
A tight race between the PCs and NDP ... if you take the Charlottetown Accord referendum (as long ago as it was) as a rough guide to how politically & culturally 'establishment' versus 'populist' an area is, assuming no major demographic changes, Welland & environs is definitely going to rank on the populist side at a 59% 'No' vote back then ... for that reason Ford might play well here ... but the NDP tradition is very strong with 43 consecutive years of being orange ... tossup at this point until we have a better idea of where the NDP are province-wide
21/03/2018 Demarcoa
192.0.154.113
Though this is an open seat, I have difficulty imagining enough of a shift in the electorate for this to be a loss for the NDP, who are about at the same level polling-wise from the last election.
19/03/2018 jeff316
69.165.157.213
Welland will be a three-way strategic voting shemozzle. Forster may not have held this with a Ford leadership. I
19/03/2018 A.S.
207.164.79.93
I suspect that in addition to the Trump/Brexit riding-profile reasoning that Craig delineates, a major factor behind Niagara Centre Tory-pickup speculation is the fact of Doug Ford making an early yet critically symbolic campaign appearance at a Welland Legion. Though I'd warn against going too far, too fast with the speculation, even if we're now confronting an unfamiliar situation: an open seat *not* within Peter Kormos' lifetime. (Also, it's not exactly under an Andrea Horwath-type leadership that one pictures a seat like this getting away.)
14/03/2018 Craig
24.213.108.184
Open seat + populist PC leader = unlikely pickup in Niagara Centre. A very working class riding, Peter Kormos seemed to be made of the same cloth as Doug Ford, even if they are on opposite sides of the spectrum, and this would be a classic Obama-Trump or Labour-Leave district.
Had Elliott won the leadership, I'd probably call this an NDP hold even though the seat is open. But not anymore...this is the kind of seat that Doug Ford could excel in.
12/03/2018 MF
69.158.152.4
With the NDP incumbent leaving, will the riding of Peter Kormos vote for the Ford-led PCs? We shall see soon enough.
19/01/2018 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.95
Cindy Forster has decided not to run again. Now it's time to see if locals voted for her or the party. I will reassess things in the weeks to come.
19/01/2018 Donald
199.167.152.50
With Cindy Foster out of the race, the playing field is more equal and the chances of the PCs improve. But still too early to make a prediction.
18/01/2018 R.O.
24.146.17.189
The ndp mpp Cindy Forster has announced she is retiring , that makes the race here more unpredictable although it has been an ndp stronghold for years .
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Most likely should stay NDP unless the Liberals completely crater and the PCs pick up all those votes. Still the Tories almost won federally in 2011 so a PC win while unlikely cannot totally be ruled out. This riding does include a small rural portion where the PCs tend to do well, but they do struggle more in the built up portions where most live.



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