Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Welland


Prediction Changed
2013-03-23 13:21:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Campion, Frank

Cridland, Donna

Forster, Cindy

Mercier, Benoit

Murik, Andrea

Incumbent:
Cindy Forster

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Welland)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    CINDY FORSTER
    1952744.66%
    DOMENIC URSINI
    1404832.13%
    BENOIT MERCIER
    863819.76%
    DONNA CRIDLAND
    10052.3%
    DONNA-LYNNE HAMILTON
    5051.15%
    2007 Result:
    * PETER KORMOS
    24,91053.94%
    JOHN MASTROIANNI
    10,58022.91%
    RON BODNER
    8,72218.88%
    MARK GRENIER
    1,9734.27%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1529432.57%
    1028721.91%
    2018742.99%


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    14 06 09 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    When it comes to Horwath populism one wonders 'WWPKD' (What Would Peter Kormos Do)--would he have been a gang-of-34 disillusioned sympathizer, or not? Or even more poignant to consider--could Kormos be the Horwath campaign's missing figurehead? Certainly, nobody could bridge unapologetic leftism and unapologetic populism like he could--maybe the ONDP's problem isn't betrayal so much as clumsiness of execution--but anyway, it's the Kormos legacy, fortuitously intersecting w/Horwath's present campaign tactics, that assures that Welland will. not. budge. this time.
    14 05 16 The Jackal
    50.100.40.135
    Thought to be a Peter Kormos seat it has turned out to be a strong NDP seat at both levels. With the numbers with the way they are I don't think this will go anything but orange.
    14 05 07 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Hold for current ndp mpp Cindy Forster . welland is a fairly reliable ndp riding at provincial level , the pc vote did grow in past elections but riding likely remains out of reach for time being . but don't see ndp not keeping seats they have won consistently in past elections.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    With Peter Kormos not running, last time around this was one that was vulnerable but the NDP still held it so with the Liberals being weak outside the GTA and the PCs unpopular amongst the labour movement (which is strong here) this should stay NDP. The PCs may have a strong second like they did federally due to a strong showing in the rural portions, but their weaknesses in the built up areas where the majority of the population lives will prevent them from winning here.
    13 03 15 kingstonstudent
    70.54.80.10
    While there was some uncertainty last time given that Peter Kormos was leaving a fairly substantial personality vacuum, the NDP still took this seat without too much trouble. This should be an easy hold for them.



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