Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:31:22

Constituency Profile



Mallo, Sarah

Potts, Arthur

Scott, Debra

    Beaches-East York
   Arthur Potts

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):107084

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17218 40.09%
5982 13.93%
16737 38.97%
2329 5.42%
OTHERS 682 1.59%
Total Transposed 42948

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Beaches-East York

Total Transposed42948

Federal Election Result (2015):

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Matthew Kellway **
Bill Burrows
Randall Sach
James Sears
Roger Carter
Peter Surjanac


08/01/2018 MF
Beaches-East York was more of a Michael Prue riding than an NDP riding - and even he was a casualty of the 2014 ONDP 'screw Toronto' strategy. The Beaches itself seems to becoming more similar to North Toronto in demographics and lifestyle and less of 'the Annex on the lake.' The NDP probably figures their best bet is to focus on the East York part of the riding with a populist appeal. However the Liberals are also offering bread and butter policies like the $15 minimum wage that will likely appeal to the retail and service working class in Toronto. The NDP can win this - but that depends on what kind of campaign they run in Toronto and whether the Liberals are headed for a small setback or catastrophe.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
I think this is competitive between the NDP and Liberals regardless or who the candidates are, but I am interested to see who the NDP will nominate. Maybe Matthew Kellway or Janet Davis? Mary McMahon is retiring at the end of her term as city councillor, So could that be possible too? If they yet a big name I think this seat will go NEO.
14/12/2017 ML
I'm slightly leaning towards the NDP for this riding but can't fully commit. The Liberals took this riding in 2014 after a surprising win over political veteran Michael Prue. I'm not sure if the NDP can drop lower than they did in 2014 when the fear of a Hudak government and a tone-deaf Horwath campaign pushed many urban progressives towards Wynne. I'm not sure if the 'fear' factor will be as powerful with Patrick Brown's apparent shift to the centre and focus on urban issues. The incumbent Arthur Potts has an impressive local presence despite being a rookie and having a low profile at Queen's Park. Should be an interesting race.
14/12/2017 seasaw
The way things stand now, this one will be a dog fight between the Liberals and the NDP, with a slight edge to the Liberals. We don't know, however, what kind of campaign each party is going to have. If the Liberals are in a winning position, then they'll definitely win this one, if not NDP will regain this seat

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