Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:16:00

Constituency Profile














    Beaches-East York
   Arthur Potts

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):107084

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17218 40.09%
5982 13.93%
16737 38.97%
2329 5.42%
OTHERS 682 1.59%
Total Transposed 42948

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Beaches-East York

Total Transposed42948

Federal Election Result (2015):

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Matthew Kellway **
Bill Burrows
Randall Sach
James Sears
Roger Carter
Peter Surjanac


29/05/2018 Cal Bruner
From the North - I've seen many more NDP signs up in the North part of the riding and more activity, and I would say signage is about even. That said NDP will have many more apartment voters. A lot of the increase NDP signage appears to be 'stop Ford' NDP returning to their base.
That said NDP neighbours after the Sunday debate (first debate I - or they saw) are shifting back to Liberal based on Wynne performance, and (I think more importantly) Horwath saying she'd never legislate back to work. I'd watch to see if there are any real subsequent swings - are voters just now tuning in?
From the South - biggest issue I heard from co-workers who live in Beaches end of riding is tax, and the increases under the Liberals. That said, they think Ford is untrustworthy and has no plan (Christine Elliot would have won in a heartbeat, btw) and the NDP are going to kill them in tax. If you're living in the Beach, you're often already over the income threshold for more tax (such is cost of living in TO).
Overall I think NDP could win a higher percentage of the vote in the North (depends on apartment turnout) but Beaches will clearly take the Beach.
If NDP can get the totality of their vote out they 'may' squeak out a win. I don't think they will - apartments are tough. The Project has called this NDP again ... and like 4 years ago, I'm calling Liberal again. I was right last time, lets see if I can create a track record ;)
With the Liberals collapsing province wide and the NDP surging to parity with the PCs, Doug Ford has got to be hoping that progressive voters aren't reading the news. They lent their votes to the Wynne Liberals to make sure the province wouldn't fall into Hudak's hands. Doug Ford is Hudak on bath salts. Unfortunately for the PCs, people in Beaches-East York tend to be pretty well read.
It helps the NDP that their candidate RimanBerns-McGown doesn't fit the PCs & Liberals favorite stereotypes. She's a respected Jewish-Canadian academic known for her research on preventing radicalization & antisemitism. She was former research director with the Mosaic Institute. She's the kind of unambiguously respectable progressive that Lib campaigns used to be able to attract. Indeed her spouse is a banker and was a long time Liberal fundraiser (he ran Liberal leadership campaign) and she's managed to bring a lot of his blue chip network along with her to the orange team.
5/24/2018 AaronInToronto
Expecting an increase in NDP support given yesterday's now public exposure of Sarah Mallo's connections to Snover Dhillon, and the BEY PC party's nomination concerns. Early talk this morning in the community amongst undecided is to shift to NDP to shore up the vote. My best determinants (statistical trends on past history to riding creation, plus informal polls) now swinging me to NDP 44%, Liberal 28% PC 22% Green >5% Other
22/05/2018 Anthony
The NDP lead both the PC
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up 52 - 22 -22 on tied Liberals and PCs in Beaches-East York. It's a small sample size, but a 30 point lead is a lot.
20/05/2018 Bza
With the NDP barely losing Beaches-East York last election after holding it through the leaner years, I expect this one to go back into the NDP column.
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
With current polling, advantage to the NDP. Following Michael Prue's surprising loss in 2014, there were reports that the NDP were not putting adequate resources into the riding in the waning days of the campaign. That turned out to be costly. Four years later and with much stronger polling numbers and a more Toronto-centric platform, I expect McGown-Berns to win in a close finish.
19/05/2018 seasaw
The way it looks now, with the Tories leading and the NDP, chipping away at their lead, the Liberal strategy is to keep all the ridings that they hold. Arthur Potts, though not a household name in the province and not a Wynne insider, has nevertheless been a great constituency person and while NDP will give him a good run for his money, will prevail. Who knows, he may even be the next leader. Liberal hold
Date 2018-
NDP leading in Toronto ridings 38% to the tories at 34%...
19/05/2018 BEYCas
Liberal Arthur Potts will have a hard time keeping his seat in the face of the anti-Liberal sentiment that is sweeping the province. He won very narrowly in a climate where most NDP supporters stayed home, but has been an unimpressive MPP since then, barely keeping abreast of local issues. The NDP is running an energetic campaign. The presence of a popular and effective Liberal MP, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, may sway some to vote Liberal, but it won't be enough.
19/05/2018 C. H.
With current poll numbers and the campaign the way it is, it's extremely hard to imagine the NDP losing any OLP seats they were just a few points from winning in 2014 (such as this one).
LISPOP has declared this NDP
19/05/2018 MF
With the NDP pulling ahead of the Liberals, Beaches-East York will most likely end up in the NDP column. Agree with the Lobster that Beaches doesn't have the reliable NDP base that Parkdale-High Park or Danforth have. But a lot of the riding's 'liberally minded' will be voting NDP this time.
18/05/2018 doctorbunsen
This is obviously going NDP and I do not see why there is any doubt.
The PCs won't win it but will take some votes away from the Liberals
There was less than 500 vote split - granted before incumbent Michael Prue had a good reputation and was considered unbeatable, but even if Potts now has gained from being the incumbent, the swings from th eLiberals th ethe NDP are too great to ignore.
18/05/2018 Arm Chair Campaign Manager
This should be an easy NDP pick up. The Liberals won this riding last time only by a strong Liberal win province-wide. They won't be so lucky this time.
5/16/2018 The Lobster
As the Beaches have become more and more upper-middle class, this has moved from the third easiest seat in Toronto for the NDP to grab (after Danforth and the old Trinity--Spadina) to a fairly, if not totally rock solid, Liberal seat. Somewhat analogous to the professionals in the condos in Spadina--Fort York changing that seat. Danforth, Parkdale--High Park, Davenport, and York South--Weston are now all certainly easier grabs for the NDP, and Humber River--Black Creek may be as well. Nate Erskine-Smith's massive win in the last federal election illustrates this, though we'll see how that holds with his current status as a seemingly popular maverick. I'll also add that the Potts signs are outnumbering the NDP signs in the (non-random) parts of the riding I have driven through.
Having said all of that, in the face of a Liberal collapse and the NDP doing about as well as they can do, the NDP will likely get pushed over the top. But I wouldn't completely rule the Liberals out here, even if the NDP forms a strong official opposition and the Liberals fall down to 10-12 seats (think Kevin Lamoureux staving off Rebecca Blaikie in 2011). But if the Liberals are south of 8 seats, this is unlikely to be one of them.
13/05/2018 ungovernable
All these 2014 Liberal-NDP marginals in the 416 should be called for the NDP. The NDP came fairly close to winning this seat in an election where their fortunes declined fairly substantially in the city of Toronto, and they would win it back in the event of even a slight weakening of the Liberal vote. Luckily for the NDP, the Liberals are absolutely hemorrhaging support, staring down the strong possibility of being reduced to third-party status. Even if the Libs claw their way back to second place province wide, they'll still almost certainly lose this seat. Math, people.
12/05/2018 Paul from the Beach
This went Liberal last time because many people were upset with Michael Prue's betrayal of those of us who support pubilicly funded Catholic education. That's not an issue this time.
12/05/2018 CB
North of Danforth has historically been NDP territory (at least up until O'Connor). If signs matter, my count today (North of Danforth) is Liberals have 60%, NDP 30%, and PCs 10%.
The unknown Conservative candidate (from Mississauga?) is far less of a factor than the NDP candidate, who is also fairly unknown. NDP and Liberals have strong riding organizations on the ground, and PCs don't really.
Probably the biggest item most people fail to recognize is the large Bangladeshi community and their strong support for Arthur Potts and the Liberals. Watch Crescent Town.
NDP could have won this if Janet Davis had run. That isn't the case, and just like Prue did for 13 years, Potts will win based on his own brand recognition ... or the fact that candidates need a last name starting with "P" to win ;)
10/05/2018 Christopher L
Regardless of Potts' current local support and the Michael Prue effect on the 2014 results, this has to be a likely NDP pickup on the basis of current polling. Ford Nation has some strength north of the Danforth, based on the mayoral elections, but I think the PCs have got a ceiling here of 20-25%. My current projection:
NDP: low 40s
Libs: mid 30s
PCs: low 20s
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Finally a fresh Toronto poll. Old Toronto, compared to 2014:
Liberals -14
PCs +7
NDP +3.5
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
The NDP are always at least competitive here, both federally and provincially, but in this election it seems pretty obvious that the Liberals are on the ropes, despite their stronger 416-area polling. This time around it's a safe NDP bet.
09/05/2018 CB
Potts has been surprisingly strong in the riding. Three private members bills (almost unheard of), very involved in the community, and has been out knocking on doors since Januay at least that I know of. Potts is very well liked in the community.
NDP candidate is almost unheard of, and the only reason the NDP did well last time was Prue's name recognition. Area has moved more upscale in past 4 years, and signs already up for Potts (surprisingly large number, even in north end). This riding isn't flipping.
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%...this riding will flip
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio, but that will be more than enough for the NDP here.
The Liberal vote is bleeding to the NDP....THis riding will be a NDP gain
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
Latest Forum poll puts the NDP ahead of the PC in Toronto, and well behind the Liberals (Lib:NDP:PC 39:28:27). Seeing that NDP vote will be concentrated into a few ridings, I'm willing to bet that anything that was marginal last time will swing NDP this time. I'll keep watching the polls to see if this trend holds up and reassess if needs be.
25/03/2018 jeff316
Beaches East York has had an NDP candidate for a while - Rima Berns McGown - but she needs Wynne as leader to win this riding, not Horwath. Potts is nothing special as an MPP - no one expected him to win in the Liberal camp last time around - but this is a riding that, in the absence of a strong local candidate, will vote for the leader. And Wynne fits this riding best.
23/03/2018 John K.
Janet Davis would but heads with Andrea Horwath, it's not a shock to me that she isn't running. Davis is very much Toronto elite left (Govt tell you what you should do - left), not on brand with Horwath's revolution. I'm surprised there isn't a candidate yet, though. Marilyn Churley, Matthew Kellway or even Michael Prue are better choices.. not sure if any of them are interested/persuing the nomination. The ONDP polling in the City of Toronto is at 22-24%, which would surely make this a safe pickup.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Sadly, the split here is a killer for Potts, who I like. He would have been a good 're-builder' and clearly the Libs are going to need some. Funny that there is no NDP candidate. Janet Davis, the Last Cold Warrior, could probably win. Or is it to much to ask for her to abandon City Hall for the opposition backbencher at QP.
21/03/2018 Demarcoa
I predict the NDP will take this one. What I don't predict is the NDP gaining a terrible amount of votes, rather enough Liberal votes will shift to PC to give the win to the NDP.
19/03/2018 jeff316
The NDP could have maybe won BEY if they had run Matthew Kellway
17/03/2018 A.S.
Re 'the Annex on the lake': let's remember that even the Annex isn't what it was thanks to gentrification and the red-ward swing of affluent creative class demos (though in practice, the only real third-place zone for the NDP is the former racetrack lands). Prue's 2014 upset really was a shocker--IIRC he had the best ONDP result of all in 2007, and Potts had a bit of a hackish rep--but without a Prue or Janet Davis on hand, it'd now appear like it'd involve more fear and loathing of the Liberals than once-taken-for-granted 'natural advantage' (though that definitely still exists) to return New Democratic supremacy here.
14/02/2018 JC
Janet Davis is taking a pass on the NDP nomination again. This tilts the odd slightly to Arthur Potts favour. With Wynne Liberals largely holding on to their downtown strength (there isn't much else they are holding on to), Potts may end up being a survival in a very small caucus.
30/01/2018 ML
There is some chatter that Janet Davis, the incumbent councillor for the northern half of the riding, will throw her hat in the ring for the NDP. In that event I would give the advantage to the NDP. However, in the absence of a declared NDP candidate, this riding is too close to call.
19/01/2018 ML
Good analysis @MF. The Beaches and local residents are definitely similar to North Toronto. A long-time friend and resident of the Beaches called his area a 'city neighborhood with the sensibility of a suburb.' In fact, there are some polls south of Kingston Road and in the newer developments off Lakeshore that went to the Conservatives in previous provincial and federal elections. A strong PC campaign in this riding would help the NDP by nipping at Liberal votes.
08/01/2018 MF
Beaches-East York was more of a Michael Prue riding than an NDP riding - and even he was a casualty of the 2014 ONDP 'screw Toronto' strategy. The Beaches itself seems to becoming more similar to North Toronto in demographics and lifestyle and less of 'the Annex on the lake.' The NDP probably figures their best bet is to focus on the East York part of the riding with a populist appeal. However the Liberals are also offering bread and butter policies like the $15 minimum wage that will likely appeal to the retail and service working class in Toronto. The NDP can win this - but that depends on what kind of campaign they run in Toronto and whether the Liberals are headed for a small setback or catastrophe.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
I think this is competitive between the NDP and Liberals regardless or who the candidates are, but I am interested to see who the NDP will nominate. Maybe Matthew Kellway or Janet Davis? Mary McMahon is retiring at the end of her term as city councillor, So could that be possible too? If they yet a big name I think this seat will go NEO.
14/12/2017 ML
I'm slightly leaning towards the NDP for this riding but can't fully commit. The Liberals took this riding in 2014 after a surprising win over political veteran Michael Prue. I'm not sure if the NDP can drop lower than they did in 2014 when the fear of a Hudak government and a tone-deaf Horwath campaign pushed many urban progressives towards Wynne. I'm not sure if the 'fear' factor will be as powerful with Patrick Brown's apparent shift to the centre and focus on urban issues. The incumbent Arthur Potts has an impressive local presence despite being a rookie and having a low profile at Queen's Park. Should be an interesting race.
14/12/2017 seasaw
The way things stand now, this one will be a dog fight between the Liberals and the NDP, with a slight edge to the Liberals. We don't know, however, what kind of campaign each party is going to have. If the Liberals are in a winning position, then they'll definitely win this one, if not NDP will regain this seat

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