Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:42:52

Constituency Profile


Ayas, Raymond

El-Masri, Zahia

Joly, Mélanie

Laframboise, Kathy

Lavarenne, Jean-Michel

Parizeau, André


Mélanie Joly

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.72 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mélanie Joly 2602646.80%
Maria Mourani ** 1668430.00%
Nicolas Bourdon 734613.20%
Wiliam Moughrabi 40517.30%
Gilles Mercier 11752.10%
Catherine Gascon-David 2850.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2840.58%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (78.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (21.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Melanie Joly has under performed as a cabinet minister but she should still hold on here.
02/09/19 A.S.
As a New Democrat in 2015, Maria Mourani didn't do too badly--she held the party's 2011 share, and in some ways was probably as much of an electoral folk hero as Ruth-Ellen Brosseau. But that was then, this is now--and even provincially, the Liberals continue to hold all of this territory.
22/06/19 seasaw
A prominent cabinet minister like Melanie Joly, a weak Bloc, the end of Quebec love affair with the NDP, a dead Conservative association in the riding, put them all together and you have a Liberal landslide
03/03/19 Sam
This riding went notionally Liberal in 2011 and so would be likely Liberal anyway, but this is not a bad year for the Liberals in Montreal and it would be unsurprising if Melanie Joly increased her share of the vote.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Melanie Joly maybe an underperforming cabinet minister but only in a really bad election like during the adscam meltdown and 2011 would a riding like this be vulnerable so easy Liberal hold.

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