Election Prediction Project

Thérèse-De Blainville
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:18:37

Constituency Profile


Ayoub, Ramez

Beaudet, Normand

Chabot, Louise

Fournier, Marie Claude

Lamontagne, Alain

Mounanga, Désiré

Piano, Andy

Wolker, Hannah


Ramez Ayoub

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



74.96 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ramez Ayoub 1828132.50%
Alain Marginean 1523827.10%
Alain Giguère ** 1402224.90%
Manuel Puga 700012.40%
Andrew Carkner 13522.40%
Daniel Guindon 3550.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (54.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (45.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
The seat will return to the Bloc fold on Monday. Strong bloc history in this area.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
Time to start moving all these lean-Bloc seats to Bloc predictions. Les Quebecois are famous for political tsunamis, and l'm getting a bad feeling that the small Bloc tide we are seeing is about to morph into a BQ wave. English Canada might have nobody appealing to vote for in this election about nothing, but in Quebec there is another option. Blanchet acquitted himself well in the debates, is the only leader unequivocally on the right side of the popular Bill 21 in Quebec, and given the unappealing options, what seemed like a party dead and buried might just pick up more seats in Quebec than any other party.
04/09/19 A.S.
One of a pair of Liberal toehold seats demonstrating the northward bleed of Laval moderation in what once would have been deemed solid Bloc country (and hence generically targetable by the same)--though to be fair, the key to the pickup (affluent Lorraine and the Fontainebleau golf course environs) was of the sort that had already shown Grit leanings back in the early Duceppe era when Bloc-Lib margins were a little tighter. (In some ways, it's a "gentility demo", not unlike that which stuck with Wynne in Ontario in '18. While the former GM town of Ste-Thérèse is more blue-collar-Bloc-leaning: the 514 equivalent of Ford Nation.)
20/04/19 Sam
One of the few highly vulnerable Liberal ridings in Quebec, so it's too early to call. If the Bloc hold up and do as well as expected it's a potential gain, but if not it should be a Liberal hold. As usual, it depends on where the NDP votes go.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc Québécois, with possible gains in October. But it's too soon to predict a winner. Let's see the next polls and local strategies. TCTC.

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