Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:21

Constituency Profile


Batrhino, Réal

Bernier, Frédérik

Champoux, Martin

Choquette, François

Ebacher, Jessica

Morales, William

Munger, Lucas

Paquet, Steeve


François Choquette

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1600.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

François Choquette ** 1583330.50%
Pierre Côté 1379326.50%
Diane Bourgeois 1186222.80%
Pascale Déry 922117.70%
Émile Coderre 12702.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 R.O.
Scheer made a campaign stop in this riding in the final days to campaign with cpc candidate Jessica Ebacher, not sure it means anything or not . it seems unlikely the riding stays ndp but could flip to the bloc. Its potentially a cpc target but would require better numbers province wide. Trudeau also visited the riding recently as well to support liberal candidate William Morales.
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Riding had a BQ history up to 2011, now with the surge this is a seat they win back.
11/10/19 J.F. Breton
Les sondages locaux se succèdent, tout comme les sondages nationaux, et tous montrent une remontée marquée du Bloc Québécois. C'est notamment le cas dans la circonscription voisine de St-Hyacinthe-Bagot. Or, l'ADN de Drummond est le même, il est donc normal de placer la circonscription dans la colonne des gains pour le Bloc.
09/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Trudeau's impassioned outrage at Bill 21 in the debates will win him votes in many corners of the country but not here. I would say that with the BQ surge, the collapsing NPD vote will most likely accrue to the BQ candidate here. Blanchet's strong campaign performance won't bring the BQ back to the salad days of the sponsorship scandal, but I believe will be strong enough to win back seats like this one.
06/10/19 R.O.
This riding has an ndp incumbent but with the ndp polling low in Quebec it remains to be seen if they can hold these ridings. it had been a Bloc Quebecois riding for some time before it went ndp and the cpc had a couple strong finishes here as well. Liberals did well here in 2015 but typically have not done well in this riding. Which might give us an idea where its headed this year.
05/09/19 A.S.
For an ‘accidental survivor’ of 2015, Choquette's earned surprising respect and visibility (and even a GreenPAC endorsement)--which of course, might not be enough; but there's a whole variety of ways this might go--Bloc on generic QC-heartland-plus-elected-history grounds; Lib on generic provincial-frontrunner-plus-Drummondville-urbanity grounds; and arguably even the westward-advancing front of Quebec-region Conservativism (after all, they *did* get a not-bad 17.7% here last time). At this rate, whomever's the victor might earn an even *lower* share than Choquette in '15--dunno whether that'd be a record two-election benchmark...
06/03/19 Sam
Like the other NDP ridings in Quebec this is vulnerable, and although Francois Choquette has been a strong advocate for the province as a whole this may not be a significant factor, particularly if Bloc Leader Yves Blanchet runs here as is likely; the riding encompasses much of his former Assembly seat of Johnson. It's also possible this follows the trend of other ridings and goes Liberal. With such low vote numbers for the NDP, it's unlikely they can come up the middle.
05/03/19 Neal
I expect the Tories to pick up 7-10 seats in Quebec and this one will be among them.

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