Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:49

Constituency Profile


Barré, Bernard

Bélanger, Jean-François

Huet-Côté, Sabrina

Sansoucy, Brigitte

Savard-Tremblay, Simon-Pierre

Vincelette, René


Brigitte Sansoucy

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1882.70 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brigitte Sansoucy 1557828.70%
René Vincelette 1498027.60%
Michel Filion 1320024.30%
Réjean Léveillé 909816.70%
Lise Durand 12432.30%
Ugo Ménard 2700.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
A former BQ stronghold that has been NDP since 2011, in 2019 I think it'll go back to the BQ.
12/10/19 Sam
Agree with the change to the call for the Bloc Quebecois - before the surge this was a tossup at best for the Liberals, and now it's slipping away from them. This is exactly the sort of area the Bloc would play well too, and their candidate seems to be a good fit, if it were to be a bit closer.
10/10/19 Mizisuga
So,YFB is running in a different riding. But his general popularity and choice to run in a neighboring riding will likely swing this riding towards the Bloc.
09/10/19 J.F. Breton
Lutte très intéressante dans Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot où le Bloc mène sur le candidat libéral. Portrait en accord avec les derniers sondages qui montrent le Bloc en avance chez les francophones. Sondage Mainstreet:
- Bloc Québécois (36%)
- Libéral (31%)
- Conservateur (16%)
- NPD (11%)
- Verts (4%)
- PPC (1%)
Source: https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/le-bloc-en-tete-dans-saint-hyacinthe-bagot-e0bd4dc64c3e3bda9e55c133663a04fd
08/10/19 O'Brien
I have noticed from the 2015 election ridings where the vote is split in Quebec the Bloc usually pulls through (Terrebonne,Mirabel, Pierre Boucher Les Patriotes Verchères, Joliette) to name some and St Hyacinthe Bagot will most likely reflect this and it will be close.
BQ- 30
Liberal- 29
Conservative- 18
NDP- 13
Green- 7
PPC- 3
16/09/19 Marco Ricci
I think the reason the NDP narrowly held onto this seat in 2015 was because of the local popularity of Brigitte Sansoucy. She was the municipal councilor for Saint-Hyacinthe for several terms, and that may have helped her win the seat even though she wasn't the incumbent MP. But because NDP support is down so much this year from 2015, it's probably now a race between the Liberals & BQ. The Liberals are running the same candidate again, René Vincelette, although whether that carries him across the finish line this time is too soon to tell.
04/09/19 A.S.
As it turns out, Blanchet *isn't* running here (despite its carrying the heart of his former provincial riding)--but his afterglow certainly isn't bad for Bloc chances, even if the Libs had pole position in the sub-NDP stakes last time. (And even the Cons arguably overachieved, perhaps surfing on the ghost of Claude Wagner.) But wow, it's like this riding had no business staying NDP (particularly as Sansoucy wasn't even an incumbent)--victory as the ultimate running-on-fumes fluke photofinish. Leaves me wondering if, given trends, 2019 might give us some of the worst shares *ever* for incumbents running for the same party they were elected for. (Of course, party-jumping can make things worse still--the disgraced Orange Crusher Manon Perreault got only 1.17% running for Forces et Démocratie in Montcalm in '15.)
24/07/19 seasaw
At this point, it looks like a Liberal pickup, though the Tories and the Bloc shouldn't be overlooked either. The NDP is not going to be a factor this time around. I'm betting on most of their support migrating to the Liberals, but that could change.
06/04/19 Sam
I agree with @Mizisuga, and I think the Bloc actually have a good chance here. It's a two way race between them and the Liberals.
26/03/19 Mizisuga
Yves-François Blanchet said earlier that he would run in a riding somewhere south of Quebec. This seems like his best option, as BQ came in at a relatively close third in 2015. Still it is not certain the Bloquiste leader can emerge victorious third as NDP support is leaking not only to the Bloc but also to the Liberals, and if the Bloc cannot attract more disaffected NDP supporters than the Liberals, this will be just another Liberal pickup in the province.
02/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Ay ay ay...an NDP incumbent who won the last election with less than 29% of the vote? Given the party's weak leadership and low campaign budget this go-around...I am not liking her chances here. Early money is almost certainly on the Liberals, although way too early to tell whether or not the Bloc can regain any steam or whether Scheer can capitalize on Trudeau's many gaffes. One thing is for certain: I don't think I'd bet on the NDP getting any more than 20% in this riding, and that's probably high. Even still it won't be high enough to win this time.

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