Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Strathcona
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-05-25 23:14:48

Constituency Profile


Cameron, Ian Kael

McPherson, Heather

Olszewski, Eleanor


Linda Duncan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



81.82 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Linda Duncan ** 2444644.00%
Len Thom 1739531.30%
Eleanor Olszewski 1152420.70%
Jacob K. Binnema 12782.30%
Malcolm Stinson 3110.60%
Ryan Bromsgrove 2010.40%
Donovan Eckstrom 1330.20%
Chris Jones 1160.20%
Andrew Schurman 1070.20%
Dougal MacDonald 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3840.77%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.06% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton East
   (1.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

I believe that Edmonton Strathcona will stay in the NDP column. Considering that the provincial NDP are very popular here, the two provincial ridings that make up the majority of this riding went to the NDP with an average of 66% of the vote, it would not be surprising to see some of that support carry over to the federal NDP. In addition, although, the incumbent has resigned, polls still show this riding going to the NDP, and it has belonged to the NDP since 2008. Lastly, the Liberals and Green parties are not very popular in Alberta, so the risk of vote splitting is very minimal, which means that the left wing support will likely coalesce around one party that has the largest chance to defeat the conservatives, the NDP.
28/05/19 seasaw
This isn't an NDP riding, it's a Linda Duncan riding. With Duncan gone, and NDP and Liberals in Alberta, this riding should go Tory
22/05/19 Stephen
Besides Churchill, this will be the only NDP seat between Ontario and the Rockies. Strathcona really is different. No other neighbourhood like it exists in Alberta or Saskatchewan. In Saskatoon (along with many other places), Singh’s unpopularity will hurt him, but that’s much less the case here: this riding is educated, creative class, and relatively diverse ethnically.
This is a stronghold for them. The Tories won’t be able to take it. If the Liberals bleed votes as is very possible, the NDP will only increase its share.
21/05/19 Stevo
Notley's NDP won nearly every seat in Edmonton while losing provincewide. We always say that one cannot extrapolate federal results from provincial, and while that is true, it is important not to go overboard with that rule wheand disregard provincial results entirely. It's hard to envision Edmonton go from granting nearly all its seats to the provincial NDP to granting none to the federal NDP, even given the difference in pipeline policy. So, I think the CPC's aspiration of taking every Alberta seat (like in 2006) will be foiled. This will be the NDP's only seat in Alberta once again, but it's a safe one.
27/04/19 The Jackal
I'm going to be bold and call this the only non-CPC seat in Alberta after October.
22/04/19 Sam
Too early to call. Without Linda Duncan, holding this won't be so easy for the NDP, but this is a progressive district with more natural NDP voters than anywhere else in the province. I wouldn't read much into the provincial results either - this has always been good for the NDP even when the Liberals got better results than them, plus there's usually a boost for party leaders in their ridings.
20/04/19 Craig
The fact that the Alberta NDP largely held Edmonton and won big here, despite being annihilated in the rest of the province, make me think that this could be one of the only seats in either Saskatchewan or Alberta that does not go Conservative. If the federal NDP can recruit Rachel Notley (which won't go well with the socialist/environmentalist wing), Strathcona should easily remain orange.
It's easy to forget that this is a fairly multicultural riding and well educated, with a fairly large 'creative class'. That should at least keep progressives in the ball game, and with no other even remotely competitive seats for the NDP in Alberta, they will put all their eggs here. However, farther from Whyte Avenue, the Conservative vote will likely rise and without Notley on the ballot it might put them over the top like Rahim Jaffer did. Too close to call.
18/04/19 D.I.Y.
After seeing how well Notley did in her provincial Edmonton-Strathcona riding as well as the rest of the Edmonton ridings, going into the 2019 federal election, it looks like the NDP stand a good chance of holding this seat.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
On a road trip, I stayed at the HI in Edmonton Strathcona back in the fall of 2018; most of my fellow hostellers weren't young travelling types; they were out of work boilermakers and roughnecks happy to sit in the cafeteria with a coffee and tell you all about how they were life long NDPers whose lives have been destroyed by NDP & federal Liberal policies related to the oil industry. It's palpable, you can't avoid hearing about it.
Yes, the University is here, and yes it's the artsy, airy-fairy part of town, and no doubt this will remain the beachhead of NDP support in Alberta; the next candidate should still crest 30% of the vote...
...nevertheless...when looking at the electorate as a whole, I think we're headed back to the Rahim Jaffer days where the Conservatives will be able to squeeze this one out by riding the rising tide of extreme dissatisfaction with both the Liberals and NDP, whose incumbent is not running again and whose federal campaign has no money to spend.
02/03/19 Lolitha
Too close to call for now. Linda Duncan had a lot of personal popularity and strategic votes behind her. Will these votes stick with the NDP is the question.

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