|I believe that Edmonton Strathcona will stay in the NDP column. Considering that the provincial NDP are very popular here, the two provincial ridings that make up the majority of this riding went to the NDP with an average of 66% of the vote, it would not be surprising to see some of that support carry over to the federal NDP. In addition, although, the incumbent has resigned, polls still show this riding going to the NDP, and it has belonged to the NDP since 2008. Lastly, the Liberals and Green parties are not very popular in Alberta, so the risk of vote splitting is very minimal, which means that the left wing support will likely coalesce around one party that has the largest chance to defeat the conservatives, the NDP.|
|This isn't an NDP riding, it's a Linda Duncan riding. With Duncan gone, and NDP and Liberals in Alberta, this riding should go Tory|
|Besides Churchill, this will be the only NDP seat between Ontario and the Rockies. Strathcona really is different. No other neighbourhood like it exists in Alberta or Saskatchewan. In Saskatoon (along with many other places), Singhs unpopularity will hurt him, but thats much less the case here: this riding is educated, creative class, and relatively diverse ethnically.|
This is a stronghold for them. The Tories wont be able to take it. If the Liberals bleed votes as is very possible, the NDP will only increase its share.
|Notley's NDP won nearly every seat in Edmonton while losing provincewide. We always say that one cannot extrapolate federal results from provincial, and while that is true, it is important not to go overboard with that rule wheand disregard provincial results entirely. It's hard to envision Edmonton go from granting nearly all its seats to the provincial NDP to granting none to the federal NDP, even given the difference in pipeline policy. So, I think the CPC's aspiration of taking every Alberta seat (like in 2006) will be foiled. This will be the NDP's only seat in Alberta once again, but it's a safe one.|
|I'm going to be bold and call this the only non-CPC seat in Alberta after October.|
|Too early to call. Without Linda Duncan, holding this won't be so easy for the NDP, but this is a progressive district with more natural NDP voters than anywhere else in the province. I wouldn't read much into the provincial results either - this has always been good for the NDP even when the Liberals got better results than them, plus there's usually a boost for party leaders in their ridings.|
|The fact that the Alberta NDP largely held Edmonton and won big here, despite being annihilated in the rest of the province, make me think that this could be one of the only seats in either Saskatchewan or Alberta that does not go Conservative. If the federal NDP can recruit Rachel Notley (which won't go well with the socialist/environmentalist wing), Strathcona should easily remain orange.|
It's easy to forget that this is a fairly multicultural riding and well educated, with a fairly large 'creative class'. That should at least keep progressives in the ball game, and with no other even remotely competitive seats for the NDP in Alberta, they will put all their eggs here. However, farther from Whyte Avenue, the Conservative vote will likely rise and without Notley on the ballot it might put them over the top like Rahim Jaffer did. Too close to call.
|After seeing how well Notley did in her provincial Edmonton-Strathcona riding as well as the rest of the Edmonton ridings, going into the 2019 federal election, it looks like the NDP stand a good chance of holding this seat.|
|On a road trip, I stayed at the HI in Edmonton Strathcona back in the fall of 2018; most of my fellow hostellers weren't young travelling types; they were out of work boilermakers and roughnecks happy to sit in the cafeteria with a coffee and tell you all about how they were life long NDPers whose lives have been destroyed by NDP & federal Liberal policies related to the oil industry. It's palpable, you can't avoid hearing about it. |
Yes, the University is here, and yes it's the artsy, airy-fairy part of town, and no doubt this will remain the beachhead of NDP support in Alberta; the next candidate should still crest 30% of the vote...
...nevertheless...when looking at the electorate as a whole, I think we're headed back to the Rahim Jaffer days where the Conservatives will be able to squeeze this one out by riding the rising tide of extreme dissatisfaction with both the Liberals and NDP, whose incumbent is not running again and whose federal campaign has no money to spend.
|Too close to call for now. Linda Duncan had a lot of personal popularity and strategic votes behind her. Will these votes stick with the NDP is the question.|