|Don't get me wrong....the Greens don't have it locked; there are after all lots of government union folks, left wing academics, etc. who are dyed-in-the-wool NDP...they are absolutely competitive, in fact it's at least 50/50. However, being an open seat, given the provincial Green breakthrough on the Southern part of the Island in 2017, and given how few resources the NDP will have to campaign with this year with a lacklustre leader, everything that is needed to flip this to the Green Party is in place. This is one of those ridings where 'campaigns matter'.|
One thing is for sure; the governing party and official opposition, whoever they turn out to be, will come third and fourth in this riding. Could be the only riding in Canada where that happens.
|Would be funny if the city notorious for dumping raw, untreated sewage directly into the Pacific were to elect a Green MP. Just the kind of dissonant politics we've come to expect in coastal BC. At this point I'd say the Greens likely take Victoria.|
|A Green pick up after Rankin does not stand for re-election at age 69|
|Murray Rankin announced his retirement today. This seat is now winnable for the Greens. Will Elizabeth May get that 2nd seat she's been waiting for?|
|Point of Information: Murray Rankin has announced that he will not seek re-election.|
With all things being equal, and no surprises or star candidates, this riding has a high likelihood of going green.
|Green seat #2 should be Victoria. The NDP are down, and that alone should benefit the strongest (locally) non-Conservative party on the ballot, given the highly educated nature and large government workforce here. The Conservatives definitely won't be a factor here, and the Liberals have taken a hit with the pipeline buyout (which seems to benefit nobody politically). Also there are Green seats here provincially and they will likely join in to help out.|
|I think it's too soon to predict that this riding will 'easily' go Green if NDP MP Murray Rankin retires. In 2015, the Greens spent major resources & time in this riding, and they still finished 10 points behind. Perhaps it will be easier for the Greens to win if they don't have to compete against an incumbent if Rankin retires, but so far we don't know if they can cross the finish line.|
|If Murray Rankin does indeed retire (likely... it is rather unusual for a sitting MP to muse openly about not running again prior to an actual announcement), this riding will easily become the second riding to return a Green MP.|