|Really I think it is TCTC at the moment, but certainly leaning Green. The byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith was telling: both the Liberals and the NDP have lost significant support on Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives are more or less stable. And, with incumbent Murray Rankin not re-offering, the incumbent advantage will not be there. True, the Greens don't have the name recognition this time that Jo-Ann Roberts brought, which is why I am saying it is only leaning Green.|
||Lifelong GV Resident|
|If most of us didn't think Victoria was going to Green before, I think most of us will acknowledge that it probably will now. Importantly, the general public in Victoria will now likely think it will go Green, so there will be a drastically reduced risk of strategic voting here. Going into the last election, there were those that thought NDP candidates might end up being cabinet ministers, or opposition critics at worst. Now, the public will recognize that whether you elect a Green or an NDP you're electing a backbencher either way, so there's nothing to choose from on that score. Heck, they might have similarly sized caucuses when all is said and done (using current polling, to say nothing of the possibility of the Greens getting a bump in the polls from this, the CBC Poll Tracker suggests the Greens on a good night could have as many as 12 seats and that the NDP on a bad night could have as few as 9... so it's at least within the realm of possibility). The recent trend has been steady growth for Greens. BC Greens over the last three provincial elections have gone from 0 to 1 to 3. The New Brunswick Greens have also gone from 0 to 1 to 3. The PEI Greens went from 1 to 2 to 9 (with that bump to 2 also coming in a by-election). The federal Liberals did unusually well in BC in 2015, but with Trudeaumania 2.0 waning many of those votes will be back in play in October, and the the Nanaimo by-election suggests the Greens are well placed to capitalize.|
|With the Green win in the by-election in Nanaimo-Ladysmith tonight, the Greens now have an increased chance of picking up Victoria. Like Nanaimo-Ladysmith, it has no incumbent and the Greens had a stronger result here in 2015 than they did in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.|
|I think this one is going to be a battle Royale between the NDP and the Greens. At the end of the day though, NDP will prevail, it may be very close 3 digit or may even be a 2 digit victory, but NDP will keep this|
|I have previously predicted Green although if you read my original comment I said it's 50/50. I still believe this to be true but wanted to weigh in a friendly counterpoint to the previous post. While I recognize the value of the research in Kyle H's extrapolation of the data pertaining to the three provincial ridings, I must disagree with the conclusion that those results serve as a harbinger to the upcoming federal result. |
Past results do not indicate future success, and while yes, the Weaver vote is high in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, you've conveniently left out that the NDP incumbents in the two other ridings are of extremely high profiles as well, one being the former leader. In fact, I'd probably argue that Carole James' profile is even higher than Weaver's. So you could argue that all three incumbents are running up the numbers in their respective ridings (Fleming the least so, but even still...) the fact that the Greens could muster 38% in the Greater Victoria area - in an election the NDP ultimately (sorta) won - should be keeping New Democrats up at night rather than serve as any comfort.
The Federal NDP rarely does as well as its' provincial counterparts (though the same is true for the Greens) and all indications are that we're about to see the least inspired and certainly least well financed federal NDP campaign since the 2000 election, without an incumbent in this riding to boot.
Don't get me wrong the Dippers are absolutely in the running for this; they certainly could pull it off and given their history in the riding and the GOTV machine they must surely have, they should even have the organizational advantage. Yeah...popular city councillor and all that...but how many times did Judy Higginbotham lose, or in my hometown of North Van Craig Keating or Mike Little...the list goes on and on. Sometimes that popularity translates. Sometimes it doesn't.
The march towards the Green Party on the South Island - federally and provincially, in the last decade or so, cannot be ignored. They smell blood here and will run the kind of underdog campaign that gets people excited. That might be enough; particularly if they can additionally attract the support of some Liberals and Conservatives who know that their own candidates are a lost cause.
It's 50/50....with a notional edge to the Greens.
|I'm going to be the fun contrarian here and lay out why the Greens are not, in fact, favoured to win this, and why it should remain as TCTC (despite the orange leaf next to my submission - I did that for attention).|
Why? Go look at the 2017 results among the three ridings that basically make up the city provincially - Victoria-Swan Lake, Victoria-Beacon Hill, and Oak Bay-Gordon Head. The result between them was 43% NDP to 38% Green - and that was with the benefit of record-low BC Liberal numbers in the ridings, and the 29-point margin of Andrew Weaver in OB-GH.
Rankin's retirement is a problem, yes, but the favoured NDP candidate (Laurel Collins) is a sitting city councillor from Victoria proper, while the Green candidate is an unknown. Victoria powered Rankin's victory in 2015 - the Greens will need a heckuva swing, one larger than current polling averages, to get a win. That's without even taking into account the fact that the CPC are also on an upswing and the Liberals won't have a nutter as a candidate again (probably), and that's where the Greens mostly padded their 2015 result from.
I say TCTC!
||Lifelong GV Resident|
|As others have said, this will be hard fought. But it will be hard fought between the Greens and NDP. The Conservatives/Canadian Alliance/Reform Party have never won here even in their wave years across BC (not even in the year 2000 election when the Canadian Alliance won 79% of the seats in BC were they able to win Victoria). Similarly, if the Liberals weren't able to win Victoria in their wave year of 2015 (when they won more seats in BC than they had in generations) then there's little chance that they'll win here in 2019 with some of the bloom being off the Trudeau rose. So I think we're probably all agreed that this seat will be either NDP or Green when the dust settles. And I give the edge to the Greens because of the general decline in NDP fortunes since 2015, and the rise in Green fortunes in that same time. The CBC Polltracker (as of this writing) shows the federal NDP polling 18% lower in BC support and the federal Greens polling 52% higher in BC vs. the 2015 election. Campaigns matter, but with that history and those numbers, right now it's the Greens' to lose.|
|This election will be close but I believe with the incumbency advantage out of the picture it should be a Green pick-up.|
|Sure, the Greens will need to fight to win this, but they will. The effect of a retirement boosts the Greens more than the other parties, and if their momentum keeps going as expected, they'll take this. Although I wouldn't rule out an NDP hold completely, when you combine the major factors it seems as if a Green gain is the by far the most likely result.|
|No NDP incumbent, Elizabeth May next door and you can be sure the Greens will target this riding as it is probably their best chance for a gain. I visited Victoria in January and got an unsolicited earful about Notley and pipelines so it seems the environment is top of mind ;)|
|I'm seeing an eagerness by some to call this immediately for the Greens and although there is potential for the Greens to *finally* capture this seat they desperately wanted in the past, I'm not certain that this is be a sure thing just yet. The NDP will still remain a strong contender with the nomination of an incumbent city councillor. While the riding will be advantageous to the Greens geographically because it consists most of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, the provincial seat of BC Green leader Andrew Weaver, TCTC is the right call at this point.|
|The Greens are polling at around 10% nationally right now. The NDP has only consistently won this since 2006, with elections since then (except 2015) being bad years for the Liberals. With Rankin gone, I don't see the Greens not winning this, unless their support tapers off or the NDP runs a particularly good candidate.|
|Don't get me wrong....the Greens don't have it locked; there are after all lots of government union folks, left wing academics, etc. who are dyed-in-the-wool NDP...they are absolutely competitive, in fact it's at least 50/50. However, being an open seat, given the provincial Green breakthrough on the Southern part of the Island in 2017, and given how few resources the NDP will have to campaign with this year with a lacklustre leader, everything that is needed to flip this to the Green Party is in place. This is one of those ridings where 'campaigns matter'.|
One thing is for sure; the governing party and official opposition, whoever they turn out to be, will come third and fourth in this riding. Could be the only riding in Canada where that happens.
|Would be funny if the city notorious for dumping raw, untreated sewage directly into the Pacific were to elect a Green MP. Just the kind of dissonant politics we've come to expect in coastal BC. At this point I'd say the Greens likely take Victoria.|
|A Green pick up after Rankin does not stand for re-election at age 69|
|Murray Rankin announced his retirement today. This seat is now winnable for the Greens. Will Elizabeth May get that 2nd seat she's been waiting for?|
|Point of Information: Murray Rankin has announced that he will not seek re-election.|
With all things being equal, and no surprises or star candidates, this riding has a high likelihood of going green.
|Green seat #2 should be Victoria. The NDP are down, and that alone should benefit the strongest (locally) non-Conservative party on the ballot, given the highly educated nature and large government workforce here. The Conservatives definitely won't be a factor here, and the Liberals have taken a hit with the pipeline buyout (which seems to benefit nobody politically). Also there are Green seats here provincially and they will likely join in to help out.|
|I think it's too soon to predict that this riding will 'easily' go Green if NDP MP Murray Rankin retires. In 2015, the Greens spent major resources & time in this riding, and they still finished 10 points behind. Perhaps it will be easier for the Greens to win if they don't have to compete against an incumbent if Rankin retires, but so far we don't know if they can cross the finish line.|
|If Murray Rankin does indeed retire (likely... it is rather unusual for a sitting MP to muse openly about not running again prior to an actual announcement), this riding will easily become the second riding to return a Green MP.|