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Yukon
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-23 14:34:32
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Bagnell, Larry

Lemphers, Justin

Morris, Lenore

Smith, Jonas J.

Zelezny, Joseph J.


Incumbent:

Larry Bagnell

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

35874
33897

17987
15215

474712.68 km²
0.1/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Bagnell 1088753.70%
Ryan Leef ** 492824.30%
Melissa Atkinson 394319.40%
Frank de Jong 5332.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

542233.77%
230814.37%
529032.95%
303718.91%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Yukon
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


01/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
What was interesting in 2015 was how former GPO leader Frank De Jong totally bombed as a Green candidate in a riding where the party got 19% the previous election. Right now, Bagnell seems the sort who could conceivably endure even if the Libs were reduced to 9 seats, Audrey-style--*conceivably*. Though not guaranteed, as 2011 proved...
22/03/19 Islander
24.108.22.75
2011 was a bizarre instance where all candidates on the ballot have since been elected to either provincial or federal office. (Seriously. John Streicker and Kevin Barr have both been elected to the Yukon legislature as Liberal and NDP candidates repectively, with Streicker even defeating Barr in his riding in 2016.) With the NDP and Greens having run apparently electable candidates and with the Liberals being in a meltdown, that was a perfect storm case for the Conservatives to win, as they barely gained anything. That likely isn't going to happen this time, so I'd expect the usual Liberal hold.
18/03/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
Bagnell is a strange guy. But up in the Yukon, he's THEIR strange guy. He should win re-election without any difficulty.
02/03/19 Sam
86.153.36.235
This is definitely the safest of the territories for the Liberals - they only lost it in their 2011 disaster. Given that Larry Bagnell, generally a great fit for the riding, is running again, it's hard to see the Liberals losing given the fact they are doing far better than in 2011.
21/02/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
Yukon is definitely the safest Liberal seat from the 3 northern territories. Even with the 2011 blowout, Larry Bagnell only lost his seat by just over 100 votes. In 2015 he reclaimed it by almost 6,000 votes. Easy Liberal hold here.



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