1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Peter Mancini
Progressive Conservative Party:
Frank Mazzilli
New Democratic Party:
Irene Mathyssen
Green Party:
Heidi Strasser
Natural Law Party:
Wanda Beaver
Freedom Party:
Lloyd Walker

Incumbent (old riding composition):
London Centre (21%):
Marion Boyd
London South (42%):
Bob Wood
Middlesex (21%):
Bruce Smith

Member of Parliament:
Pat O'Brien

Surrounding Ridings:
London North Centre
London West

Population: 97 152
Avg Household Income 45 301
Language (Home)
English 83 925
Portuguese 1 805
Submitted Information
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02/21/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
I think this one will go NDP on the strength of the local candidate Irene Mathyssen. She's a very energetic campaigner, a former MPP (in Middlesex), and did better than most thought she would when she ran in the last federal campaign.
Too Close
03/13/99 OEP Email:
Irene Mathyssen vs. Peter Mancini, but can turn into a three way race if Tory actually nominated someone decent. Irene Mathyssen, a sitting member in 95 and an "associate minister", came in third in riding of Middlesex with only 22% of the votes (8,799, compare with PC-15,684 and Liberal 10,448). Obviously people did not think she is a good MPP. Mancini is not much better. He got the Tony Iano-Joe Cordiano gang to back him and got them to interfere in the nomination. That turned lot of card carrying liberals off. The outcome of this riding will be depended on who the Tory nominated.
03/15/99 A. Email:
Mathyssen was MPP for Middlesex, a rural riding the NDP "accidentally" won in 1990. Now she's running in London-Fanshawe, a significantly more urban riding that's much more NDP-friendly.
03/26/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I'd say that when Irene Mathyssen wound up third in '95, it was less a personal rejection than a rejection of her government--and besides, she wasn't *supposed* to win in the first place. Furthermore, it was that token eastern extremity of urban London, the part now within London-Fanshawe's borders, which delivered Middlesex to Mathyssen; she held an absolute majority there in '90, and even kept her plurality over the Tories and Liberals in '95. So don't scoff at her--besides, within these boundaries, a virtual margin of error separated the NDP from the PCs in '95. It'd be odd, though, to see Mathyssen get in at the expense of Marion Boyd; I'm sure they're aiming for a twofer. All in all, one of the more peculiar too-closers out there.
04/23/99 Email:
Irene Matthysen came third in Middlesex in 1995 -- but if you look at only Middlesex's polling divisions located in the City of London, she came first. This time, she is running in a riding that is entirely in London. It contains the strongest NDP parts of the city -- the east end. Had Marion Boyd run here, there would be no contest, running as an incumbent running for re-election. With no incumbent, it will be a closer race, but Irene will win.
Site Owner's Correction: Polls 64 to 77 and 149 to 180 of the old riding of Middlesex (187 polls in total) were in London. The sum of the result is Mathyssen (NDP) 2693, Reycraft (LIB) 2128, Smith (PC) 3533. Therefore, Irene Mathyssen did NOT win the London part of the old riding.
04/25/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Correction of site owner's correction: Polls 64 to 77 actually fell into the Township of London--an important distinction. While there've been considerable municipal boundary changes that technically push the "London" part of Middlesex in the Tory direction (ironically, more at the expense of the former Westminster than London Township), for the purposes of argument Polls 149-180 remain Middlesex's traditional "London polls". And, except for a few peripheral municipally-annexed scraps, it is *those* critical polls that fall within London-Fanshawe. So Mathyssen still goes into this with the advantage...
05/09/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
This is a tough one to call. As a resident of the old Middlesex riding let me first say that Irene Mathyssen was an abysmal MPP always putting climbing the ministerial ladder at Queen's Park ahead of looking after her constituents. On the other hand Peter Mancini has a reputation as a bomb-thrower and has a knack for turning people off with this rough tactics. Bud Polhill, London city councillor whom Mancini defeated for the nomination would have made a better candidate for the Liberals, but Mancini is also young, energetic, telegenic and well spoken. But as mentioned in earlier posts, this riding contains the most socialist-friendly parts of London. It's tough one to call, if I had to make a decision I would say Mancini, the Liberal, by a hair....but I am just not sure.
05/11/99 Glenn Lane Email: glenn@pcmsite.com
What a terrible shame that Bud Pohil's supporters can't turn their attention to the Majority Candidate and support their party. It really could hurt the Liberal campaign and even Bud himself would have to admit that would be a real shame. Mancini will win the riding by a slim majority with the Conservatives running close behind. The NDP do not figure in this election as the NDP candidate has already botched a chance as a representitive in government. Mancini is a bomb thrower, but these are aimed at the nay sayers that seem to love to try and beat his spirt down. Simply won't happen.
05/12/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
I am revising my prediction and putting this one in the Liberal Column. Two reasons, it now seems apparent to me that Marion Boyd will lose in North-Centre thereby eliminating any possibility of coattails, and the collapse of the NDP in most polls where they are now between 9% and 14% not their usual 18%-20%. Unless Boyd's fortunes take a turn for the better or the NDP start to climb in the polls, I don't see how Irene Mathyssen can win what would have been a close race in the best of circumstances.
05/13/99 Kristin K Email: kristin@golden.net
Remember that a lot of traditional NDP voters turned against the party with anger about Rae Days. They viewed it as anti-union. However, in the wake of the Tories they see that the NDP were responding to public panic over defecits in a way that saved jobs, and gave them valuable time off in return. The alternative to that creative solution is losing good paying permanent jobs, cutting social programs, and increasing user fees. I think a lot of traditional NDP voters will be returning to the NDP after this experience with the Tories. Irene Mathyssen will be in.
05/15/99 London Free Press Email:
Political rumour mills working overtime by Jim Chapman
Prospective voters polled in London-Fanshawe have reportedly indicated a distinct preference for the devil they know. Citing relative unfamiliarity with all the candidates, uncertainty about the Liberal platform and disinterest in the NDP, a significant number of those surveyed in a privately-sponsored, non-partisan poll have indicated they are ready to vote for Mike Harris, even though they aren't all that happy with him. Many observers believed this riding was a two-way fight between the Liberals and the NDP but this poll suggests otherwise.
05/29/99 Brent Lanting Email: lanting@wwdc.com
Frank Mazilli has recently been endorsed by the Ontario Police Association as well. Judging by recent media reports perhaps this riding isn't just a race between NDP and Liberal.
05/30/99 London Free Press Email: mailto:dvanbrenk@lfpress.com
Four London ridings too tight to call by Debora Van Brenk
22 per cent undecided
Irene Mathyssen, NDP (27): Internal party polls reflect similar numbers, said campaign manager Ernie Banfield. "Based on the numbers we have, I think we're all calling the same show." Mathyssen said she will visit doorsteps she hasn't yet seen, particularly co-op and seniors' housing.
Peter Mancini, Liberal (25): The close race "doesn't surprise me. We're working very hard," Mancini said. He said some Liberal support may have drifted away immediately after the leaders' debate but it has rebounded and Mancini believes it's now a two-way Liberal-Tory race. "If you took a poll today, I'm sure those (Insights) results would be quite different."
Frank Mazzilli, Conservative (26): Mazzilli has momentum, campaign manger Jeff Marshall said. Given that many parts of the riding have traditionally been Liberal or NDP, "most people would be even surprised that Frank is even in the race." But the numbers have been moving and Mazzilli will campaign in some east London neighbourhoods that have swung between parties in recent elections.
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I was through here, and I'll revise it to take the Tories into account--and their candidate here was a federal PC "star" in 1997. Mathyssen's sign presence wasn't as conspicuous as I'd expected (at least, nowhere like Boyd in London NC); but then, there was a paucity of signage for all candidates, all around--perhaps the voters are as confused as the predictors? Well, if the Tories win here, they've swept London...
05/31/99 lrs Email:
Three way race makes strategic voting impossible- I expect will be PC- Liberal battle at end with NDp strong third- ironical if PC win in working class seat and lose in middle class seats in London- Liberals must win seat to prevent PC majority
06/01/99 Bwinters Email: briwinters@yahoo.com
As someone who has lived in London, for 26 years, I know the people of London dont wont the higher taxes of the NDP and the Liberals. Irene Matheyson did not have a good reputation for representing her constitutents views at Queen's Park, she was very difficult to get a hold of and her office was never open. The Tory has fought a good campaign and earned the respect of the voters. i see alot more PC signs going up everywhere.
06/01/99 michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
London Fanshaw will go with the same party that takes London North. IMHO it will be the PC in both or the NDP in both. This time it will be close between the PC and the NDP with the PC winning

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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