1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Steve Peters
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bruce Smith MPP
New Democratic Party:
Dave Lapointe
Green Party:
John Fisher
Freedom Party:
Ray Monteith
Corey Janzen

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Elgin (100%):
IND Peter North
London South (4%):
Bob Wood
Middlesex (18%):
Bruce Smith

Member of Parliament:
Gar Knutson

Surrounding Ridings:
London West

Population: 96 665
Avg Household Income 46 867
Language (Home)
English 89 300
German 2 630
Submitted Information
Submit Information here

02/15/99 Marissen Email:
If the Mayor of St. Thomas is running, which I hear he is, he will be a formidable candidate.
Too Close
03/02/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
I heard some interesting news out of this riding. It may be not so cut and dried. Indie Elgin MPP Peter North, while be invisible at Queen's Park, has spent a lot of time in the riding, has a lot of friends in the Tory ranks, and therefore may still garner a substantial amount of support, which leaves this race a bit harder to call.
Too Close
03/11/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
As a Torontonian, I have an anecdote from the 1995 election; and remember, nobody in Toronto seemed to be noticing or caring about this, not even the media pundits. I was driving south from London, taking in the electoral scenery, and upon crossing into Elgin County I started seeing Peter North signs, and thought to myself; Him? Running as an independent? Ha, ha...but before long, I noticed something interesting. An awful lot of those supposedly amusing Peter North signs were clearly *solicited*, i.e. on front lawns, not merely public land, highway right-of-ways, intersections, et al. Something interesting was happening here...was I "scooping" the Toronto media on this? As it turned out, election night proved my suspicions weren't unfounded. This time, I don't know--Peter North's profile is as nil, zip, zero as an Independent can get, and this in the most dramatic legislative term since, I don't know, the days of Elgin's own Mitch Hepburn. As far as most outsiders are concerned, he's that enigma at Queen's Park with the porn star's name. And redistribution means he's running against a PC incumbent...and who knows; the right Liberal candidate might lead to a double-barrelled incumbent defeat. On the other hand, it'd be amusing to see this election produce TWO elected Independents--Peter North and John Sewell. (Some tag team!)
03/28/99 London Free Press Email:
St. Thomas mayor wins Liberal party nomination...By Debora Van Brenk
Elgin-Middlesex-London, a new riding created by redistribution, is expected to be one of the region's most hotly contested seats. The riding encompasses an area currently held by MPP Bruce Smith (PC -- Middlesex) and Peter North (Ind. -- Elgin). Smith will run for re-election, but North hasn't yet said what his intentions are. North, the first independent MPP to be elected in Ontario in more than six decades, said last night he's "very close" to making his decision on whether or not to run. Peters said the riding's rural-urban split requires a candidate understand different needs. "That is going to be one of the real challenges," he said yesterday. He rallied the Liberal troops yesterday by continuing the anti-Conservative theme of his Liberal colleagues and saying his party has to be united to "go after Bruce Smith and take this riding back for the Liberals . . .
04/10/99 London Free Press Email:
North decides not to run again...By John Miner
Elgin MPP Peter North has a barn full of election signs that will be left in the loft for the next Ontario election. Ontario's only independent MPP, the first elected since 1934, is bowing out of politics, for now.
"This is it for this round. I certainly wouldn't discount doing something else with regard to politics," North, 38, said yesterday.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Incumbant Bruce Smith will loose some of his votes, but the NDP and Liberals will split the rest and leave the tories with perhaps 35% to climb up and take it againt. Certain neighborhoods are strong tory say the people I've talked to. Liberals will come second, but it will be close.
04/24/99 Email:
I cannot believe that Peter North is not running again. His old riding takes in 100% of the old riding of Elgin. This election is key for all parties and as it stands now it is almost safe to say that it is anybody's game. It would serve the people of Elgin-Middlesex-London well to have a real alternative to party politics and stay with someone they know. Peter North should really consider returning, I believe it healthy to have some independents at Queen's Park. It makes politics more real, a person representing the people instead of a party leader.
05/09/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
As a resident of the old Middlesex riding, currently represented by Bruce Smith, the Tory candidate here I can attest to his vulnerablility. Although I personally like Bruce and think he's not an arrogant and aloof Tory unlike other local Tory candidates, he virtually disappeared on his during and after the Teacher's strike of 1997 when he was PPS to the Minister of Education. In between elections, visibility and being seen to be out there and involved is everything. Peters, the Liberal is very outgoing and takes a genuine interest in the needs and problems of this constituents. That coupled with his strength in Smith's home base of St. Thomas should swing this one to the Liberals.
05/14/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
The incident this week involving Brucie's campaign luring high-school pupils away from class to cheer at a Tory rally with Pizza and booze should cook Brucie's goose. This one will go Liberal for certain now.
05/16/99 Email:
Poor Bruce Smith. Even though he had nothing to do with it, mark my words Pizzagate will haunt him come June 3rd. It is just one of those things that sticks in the mind of voters. Mmm.. pizza, mmm beer.
05/21/99 David Muscat Email: dmuscat@executivelink.com
Yes Peter North will be missed. He looked after his constituents well.Steve Peters will carry on the tradition of seeing to the local needs. This will not be close at all.
05/24/99 Email:
Pizzagate will not affect Bruce Smith whatsoever. It is not even being discussed anymore. It will re-occur after the election when the pundits analyse the results and review the election headlines. If this were to occur in the final two weeks of the election, than mabye it would spell trouble for Smith.
05/29/99 Brent Lanting Email: lanting@wwdc.com
Steve Peters may have support in St. Thomas, since he has been mayor there, but in the rest of the riding he is not as strong. Not to mention unions are backing NDP candidate Dave LaPointe, which creates an interesting vote split. Bruce also seems to be getting a lot of support and recognition from the central party, and the media.
05/30/99 London Free Press Email: mailto:dvanbrenk@lfpress.com
Four London ridings too tight to call by Debora Van Brenk
23 per cent undecided
Dave LaPointe, NDP (4): The numbers don't reflect how LaPointe's support has surged, campaign manager Tim McCallum said. Although the riding isn't on the NDP's "A" list of winnable ones, LaPointe has a lot of support from ordinary people. "We feel fairly confident it's a two-way race between Steve (Peters) and Dave LaPointe," he said. White Oaks voters are particularly supportive, he said.
Steve Peters, Liberal (38): Liberal campaigners have identified support for Peters as 35 to 45 per cent, said co-campaign manager Lois Jackson . "We've always known it was going to be tight," with Peters support strong in St. Thomas and high Smith recognition in Lambeth. Peters on the home stretch will solidify support in continuous care facilities such as nursing homes.
Bruce Smith, Conservative: (35): "I think everybody has been saying that it's a good race and those numbers show that," campaign manager Dave Southam said. Smith's team is finishing delivering campaign videos and direct mail to undecided voters. "We've done substantial voter research and we have a very good idea of where the undecided voter is." The big push now is to mobilize the election-day team to ensure supporters vote.
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Might as well offer a post-Peter North assessment, and I'll gamble on Liberal, even if Elgin's had more of a post-Hepburn history favouring the Tories, and even if Pizzagate was blown out of proportion. But especially in the wake of North's departure, monitor the NDP result--I suspect there might be slight spillover from the London machine...
05/31/99 lrs Email:
Liberal gain- Liberls strong in St. Thomas due to candidate- NDP vote likely small- anti- harris vote can go Liberal- If Liberals cannot win this seat then certain PC majority- but loss does not mean that it will be Pc minority
06/02/99 John G. Brennan Email: jbrennan@wwdc.com
Bruce Smith's reputation from his former riding will haunt him on election day. Strathroy District Collegiate Institute had its 125th reunion last weekend. Strathroy's MPP is Bruce Smith. Mr. Smith did not attend the ceremonies, although the sitting MP and mayor did take the time. Who represented MPP Bruce Smith? The answer: MPP Beaubien who does not represent Strathroy in Queen's Park. Mr. Beaubien brought greetings from the Premier but many in the audience wondered why Mr. Smith had failed again to attend a function at SDCI and also why Mr. Beaubien turned a non-partisan event into a campaign stop. One Tory was NOT impressed with Mr. Beaubien's faux pas but Mr. Beaubien was out the door before any complaint could be registered. Strathroy is tired of Mr. Smith's extremely low profile. Elgin-Middlesex-London will do well to select a member who will appear at local events when asked.
06/02/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
I do not agree with the statement that Mr. Smith has been an irresponsible MPP in Middlesex. I have met Mr. Smith on numerous occasions in the community at a wide variety of events, and I have found him to be an approachable and well mannered person. I remember when he visited the high school (speaking of it) in some business classes. Of course, in reality I doubt that Elgin-Middlesex-London will be judging Bruce by his charachter (or that of Steve Peters); rather, the fate of E-M-L will be mostly decided by party and leader. I am not as sure on this one as other ridings, but considering the pick-up in province-wide PC momentum, I think Smith may be returned to Queen's Park. Polls show this race as almost dead even, but a vote split is quite possible, especially considering the NDP candidate is the one being endorsed by labour organizations. We'll see tomorrow, but I think Bruce will be back.

Submit Information here
Back to Southwestern Region
Back to Home

Last Updated 3rd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan