1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Pat Hoy MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jack Carrol MPP
New Democratic Party:
Brian Sharp
Green Party:
Greg Zolad

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Chatham-Kent (59.4%):
Jack Carroll
Essex-Kent (45.5%):
Pat Hoy
Essex South (29%):
Bruce Crozier

Member of Parliament:
Jerry Pickard

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 102 125
Avg Household Income 43 178
Language (Home)
English 89 775
Polish 2 145
Submitted Information
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03/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Redistribution favours Pat Hoy in this incumbents' battle. Even in 1995, support for the PCs was timid this far southwest--Jack Carroll holds one of the smallest winning percentages and pluralities of any sitting Tory. Furthermore, only the (ex-)city of Chatham remains from his old riding, and with its urbanity and manufacturing base it's an iffy place for building a PC "favorite son" advantage. And a lot of decisions, like the notorious forced amalgamation of all townships, communities, etc. in Kent County into the (ahem) Municipality of Chatham-Kent, certainly won't go down well with the voters. Besides that, the odours around the Heinz factory seem to hypnotize Leamington voters into voting Liberal red almost every time. A second term for the only remaining Southern Ontario "agrarian Liberal" in the Nixon tradition seems fairly assured--as in a few other incumbent-battle ridings like Hamilton East and Niagara Centre, the sitting Tory running appears destined to come off as just a gratingly partisan annoyance.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Seems that the redistribution is in favour of the Liberal candidate. Given the current polling numbers for government, this riding is marginal but not unwinable.
04/25/99 Patrick Boulos Email: pcboulos@hotmail.com
Jack Carroll (Tory) hasn't done himself any favours during his term in office. I think he will have a difficult time with long Tory supporters. Pat Hoy (Liberal) on the other hand has managed to gain the respect of many. He is very familiar of the needs of the community and appeals more to the average voter. This riding will most likely go Liberal.
05/12/99 Nation Post Email:
Chatham-Kent-Essex is a rural and small-city riding with a population of mostly European descent. (It has the third-highest percentage of German speakers in the province.) The riding isn't particularly affluent, ranking 65th in median household income in the province. That's part of what makes it a bellwether.
"What you've got in a bellwether is a riding where traditionally people seem to vote in their economic self-interest," explains Brian O'Riordan, a senior consultant at G.P. Murray. "These are not prosperous areas of the province, and people see it in their economic self interest to be on the side of the winner. They're out for the government grants, the government jobs. They're more reliant on the governing party to come through and expect their member to deliver."
05/13/99 Patrick Boulos Email: pcboulos@hotmail.com
As the campaign period progresses, it becomes more and more obvious that that Liberals are strong and slated to win in this riding. Jack Carroll (PC) has yet to make his mark in the shortened campaign period. Mike Harris' visit to Chatham witnessed the biggest demonstration yet to take place across the province.
05/12/99 The Chatham Daily News Email:
About 300 protesters greeted Ontario Premier Mike Harris when he made a stop at the campaign headquarters of Chatham-Kent MPP Jack Carroll Tuesday. National media travelling with Harris said the number of protesters at the Chatham stop was by far the most they have seen so far along the campaign trail."
05/16/99 Birkin Culp Email: culpbirkin@hotmail.com
Hoy's campaign materials highlight endorsements and positive comments from a wide variety of community leaders which is very effective in a rural riding. As well, Hoy's sign committee has been busy throughout the riding indicating a strong base of support. Barring a wholesale collapse of Liberal support across the Region, Hoy seems destined to return to Queen's Park.
05/26/99 Stan Sharpe Email:
Don't be surprised if this isn't a very close race. There are a number of solid reasons to expect Hoy (Lib.) to sweep to victory. First of all, previous comments about signs are accurate. Most of the Carroll (P.C.) ones are found in front of businesses, while Hoy's signs easily dominate most residential areas (well over 4 to 1 in many areas). Secondly, Carroll has alienated a number of influential groups in this riding throughout his term, spouting the Tory-line about "special interest groups". Labour, educators, and health care workers are clearly anti-Carroll. Thirdly, the two big issues in the province have not seen improvements in Chatham-Kent (health care and education). The area is desperately short of doctors, and teachers formed a significant number of protestors who greeted Premier Harris in a recent visit. Fourth, Carroll alienated his constituents on many occasions, including a high-profile health care case covered repeatedly by C.B.C. radio, and school closures. Fifth, Hoy is a former farmer, which gives him credibility in this agricultural community. Carroll is an outsider, who unsuccessfully ran for mayor, then operated a car dealership with debatable success. Carroll won his seat with one of the smallest margins of victory in the last election. He has done little during his term to build greater support.
05/29/99 lrs Email:
persons that I know in riding say riding will go Liberal- 1995 results point to Liberal victory since Liberals should at least do slight ly better across province a PC loss here will not forecast a Tory loss provincially- plurality is a better indicator- more than 3,000 votes
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Going through here, I noticed that within the incumbent crossfire, the NDP presence was noticeably absent--and this in a riding where New Democrats could traditionally count on a good cushion of at least 20%. Translation: Hoy's sponged up the strategic support...
05/30/99 Birkin Culp Email: culpbirkin@hotmail.com
There is a major difference in the way the two front-runners are campaigning this election. For the most part, Carroll appears to be meeting with small groups of people while Hoy and his volunteers are going door-to-door in Chatham and the smaller communities in Chatham-Kent Essex. The "Liberal" voting tendencies of this riding are apparent in Hoy's approach, as he is able to rely on local politicians, Federal MP's, and volunteers to sweep through a community and contact as many people as possible before June 3rd. Carroll is meeting with people in planned meetings and conducting a limited telephone canvass. Hoy's approach works because he is simply meeting more people at their door steps and front lawns, getting his message out and locking up more support. In a small city and in towns and villages the personal face to face approach counts for much and its what people remember on election day.

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Last Updated 31st May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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