1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Bruce Crozier MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Pat O'Neil
New Democratic Party:
Merv Richards
Enver Villamizar

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Essex-Kent (54.5%):
Pat Hoy
Essex South (71%):
Bruce Crozier
Windsor-Sandwich (25%):
Sandra Pupatello

Member of Parliament:

Surrounding Ridings:
Windsor-St. Clair
Windsor West
Susan Whelan

Population: 99 263
Avg Household Income 54 905
Language (Home)
English 97 560
French 2 185
Submitted Information
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03/23/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Bucking the trend, the popular ex-Leamington mayor Bruce Crozier did in Essex South what a lot of Lyn McLeod's team was *supposed* to do in '95--he swept to reelection with a huge margin and absolute majority, winning all but one poll. Even if he's lost Leamington through redistribution, an against-the-grain mandate like that certainly does not bespeak vulnerability, although under normal circumstances this would be an NDP target riding (as it was, federally, in 1997).
No way is this a Liberal lock. Pat O'Neil is the warden of Essex county and is running on a strong anti-amalgamation platform. Harris was just here with a crowd of about 650. This will be one of the most interesting races in the province and the tories will likely prevail. Their own internal polling puts them ten points up.
I'm now calling this a PC win. The provincial Liberal campaigh is dying. O'Neil is campaigning all out. The riding is just outside of windsor and the area has been looking for an excuse to elect a tory for along time. Pat is a good excuse and the best candidate the Tories have had in two decades. This is beginning to look like a Tory lock. Tory by 1500 votes.
05/29/99 lrs Email:
PC have best candidate in years but due to history of riding- likely only cut Liberal plurality- a Liberal loss here would be crushing
05/29/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Pat O'Neil is running a very strong campaign in Essex, and seems to have a very good chance at taking this riding.... I think he could win it with few problems, but why is it predicted Liberal? Crozier was strong in his old riding, but this one should at least be Two Way PC<-->Lib.
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I was through here, and the PCs are definitely giving this a run--and more surprisingly, the NDP, which nominated its candidate very late, seems to have been relegated to the sidelines. And once again, this should benefit the Liberals...
05/30/99 Birkin Culp Email: culpbirkin@hotmail.com
I just can't believe that this riding would go anything but Liberal or NDP. Realistically you cannot discount the strong voting tendencies of Essex voters who have almost always voted against the Conservatives. I would be interested in knowing when a Conservative candidate last won Essex, either provincially or federally. Please base your convictions on something more than a "sagging provincial campaign"-that didn't stop Crozier & Hoy last time and I doubt it will stop Crozier this time.

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Last Updated 31th May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan