1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Windsor-St. Clair

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Dwight Duncan MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Mike Rohrer
New Democratic Party:
Wayne Lessard MPP
Green Party:
Darren Brown
Natural Law Party:
Janet Shorten
Ralph Kirchner

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Windsor-Riverside (94%):
Wayne Lessard
Windsor Walkerville (45%):
Dwight Duncan

Member of Parliament:

Surrounding Ridings:
Windsor West

Population: 103 124
Avg Household Income 47 712
Language (Home)
English 88 570
Italian 1 975
Submitted Information
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02/20/99 Andy Lehrer Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
While the CAW may be tepid on the NDP elsewhere MPP Wayne Lessard has strong union backing in Windsor St. Clair. I'd say a slim NDP victory in a tough fought race.
02/21/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
I'm convinced this one will be going NDP. Although I am a New Democrat, I think this is more than partisanship talking. The redistribution was very good to New Democrat Wayne Lessard, gaining some very good NDP polling districts, and few bad ones, and has a very ell-organized campaign team. My prediction - Lessard 46%, Duncan 41%, PC 11%, Green 2.
03/14/99 A. Email:
Lessard only lost Windsor-Walkerville by 300 votes in '95, while Dave Cooke racked up an easy win. Lessard then went on to win the Windsor-Riverside by-election when Cooke resigned. Effectively, this means Lessard has represented 100% of the riding in the recent past. In addition, the NDP only lost the federal riding by 5% in '97 - their second best showing in the province.
03/22/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I hate to rain on others' parade, but it may be a tight one, even if the New Democrats come through in the end. It's true that the redistribution's in the NDP's favour, to say the least; but Lessard's always existed somewhat in Dave Cooke's shadow, whether as his neighbour or as his successor. It's Dwight Duncan, a former leadership candidate, who goes into this with the higher profile (not to mention the higher overall party polls) in a battle of incumbents. I do agree that Duncan should have more reason to be running scared, but be prepared for a spitting fight. And be prepared for a unique factor working here--another election; that is, the federal byelection to replace the late Shaughnessy Cohen. Because the NDP's Joe Comartin came so close last time (and he's running again), we might wind up with a nearly unforeseen double-barrelled NDP victory in Windsor-St. Clair--and a simple Comartin victory will be enough to significantly raise provincial NDP spirits all around. If he does noticeably worse than he did in the general election, however, look to Duncan to reap a few benefits.
03/25/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
A federal by-election has been called for April 12th in this riding. If the NDP wins that put this riding in the NDP column for the provincial election.
04/08/99 CNG Email:
This was the NDP's second best riding in Ontario in the federal election. Also, Lessard has represented all of the riding at one time or another. Expect the NDP to run ads featuring the CPAC video of the Liberal leadership convention. After McGuinty's election, Duncan is clearly heard saying "We're f--ked".
04/13/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Well, the Liberals eeked out a victory in the by-election but with the NDP getting 42% of the vote they have a very good chance at taking the riding provincially... especially as the provincial Tories should do somewhat better than the dismal showing of their right wing counterparts... If so, the Tories will take votes that went to the Liberals in this by-election and the NDP should take the riding. A 42% NDP vote might not have been enough to take this riding federally, this time, but it'll be more than enough to take it provincially.
04/20/99 A. Email:
The NDP's extremely strong showing in the federal by-election (only 91 votes behind a popular Liberal councillor) bodes well for their chances in the provincial election, where they're higher in the polls and where the Tories are likely to do much better than 7% (thus taking votes away from the Liberals).
05/04/99 Kim Parker Email:
All you NDP folks have got to wake up and smell the coffee. A second term government never wins bye elections. That's what the federal Liberals pulled off in this union town, despite the CAW bringing in members from all over Canada. When you understand that, you will understand that Dwight Duncan will win this provincial election in Windsor-St. Clair. He won't have to take on the entire CAW like the federal Liberals had to do. Wayne Lessard has not been much of an MPP while Duncan has really worked hard to serve the community over the last four years. The other thing the NDP have got to remember is their party is dead last in the polls and that isn't going to change. The Liberals are in first place over all and Dwight Ducan will win. Sorry all you New Democrats.
05/06/99 Windsor Star Email:
Vote 99 : Battle of the Incumbents by Brian Cross
He and his NDP colleagues are looking for revenge provincially in Windsor-St. Clair, where the race is a rematch of the 1995 campaign in now-dissolved Windsor-Walkerville between Duncan, Lessard and Rohrer. Lessard lost that election by 306 votes but re-entered the legislature in 1997 after winning the byelection in Dave Cooke's old Windsor-Riverside stronghold.
The race between Lessard -- helped by CAW support that was lacking in 1995 -- and Duncan -- limping from an unsuccessful try for the Liberal leadership in 1997 -- is the one to watch, according to Comartin and Krause. "If the general election goes to the Liberals, if it looks like they're going to win it, Dwight will be swept in with the tide," said Krause. "But if not, if the Tories are winning, it will be a real dogfight."
05/12/99 JIM COOKE Email: jcooke@wilsonwalker.com
The Liberal campaign is not starting any fires down here. The Liberal candidate is not even well liked in his own party. His pathetic performance at the leadership convention("where's Laura?") has turned him into a bit of a running joke here. The NDP will win in a close race.
05/13/99 Q Email:
The NDP always does better provincially than federally this principle holds in every province with the exeption of Newfoundland. That being said this riding was very nearly won by the NDP in the recent federal by-election and came within 5% of winning it in the last general election. Furthermore taking the federal results this riding was NDP's second best seat in Ontario in 1997. Because the ONDP is certainly going to do better than its federal counterparts this riding is an NDP lock.
05/24/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Dwight Duncan may not be liked very much, but he still may have a chance since he is well known. On the other hand this is a big union town, and an NDP win here is entirely possible. We'll have to see just how popular Dwight really is.
05/25/99 A. Email:
Even if the Liberals DO win the election -- a possibility that is looking less and less within the realm of reality every day -- they would still probably lose this riding. Duncan's public spectacle at the Liberal convention was his undoing. Just look at the NDP's near win in the federal by-election. Considering they're running much higher provincially than they did federally, I'd say Windsor-St. Clair belongs to Lessard.
05/27/99 Chuck McPhail Email: w5p@hotmail.com
Historically, Windsor has always been a battleground between the NDP and the Liberals. The Federal Liberals won this very same riding by only 91 votes. This does not bode well for the Provincial Liberals. Any continued NDP rise in the polls will only ensure without doubt, an NDP victory. Even now, I am calling for an NDP win.
05/29/99 lrs Email:
hard seat to call- with NDP rise in polls chance that NDP will win if their vote is definite in coming out to vote- Liberals need this seat to beat Tories in total numbers - a loss here will be a blow
06/01/99 michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
This riding will go NDP due to the CAW being back on side and the sitting MPP won a by-election in 1997,plus the results of the most recent Federal by-election being so close.
06/01/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Now that we're in the final few days of the election campaign, I think I'll have to predict NDP. The entire NDp campaign seems to have picked up steam, and a win for them here seemed likely anyway.
06/02/99 G. Brown Email: georgbrown@excite.com
I was rather surprised to see that this riding was changed to NDP...My sense reading the polls in southwestern ontario was that the NDP was quite low and many voters were coalescing around Liberal candidates. The Liberal incumbent is well funded and supported by key groups in the riding. The riding will definitely be close but my feeling is the Liberal will win this seat.

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Last Updated 3rd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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