1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Caroline Di Cocco
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Boushy MPP
New Democratic Party:
Mark Kotanen
Freedom Party:
Andrew Falby

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Sarnia (100%):
David Boushy
Lambton (37%):
Marcel Beanbien

Member of Parliament:
Roger Galloway

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 92 049
Avg Household Income 49 935
Language (Home)
English 87 380
Submitted Information
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Too Close
02/21/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
A very tight race, as it was in 1995. It is very uncertain race, and Tory David Boushy seems to have a uncertain amount of support, especially in South Sarnia and the rural areas. The Liberals will likely be represented by a rural municiapl politican, Mary Jane Marsh, but haven't won the riding since the 1970's. The New Democrats are running Jail Guard, Mark Kotanen, who has little money, but a lot of energy in his campaign. To close to call.
Too Close
03/17/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
If the local Tories were worried before, they should be sweating now. The big PC Caucus retreat in Sarnia drew lots of protesters and both bad and good press. I wonder if Boushy's chances would have been better if the PC Caucus had just met elsewhere?
Too Close
03/22/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
This may be the only riding in Ontario that was safer for the Tories in the 1987 Grossman debacle (thanks to the personal mandate of popular incumbent Andy Brandt) than it is today. Boushy held 1995's smallest winning percentage--barely over a third of the vote. The new boundaries work to his favour, but not enough to take him out of the danger zone. While the Liberals haven't won here in a while, it hasn't been for lack of trying, especially following Brandt's retirement--it may be better said that the provincial wave cheated the Libs out of a seat in both 1990 (when Sarnia mayor Mike Bradley ran, only to lose to the NDP) and 1995. (Furthermore, Sarnia-Lambtonians have a popular Liberal in Ottawa, Roger "Cable Guy" Gallaway.) Don't count the NDP out, either--they held their own in 1995, considering. Given the dominance of Sarnia with its old-urban, blue collarish tone, and the relative lack of fervour with which Ontarians this far southwest embraced Common Sense in 1995, Boushy smells extremely vulnerable--look to this as a critical opposition target.
Too Close
04/01/99 The Insider Email:
What major protest during the PCs retreat are you talking about? There was about a hundred AT BEST despite unions saying there were thousands. No wonder why the socialist unions/NDP couldn't balance a budget if their life depended on it. Remember Rae saying it was okay to run $10 billion deificits only to find out they were actually 11 and 12 billion deficits.
Site Owner's Correction: According to reports from Sarnia Observer, there were around 1500 protesters.
04/11/99 James "Homer" Grant Email: jgrant@stpats.net
According to "The Insider" there were only a hundred people at the PC Caucas protest. That is false in everyway. I was there, at the front and behind me was one LONG line of people. According to what I saw (and what the Sarnia Observer wrote) there was at least 1500 to 2000 people at the least.
04/11/99 James "Homer" Grant Email: jgrant@stpats.net
I think that Liberal candidate Caroline DiCocco, who is a wonderful person, has the ability to bring out withholding voters from past elections. I see that as giving her an edge over David Boushy. Also, I think that a lot of NDP voters are going to relize that the NDP has no shot in Sarnia-Lambton and jump on with us Liberals.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Sarnia is a Liberal area right now. They're going to carry over what they did federally here. Little question. Tories will be a close second, but not that close.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
The tories will have a rough time keeping this one. a lot of discontent combined with a strong Liberal candidate will put the Liberals in here.
04/26/99 D.Y. Email: dyoung@ebtech.net
Mr. Boushy has done nothing for this riding. He has no original thoughts about the riding's needs and always votes along party lines. He hasn' t said "BOO" and appears to lack knowledge of important issues i.e. health care and education.
04/27/99 R.C. Email: dyoung@ebtech.net
There is no way that David Boushy should be re-elected. He has done nothing for this riding.
04/27/99 J.H. Email: dyoung@ebtech.net
It's time a woman represented this riding. There is no way that David Boushy the Tory MPP knows enough about the issues in this riding to be able to be re-elected. He has alienated almost everyone!
05/04/99 F.C. Email:
This riding needs help! The Tory candidate is incapable of understanding the issues let alone of doing anything to address them. Caroline DiCocco has the ability,the drive and the commitment to represent the constituents of this riding. She will make a difference.
05/12/99 j terry Email: j.terry@sympatico.ca
mr boushy has proven time and again that he cares nothing for the concerns of the citizens of this riding. he is purely a creature of his political party. labour, health care and education have all been sacrificed by mr boushy at the behest of his party's whip. he is so incompetent and incapable that when asked, in writing, or verbally, about a specific issue, he refers it first to the party bosses in the freakin' mega-city or babbles incoherently. he wasn't even in the legislature on the day that health care in sarnia-lambton took a gigantic hit. he whines that he loves teachers, nurses, etc. but then shafts them at every opportunity. it's time for some representation in sarnia-lambton, not party rhetoric or mr boushy's version of newspeak!
05/16/99 James "Homer" Grant Email: jgrant@stpats.net
It is quite evident that Mr. Boushy is getting more then he bargained for. I have took a few rounds of the city and looked at the number of signs per party. Everywhere and everyway I look I see RED and WHITE. I drove along Lakeshore Road (a higher class "Conservative" area) and I only saw 2 more Boushy blues then DiCocco reds. The rest of the city, well....let's just say that the number of Liberal signs up is amazing. I'd say at least 15 to 1 over the Tories and NDP's. The South End of town is nothing but a red sign area (including my own house). If this red storm of signs has any indication of the election people of Sarnia will be waving a very very happy see ya later sign to Boushy. (DiCocco- Liberal, followed by Boushy- PC and Kotanen (close)- NDP--- a fair amount of NDP signs out in which the PC's outnumber 3-1).
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Boushy bashers beware; he's got one factor working in his favour. Traditionally, the Sarnia and Lambton area has been a Family Coalition heartland; but lo and befold, there's no FCP candidate this time, which pushes the notional '95 "united right" total safely past 40%. Doesn't automatically mean Boushy's back, but still...
05/30/99 lrs Email:
should be one of first seats to show swing away from Tories- Harris not campaign in seat based on my memory- a PC loss in this seat does not mean that Tories will not get majority- if Liberals win on close vote- not a good sign

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan