1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Tony Ruprecht MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Eduardo Marcos
New Democratic Party:
Tony Silipo MPP
Green Party:
Paulo Simas
Reform Party:
Ken Kalopsis
Natural Law Party:
Maurice Seguin
Libertarian Party:
Nunizio Venuto
Barbara Seed

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Dovercourt (55%):
Tony Silipo
High Park-Swansea (11%):
Derwyn Shea
Oakwood (24%):
Mike Colle
Parkdale (36%):
Tony Ruprecht

Member of Parliament:
Hon Charles Caccia

Surrounding Ridings:
Parkdale-High Park
St. Paul's
York South-Weston

Population: 101 785
Avg Household Income 41 064
Language (Home)
English 44 595
Portuguese 24 600
Italian 9 905
Submitted Information
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02/20/99 Andy Lehrer Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
The NDP's Silipo owns this riding. Tony Ruprecht has no following outside of his old riding and will finally meet his match.
02/26/99 Email:
This new riding takes in some of the best NDP polls from a number of old provincial ridings. Tony Silipo is now Deputy Leader of the NDP and is well-grounded in area politics. Tony Ruprecht has some support in the Portuguese community, but won't do well outside his Parkdale base.
02/28/99 RC Email: free@interlog.com
Tony Silipo's maintains his strength in this new riding and will be elected despite some curtailment of his past constituency arising out of the imposition of federal ridings. He has solid support judging from contributions to his coffers received and pledged to date.
03/11/99 Email:
Never underestimate the power of Tony Ruprecht. No matter what you say about him, one thing is true - he's one of the most clever politicians and campaigners in politics today. He's been campaigning for at least a year now, if not longer and has a far better shot than you think.
03/12/99 D Cavaco Email:
The Battle of the Tony's will be decided on the streets of Davenport! This is set to be one of the most interesting races with two well-known incumbents facing off. For the past year, both of them have canvassed the riding widely. The end result - a victory for Tony Ruprecht in a tight race. Silipo is well-liked but Ruprecht's sheer tenacity and hard work at the door's will pull him through. Davenport's large Portuguese and Italian communities are resolutely Liberal in nature, composing a huge chunk of the population. Ruprecht has been a MPP since the early 80's and will appeal to voters a tad better than Silipo who lacks in the personality department. Davenport will be one of the meanest races out there because the Grits and the NDP both feel that they have a strong chance of winning. No worries about the PC candidate. Whoever gets the nod will be a no-show. Unless if the candidate is highly recognized and from one of Davenport's main ethnic group's, chances are nil.
03/14/99 A. Email:
Silipo is as much of a fixture in the community as Ruprecht. Silipo was first elected to the *public* school board at the age of 20 and is a former public school board chair. He's managed to make inroads among many ethnic communities that don't traditionally support the NDP. Look for a Silipo victory of at least 2,000 votes here. Ruprecht's just plain washed out.
03/15/99 PF Email:
In 20 years of public service, Tony Silipo has NEVER lost an election. He won't lose this one. The NDP will devote a considerable amount of resources in the riding. That gives Tony S. a leg up on Tony R., who quite frankly, is an also-ran among the Liberal flock at Queen's Park. Bottom-line: The NDP has a greater stake in retaining this riding than the Liberals do. That will help Silipo pull out a victory.
04/03/99 Email:
Two decades as a school trustee, including serving as chair, and two wins as an MPP...Silipo will be re-elected here. He can also count on a lot of NDP workers from other ridings.
04/09/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
For the record, Davenport's notional 1995 figure gives a razor-thin margin to the NDP. Ruprecht had an absolutely spectacular electoral machine in the 80s, but a Peterson cabinet snub and his party's subsequent electoral vicissitudes seems to have left him a dutiful shadow of his former self. Silipo's '96 leadership run cemented his status as the NDP's prime liaison and strategist among the immigrant and multiethnic communities--a plus in what may be the most multicultural riding in Canada, let alone Ontario. Furthermore, Davenport is more truly centred upon Silipo territory. Ruprecht has his own "multicult" rep, but a bit more as a cheerleader than as a crusader (having penned two editions of a guide to Toronto's ethnic communities). If it were an even playing field, Ruprecht appears the doomed one despite his long electoral history--it's hard to think of him running for a seat without a smidgen of Parkdale or Roncesvalles to look after. But of course, the polls so far have given Liberals a big advantage, and Ruprecht's got no shortage of north-of-Bloor elected Lib organizations, municipally and onward, to potentially assist him in terra incognita. So it isn't a done deal yet...
04/24/99 J Email:
Silipo is the class act. He has been endorsed by the Toronto OTF group and his re-election matters more to the NDP than Tony Ruprecht's to the provincial Liberals.
05/15/99 Derek Email: rhino88@interlog.com
This will be close but i think Silipo will win out. The new riding has more of his riding than it does of Ruprecht's. Also, i hear that NDP INCUMBENTS are faring very well despite the province wide polls. Ruprecht is an old-style ultra-rightwing Liberal who is detested by almost as many of his own fellow Liberals as he is by New Democrats. His strongest areas are now in High Park-Parkdale. Furthermore, demographics favour Silipo - more and more trendy Anglos are moving in and since the last election many of Ruprecht's core supporters (ie: Eastern European immigrants over the age of 75) have surely died of old age!
05/19/99 John Mackay Email: jmackay@uts.oise.utoronto.ca
Tony Silipo should not encounter large difficulty in defeating Tony Ruprecht. Ruprecht has minimal support outside his old riding, which is a minority of the new one.
05/31/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
With the recent recovery in NDP support and with the NDP organizers working all out this riding will go NDP
06/01/99 lrs Email:
Liberal surge in Toronto-416 will drag weak Liberal candidate over the top- strategic voting will kill NDP seat here although the Tories not in running here
06/02/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
I think that Silipo should be able to pull off Davenport. He's fairly popular locally, and this may be one of the few places that counts. The region is mostly blue-collar, with a lot of ethnic influence - NDP territory.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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