1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
York Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Monte Kwinter MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Roberto Hansman
New Democratic Party:
Norm Jesin
Natural Law Party:
Angus Hunt

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Downsview (68%):
Annamarie Castrilli
Willowdale (7.5%):
Hon. Charles Harnick
Wilson Heights (67.6%):
Monte Kwinter

Member of Parliament:
Hon. Art Eggleton

Surrounding Ridings:
York South-Weston
York West

Population: 103 889
Avg Household Income 51 183
Language (Home)
English 65 610
Italian 10 610
Russian 4 515
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Andy Lehrer Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
This should be one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. Federally, it remained Liberal even during the party's collapse in 1984 when they won only 40 seats. However, this seat has also been the site of a ferocious tug of war between Liberal MPPs Monte Kwinter and Annamaria Castrilli for the nomination. At the moment, it seems Kwinter has the upperhand in which case Castrilli's followers may well sit on their hands during the election or even go elsewhere. Concersely, if Kwinter loses the nomination it's been rumoured that he might run for the Tories. While this is unlikely it is quite likely the Kwinter's followers will stay at home if he's not the candidate.
03/14/99 Email:
Kwinter has won the nomination. No word on whether Castrilli will accept this gracefully or run a rogue campaign as an independent. If the latter this could cut into Kwinter's majority but even so the riding should stay Liberal.
03/17/99 A. Email:
Kwinter is very popular here. Although the Downsview riding has gone NDP in the past, Wilson Heights never has. He'll only be vulnerable if Castrilli runs an an independent - and even then, I'll still give him a strong edge.
04/16/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
A month after the nomination, and Annamarie Who? It should be a Kwinter stompathon, though one must say so with a lump in the throat; after all, Kwinter went into the last two elections headed for a landslide, and came out with "mere" 10-point margins (over the NDP in 1990, PC in 1995). Now faced with two-ridings-in-one, both NDP and PC see their chances diluted. Given its strong Downsview past, the NDP might be favourably positioned--they would have won this entity in '90--leaving the PCs to settle for rumps like Armour Heights. But only if popular councillor Howard Moscoe can convince the Jewish voters of Wilson Heights that it's all right to go New Democrat. And remember that Moscoe himself couldn't get elected MPP in the 70s and 80s...
05/09/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Castrilli's opportunistic defection to the Tories will dampen if not extinguish any lingering pro-Castrilli sympathies in York Centre and minimise the chance that her supporters will try to hurt the Kwinter campaign.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan