Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Sault Ste. Marie

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Carman Provenzano
Canadian Alliance:
David Rose
Progressive Conservative Party:
Doug Lawson
New Democratic Party:
Bud Wildman
Green Party:
Kathie Brosemer
Canadian Action Party:
Martin Bruce Odber

Incumbent:
Carmen Provenzano

Previous Result:
44.49%
7.94%
19.87%
27.12%

Surrounding Ridings:
Algoma-Manitoulin

Misc:
Population: 81 476
Avg Household Income 41 876
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 KD Email:
Sooites who are used to strong representation in Ottawa (Kelleher, Butland, Irwin) must be wondering what happened to Provenzanno. The riding has not had an NDP MP since Butland who is now mayor but has been loyally orange provincially. If local New Democrats can convince former Algoma MPP Bud Wildman to run it should be a lock for the NDP.
20/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Lest one thinks a Bud Wildman'd be a lock, may I offer the following sobering reminder--Elie Martel, Nickel Belt, 1997.
21/10/00 A. Email:
A sure win for the Bud-man, if he runs. SSM federal contains part of his old provincial constituency, and he was always seen as a strong advocate for the North-Central region.
22/10/00 AL Email: alehrer@sprint.ca
Bud Wildman, the popular former MPP and Cabinet Minister is indeed the NDP candidate in Sault Ste. Marie. Given that Wildman retired from his provincial seat undefeated and that Sault Ste Marie was won by the provincial NDP with 43% of the vote last year, Wildman has an excellent chance of taking this seat federally.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
A Wildman victory can't be taken for granted. But given Provenzanno's general facelessness and BW's years of Provincial experience, well ...SSM has bucked national trends in the past (qv. 1988). I think this will be one to watch.
26/10/00 EP EMAIL:
A NDP gain in this riding is purely wishful thinking for the following reasons:
1. Bud Wildman never represented this riding, not even parts of it.
2. Bud Wildman decided not to seek reelection provincially, either because he feeled he is too old, or that he could not beat Michael Brown in Algoma. No reason to think that now he is not too old or he can beat Provenzano.
3. Provenzano held this seat since 93, and was known in the community before that as a municiple heavyweight. Perahps he is not as well known province wide as Wildman (since he was once a minister) but certainly not faceless in the riding.
4. NDP was 13 points behind the Liberals last time
5. For Pete's sake look at the poll
Editor's Note: Provenzano is elected in 1997
26/10/00 Crocker Jarman Email:
The New Democrats have nominated long-time Algoma MPP Bud Wildman. Mr. Wildman is a formidable political presence. Though he represented the area outside of the city, he has had a high-profile in this media market for some time. As well, like most Northern Ontario cities, their is a NDP machine here that will kick into high gear to elect their man. Don't count Bud out!
30/10/00 other Email:
Sorry EP, but no. True, Bud Wildman never represented any part of this riding. He did represent all the area around this riding for 20 years. He was the most powerful cabinet minister in the region for 5 years, and has a high profile in Sault Ste. Marie. Provenzano has held this seat since 97, not 93 (Ron Irwin held it 93-97). He was not a *municipal* (sp) heavyweight, but a lawyer of indeterminate weight. Sure, he had a high profile, but how many people have positive dealings with lawyers? Provenzano has had no profile since 97 and will be beaten by Bud.
30/10/00 J. Carson Email:
I doubt that the NDP will be able to take this. To be honest, there are not much campaign excitment from either the Liberal or the NDP in the Sault. Neither Bud Wildman nor Carman Provenzano are that colourful of candidates. That's exactly what happened last time and let the liberal took the riding with 44%. Don't think that will change.
30/10/00 Chris Chmelyk Email:7crc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Bud Wildman's name carries A LOT of clout in the region. He WAS the voice of the north in the Ontario Legislature before he retired, and likely the most respected MPP too. He is unbeatable. The NDP will lose Halifax before they lose this one. The Sault Star online, and their panel of young voters seem to think so too (Oct 30)
30/10/00 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
To correct the previous poster, Provenzano has *not* been the MP since 1993 -- Ron Irwin held the riding (and a prominent cabinet post) from '93 to '97. And while Wildman hasn't represented the riding before, he *has* represented many of its constituents -- particularly workers from the Hornpayne (sp?) region who moved to the Sault out of economic necessity. The NDP isn't in good shape nationally, I realize; I also think that they stand a chance of winning here, regardless.
30/10/00 A. Email:
To correct a number of the points in EP's post... 1) Bud Wildman's old riding of Algoma-Manitoulin DID overlap with the new federal riding of SSM. 2) Bud Wildman did not run for re-election in 1995, in order to spend some time with his family (he had just adopted a daughter), not because he couldn't win. 3) Carmen Provenzano was elected in 1997, not 1993. Ron Irwin won in 1993. Provenzano ran unsuccessfully in 1995 provincially, losing to Tony Martin (who continues to hold the seat for the NDP, having been re-elected in '99). This one's going back to Bud, with the full backing of the local MPP and Mayor.
01/11/00 J. Reed Email:jm_reed@hotmail.com
I stand corrected (from my predications on Trinity-Spadina); the NDP will take two seats in Ontario. Bud Wildman, like him or hate him, has powerful sway in this riding.
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Follow-up to my previous posts: Wildman's chances just got a bit dimmer. In the municipal elections, the NDP-affiliated mayor (Steve Butland) was crushed by a Liberal-affiliated challenger. This doesn't put Wildman out of the running, but it effectively nullifies any advantage that he might have had.
19/11/00 Delroy Email:delroyprescott@hotmail.com
Provenzano will hold the Soo. Wildman left provincial politics after the Harris government redistributed/merged his seat of Algoma and Algoma-Manitoulin because he realized that he could not beat Liberal Mike Brown. The defeat of Soo Mayor Butland does not bode well for Wildman. Anybody else wonder, if Wildman was so sure of his poularity why is he not taking on Liberal incumbent Brent St.Denis in his former provincial riding. No doubt, Wildman may be the best hope the NDP had in the Soo but it will fall about 1000-1500 short.
24/11/00 SM Email:alija@canada.com
I've been lightly involved in the Provenzano campaign, and considering the number of lawn signs he has already out, something over 800, and quite a few more hundred left to be delivered, I think he's got this in the bag. The NDP just don't have the power to oust the Liberals in SSM. Provenzano also has the support of most of the Italian and I believe the Croatian communities in Sault Ste. Marie, which make up a significant portion of the city's voting public. the unions may still officially support the NDP, though I'd like to see exactly how many of their members vote for Provenzano, considering he got the Argentinians to buy the local tube plant, creating more jobs, The main opposition aside from the NDP would probably be split between the Alliance and the Greens, the greens are popular because some people feel fed up with the trasitional parties and find themselves agreeing with their policies, a vote for the Alliance is just an anti-government vote considering their is almost no right wing in this city. The only reason some people may choose the Alliance over the NDP for anti-government vote would be because of gun control, not a major issue, but if you're not well informed, and you think of what you've had to do recently that you thought was bothersome, gun control might come up for some people, though not even close to 25% of the city, probably not even 15%. The Liberals will come up first place, no doubt about it, then the NDP, as usual, and the battle for third place should be interesting, either Kathie Brosemer of the Greens, or David Rose of the Alliance, Doug Lawson and the PC's in this riding are a joke, I think I can safely say that the Green party will have an MP in SSM before the Tories do in the future.
25/11/00 Michael Ensley Email:mensley@rocketmail.com
The NDP leader did not go back to the Sault in the last week of the campaign stopping in Windsor instead for a CAW love fest. The campaign is lost and she knows it. It will go Liberal and will not be close at all.
25/11/00 X Email:
Rumour has it that if Wildman wins, the former Ontario cabinet minister would likely become the NDPs new leader.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
Chretien went her on last day- are Liberals worried? of course I cannot understand why Chretien is campaigning in London and Toronto- safe Lib seats- this area not well off economically as S. Ont- but Libs prob hold due to prov vote estimates in polls- if lose hear to NDP - then min government
26/11/00 A.C. Email:andcare@auracom.com
I have just been watching on CBC's Saturday Report their coverage of what I thought was Alexa's visit to the Sault, so Michael Ensley's comments of Nov.25 have me confused.
26/11/00 A. C. Email:wholehan@hotmail.com
Voters in the Sault became edgier after the bilingualism uproar in the early 90s. I think some may abandon blind loyalty to the Liberals and send Mr Chretien a message in the form of Bud Wildman. The Prime Minister obviously thinks it's close enough to make a trip to the riding on the last weekend of the campaign.
26/11/00 DJ Email:
Michael Ensley above says that McDonough didn't visit because the riding is lost, but the other reason might be that the riding is actually won. Look who was there at E-2: Jean Chretien in the Sault, out of all possible Ontario ridings. He wouldn't be there if he wasn't worried about it. His presence there, and his unpopularity, might just seal it for Wildman. And the campaign-end polls showing a secure Liberal lead over the Alliance will allow strategic voters who fear the Alliance to opt for Wildman, who is respected as a decent guy with a strong record in public life.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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