British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Malahat-Juan de Fuca

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Marijuana Party
Green Party
BRADLEY, Stephen
New Democratic Party
HUGHES, Richard
Liberal Party
KERR, Brian J.
Unity Party
MANDER, Julie L. M.
Conservative Party
POWER, Susan
  Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Rick Kasper

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:0.05%
Area (km2):2142
Pop Density:22.02

Surrounding Ridings:

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17/02/01 Steve H Email:
Rick Kasper is personally popular in the riding. He won by a sliver in 1991 but increased his lead substantially in 1996 due to his performance. He's represented the riding for close to a decade and his profile has only increased since he became an independent. He gained points by leaving the NDP and becoming an independent over not countenancing government policy and the fact that he wasn't being allowed to represent his constituents. He has BC Liberals and BC NDPers working on his team, including the BC Liberal candidate who ran against him in 1991! A long-serving MLA, a campaign team that draws from the centre-right and centre-left, successful wooing of the Reform-minded crowd through his stand in favour of representing his constituents, and his personal popularity all add up to a winning combination for Kasper.
19/02/01 CM Email:
Kasper will win. He got a lot of media when he quit the NDP caucus, and will keep most the NDP vote with him.
20/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
Well, Steve H., seems abnormally keen on Kasper. Sorry, Kasper doesn't have the stature or the personal appeal to win as an independent. His "rebellions" against the most unpopular government in the history of Canada were muted, to say the least (how many times did he ACTUALLY vote against a government initiative). More than likely that Kasper will split the NDP vote, and allow the Libs to move up the middle, but this one remains undecided in my opinion.
20/02/01 DM Email:
Rick Kasper is a lock! The NDP are fighting with each other for a nomination that is virtulally worhtless. The election will be a 2 man race between Kasper and the Liberal. The Liberal has been nominated for a year and yet to make any impact locally. Liberal lives in the only gated community in the riding. He apears to have no conenction to the peoplein the riding. Kasper is the riding. Lived in Langford, Shirley, and Sooke. Kasper has been a local while the Liberal appears to be newcomer. No ifs and or buts, the Kasper will be the first independent elected in BC in 40 years.
21/02/01 Steve H. Email:
I disagree with Interested Voter's assertion that all Kasper can do is split the NDP vote. With the 1991 Liberal candidate (who ran against Kasper then) dedicating himself to Kasper's campaign, coupled with Kasper breaking-away from the government, the ingredients are there for Kasper to broaden his already considerable appeal. The NDP vote dropped province-wide from 1991 to 1996 but Kasper's vote went up substantially. How do you explain that any way other than Kasper's personal popularity making the difference? Kasper can deliver most of the NDP vote, the former Liberal candidate will help deliver some Liberal votes, his decision to become an independent so he could escape the party whip and vote the way his constituents want endears him to Reform-minded voters, and general public distate with both the Liberals and the NDP will make Kasper an attractive choice for many mainstream voters. It all adds up to a Kasper win, IMO.
22/02/01 JH Email:
While Rick Kasper is very popular I suspect the race will be three way. The NDP still has a significant popular support and the locals in this riding are not fond of the 'big city' Liberal attitude. Jack Lappin (NDP) if nominated will be if not the oldest then certainly upthere to run, and with his background in union organization and connections there has a better chance then his opponent, Richard Hughes who is well known and generally liked, but only in the northern part of the riding. Rick Kasper just might run up the middle and win a third time.
22/02/01 Bob Email:
The provincial party (NDP), is a spent force. The constituency executive has destroyed the viability of the NDP election capability. Kasper has done journeyman's work in public life for almost 20 years. He's a known and respected quantity, even more so for having quit the NDP. Kasper will win by a significant margin.
23/02/01 Nick Loenen Email:
The last independent to win in a BC general election was James Mowat in Alberni in 1949, and only because he had twice been elected under the war time coalition. It is virtually impossible fro an independent to get electedin modern election campaigns which are almost exclusively focussed on party leaders.
26/02/01 Steve H. Email:
While it's difficult to make an impact for most independents, most independents don't get front-page newspaper coverage or repeat interviews on local radio talk shows! Kasper is clearly in a different league as an independent due to being the incumbent and having served as this riding's MLA for 9.5 years. Most people are voting for the BC Liberals out of a process of elimination rather than enthusiasm for the party or for Campbell, and many will find the prospect of an independent candidate (beholden to neither Campbell nor Dosanjh) extremely appealing.
06/03/01 love elections
Rick Kasper, the outspoken maverick will win on election night, people like his style.
07/03/01 Just a Hunch Email:
This will be a horse race, but I think the Liberals have peeked and I suspect mistakes will be made and support will blead to an alternative like Kasper in this constituency. So I think Kasper will take it narrowly over Kerr. Remember Kasper is not only popular, but he tends to be well organized and Brad Zubyc is well know as a stratagist and organizer with lots of connections. Who do the NDP Party have? They will be suprised federally that riding earned less than 13 percent. I think they'll get less this time as NDP voters vote Kasper.
20/03/01 Observer Email:
I think your correspondents under-estimate Richard Hughes, who has not even begun. If anybody can claw back NDP support, it is Hughes, who must attack Kasper if he is to have any hope of making a decent showing. When the election is officially started, Hughes will come out with both guns blazing and most shots will be fired at Kasper. Certainly Hughes will attack the unfeeling, tax-cutting Liberals but he risks loosing some of his Cobble Hill support if he goes too hard on that route. Hughes will take enough of Kasper's centre-left support to blunt any momentum Kasper may hope to gain from centre-right voters. BC Liberals by a hair.
22/03/01 Tiny Tim Email:
If Kaspar was charasmatic then maybe I would think he stood a chance. But c'mon, this guy is a bit of an over-the-top joke. I dont think he will inspire much loyalty as an individual, and a bunch of his votes will be eaten up by the NDP. ALL of the Liberals that voted BC liberal last time will support them again, plus some big time gains.
22/03/01 kyle
this will be Liberal on election night,and it will be because of the split in the ndp and Kasper vote.
25/03/01 Steve H. Email:
Suggestions that each and every Liberal vote from last time will go to them again are premature. Campbell is quite unpopular in this riding, and that won't help Brian Kerr. While the Liberals did well provincewide in the popular vote in the last election, they didn't do particularly well in this riding with its urban/rural mix. Many people in the riding who did vote Liberal last time have expressed to me that they liked Kasper but couldn't bring themselves to vote NDP, and now that he's repudiated the NDP they are more likely too. Kasper's definitely on people's minds when talk of the election comes up in this riding. As for Kasper's personal popularity, the overall NDP vote declined from 1991 to 1996 provincewide, but Kasper's vote went up between those two elections. How can you explain Kasper doing better in 1996 than in 1991 despite his party's vote declining if Kasper's personal popularity wasn't making the difference?
26/03/01 Taken4Granted Email:
It's interesting how the Liberals expect to get all the anti, NDP votes. We'' there not the only alternative, and they haven't earned the votes. I heard on CFax Radio today that the leader of the BC Conservative Party is running in Malahat and I expect many on the right will support her, especially now that the Liberals are talking like Liberals and projecting massive deficits for the next few years! My god enough already! I don't know the outcome, but the left has choice between the greens, Kasper and the ugly NDP and now the right will have a choice too, between Liberal deficit spenders and true Conservatives. It may elect Kasper, but at least I won't be responsible for the deficit supporting Liberals who will keep BC flushing!
26/03/01 Richard Hughes Email:
Hey Folks, Don't count the results without sizing up the players. This will be a classic NDP-Liberal-Socred scrap with Kasper support falling off as the election kicks in. Sure Kasper has had a lot of press lately. His formula is simple enough, declare himself a maverick and convince the Victoria media that he is a hard working constituency type,smack the NDP and the right wing media will slop it up, for awhile. Problem is the voters know better and they don't vote! Kerr is a true socred style right winger newcomer without roots in the community and without any elected experience.That will be right wing turf. The centre left voters will soon enough realize that they can vote for Hughes knowing that the 3 term Regional District Director has a proven track record increasing his support each election to 78 percent in the last election. This will be one of a number of NDP victories, one of many on the Island. Catcha on the campaign trail!
26/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Rick Kasper will NOT take this riding. What he will do is take a fair chunk of the traditional NDP vote from the past two elections, and help the Liberals win by an even bigger margin than they otherwise would have. It's a very anti-government riding, votes heavily Alliance federally, and the folks out there just want to boot the NDP out of office. Kasper will keep a 20/25% core vote, but he doesn't have the massive name recognition or broad popularity to win the seat as an independent. He has many supporters, but has also made lots of enemies in the community over the years.
02/04/01 M. A. Price
Mathematically, this will be a Liberal win. Let's look at the likely scenario. Rick Kasper is reasonably popular, will win a good chunk of votes in the south end of the riding, and will siphon off quite a bit of the NDP vote. Richard Hughes is very popular in Cobble Hill and will maintain quite a bit of the NDP vote. Brian Kerr and the Liberals will take a big plurality of votes throughout the riding. To me, it looks like NDP votes will more or less split down the middle between Kasper and Hughes. The fact that Kasper has Morino (the former Liberal) working for him guarantees nothing but a left-wing split - enough to give Kerr a victory with about 40 percent of the vote.
05/04/01 Highland Flood
I don't think Kasper can hang on here. It's almost always an uphill battle running as an independent candidate against the party you used to represent (unless you're Gordon Wilson), even if that party is itself doomed. And Kasper's margin of victory last time wasn't that big. Even if he captures most of the previous NDP vote, the Liberal will do better with the combined support of former Reform and PDA voters. Some NDP/Kasper supporters will stay home, and some will vote for the Greens. If I was Rick Kasper (and obviously I'm not, or I wouldn't predict his defeat), I'd have offered to run as the Green candidate. Then I'd have been able to ensure that the non-Liberal vote wasn't split three ways, as it will be.
12/04/01 DMB
The last thing that the NDP want is for Rick Kasper to get re-elected - they have a thing about turn coats etc and will ensure that he doesn't either by staying home on election day and thereby allowing the Liberals to win with a smaller % or by voting for the Liberals and making it a massive win for the Liberals. Green party could take 8 - 10 % of the vote which might actually be more than the NDP takes.
21/04/01 Leon Portelance
I think Kasper has a shot as an independent as he is respected and well-liked, otherwise the riding will go with the Liberal sweep. I don't think the NDP has a hope in this riding, especially with the stunts they pulled during their nomination process. It is truly the Non-Democratic Party. The way they treated Jack Lappin, who sought the nomination against Richard Hughes, was outrageous. First they broke their own constitutional rules by allowing Hughes to seek the nomination when he had not been a party member for the required amount of time and second because they tried to cancel Jack Lappin's nomination and kick him out of the party. Why? Because Jack is an honest, working class fighter who has principles, something sadly lacking in the elite of the current NDP. I think they are afraid of Jack, who happens to be in his eighties and can still kick thier butts. Tommy Douglas would roll over in his grave...
22/04/01 Informed Observer Email:
The numbers just aren't there for Kasper. As popular as he has been, there just aren't enough votes in the centre/left part of the spectrum for him to overcome the generalized desire on the part of the voting public to make a massive change. Hughes will recover enough of the long term NDP vote to snuff out Kasper's chances. True NDPers are not happy with Kasper. Its a little bit like a fellow quitting his union, and then asking his fellow workers to elect him as shop steward. How far do you think he would get with the employer, or the union?
24/04/01 Al S. Email:
BC Liberal candidate Brian Kerr will win this riding. Rick Kasper, the incumbent, although once popular, is now held in contempt by riding voters for his association with the NDP. Kasper, although an Independent, has for most of the last decade been an NDP MLA, and supported every deficit budget brought in by his former party. But what really sticks in voters craws in Malahat-Juan de Fuca is the fact that he personally introduced the NDP motion in the Legislature to kill a legislative inquiry into the infamous fast ferry projet, which costs BC taxpayers nearly half a billion dollars for three boats that leak, don't run, and are now out of service. Further, communities throughout the riding believe Kasper has forsaken them with respect to land use and governance issues, to the extent they feel their fate has been taken out of their hands and placed in the hands of Victoria bureaucrats. The overriding feeling in Malahat-Juan de Fuca is that Kasper, as an NDP turned independent, is running from government; and that Brian Kerr, as a member of the party that appears destined to win, is running for government.
26/04/01 Mark R. Email:
The NDP vote will be split, giving a heavy chunk to Rick Casper. This will ultimately however play in the hands of Liberal candidate Kerr, who should come out of it with a win. The only wildcard lays in Rick Caspar's hands. If he is able to garner enough "soft" Liberal support, he may pull off an upset. Just a funny afterthought.....Rick Caspar as the only Opposition MLA in the Legislature. Would he be "Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition"....?
01/05/01 A.L. Email:/TD>
I think Brian Kerr, B.C. Liberals will win easily. Rick Kasper has angered so many people using their money to pay for his ads and also by quoting them out of context so it appears they support him. All of the long time NDP supporters are still NDP and have the huge signs in their yards to prove it. Kasper and Hughes will split the remaining NDP vote but the majority will go to Brian Kerr.
04/05/01 JJ Email:
I think it will be a Liberal victory. Rick Kasper has some popularity in one part of the riding but his recent actions of using quotes from prominant media personnel and local politicians out of context and without permission (under a headline which read "Committed to Kasper") has a lot of people questioning his ethics. Rick is a media hound and is only seen in many parts of his riding if their is a camera present. He will split some of the NDP vote away from Hughes but Hughes is stronger than Rick anticipates. Brian Kerr will represent this riding.
08/05/01 BIJ Email:
I predict a Liberal victory. After last night's debate where it appeared Richard Hughes played into Rick Kasper's hand and attacked the Liberals in a way too loud voice, the vote will split but I think the Liberals will finish ahead. Kasper played the middle and it appears he hopes to split the Liberal/NDP vote enough that he can slip in. I though Richard Hughes would read the situation better but the concensus among the after debate crowd was that he fell for Rick Kasper's trap and resorted to attack rather than a positive platform. His act of distancing himself from the NDP and alluding to himself as a maverick and claiming to have already strayed from party lines did not win favor with some NDP.Brian Kerr acted in a civilized manner as did the Conservative, Unity and Green party candidates. Questions were answered by these candidates and issues were addressed without attack. If Richard Hughes is a maverick and Rick Kasper is a rebel, do we have two independent candiates or two NDP candiates? Kerr's assertion that he will be working for the riding from within the government hit home.
11/05/01 Informed Observer Email:
As the NDP candidate continues to aggressively go after the incumbent to clearly establish himself as the real "maverick", the Green candidate eats away at the soft underbelly of both Kasper and the NDP. As the circumstances develop I can't see why the hosts of this site continue to mark it as "too close to call". The hosts must be friends of the incumbent. Either that or they are not tending the site. This one moved into the Liberal win side just as soon as it was confirmed that there was an NDPer, a Green and Kasper going after the same vote.
14/05/01 A. Email:
Kasper may have some personal popularity in the riding, but the rising NDP numbers on the South Island will probably throw this one over to the Liberals.

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Last Updated 14 May 2001
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