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St.John's North

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:45 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:46 AM 6/20/2004

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Norman Doyle
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Walter Noel
Janine Piller
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Scott Vokey

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
St. John's East (100.0%)
Norman Doyle

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,752 51.26%
11,282 32.58%
4,391 12.68%
913 2.64%
290 0.84%

St. John's East
(170/224 polls, 60657/76804 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 murph
Email: [hidden]
Both the Liberal Candidate (Walter Noel) and the Conservative Candidate (Norm Doyle) are well respected and liked. Mr. Noel is known as an outspoken, stright shooter and an activist member/minister while he was a provincial member while Mr. Doyle is considered an awh-shucks nice guy. The Lib's have seem to have made a clearer statement with respect to offshore oil revenues than the Con's. Mr. Doyle also has to deal with the displeasure people are showing towards the provincial PC Williams government and the general fear that people have of Stephen Harper. Mr. Harper is not at all liked, and it is highly doubtful that people will forget the contempt he showed for Newfoundlanders when he said we have a "culture of defeat". I think the advantage here will be to the Liberals and Walter Noel.
15/06/04 DGB
Email: [hidden]
Before the last Federal Election, Newfoundland and Labrador held a Referendum on Education Reform. The constituents of Norm Doyle's riding voted 72% in favour of a Constituional Amendment and Mr. Doyle, on my doorstep, promised to represent his constituents on issues like this yet, in the House, when asked to vote, he voted NO. When questioned on his inconsistency, he sighted religious conviction as his reason for voting against the clear direction given to him by the people of his district. There is no better way to give direction to any politician than through a Referendum. Mr. Doyle had no right to permit his personal religious beliefs to influence the way he votes on any issue under circumstances like this. His obligation is solely to represent his constiuents, regardless of his personal beliefs. His credibility is now non-existent.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
Norm Doyle should win reelection here; it's a relatively affluent riding by Newfoundland standards, and the entire riding was part of Doyle's old seat. Combine that with the Conservative history, a Conservative national trend and the fact that the Liberal nominee is someone who lost his provincial seat when Danny Williams' government came in and I think it leads to a Conservative victory.
03/06/04 JR
Email: [hidden]
While the Tories continue to rise nationally, a CRA-Halifax poll released today put the provincial Tories and Liberals neck-and-neck, a huge drop in popularity for the Wiliams government since the October 2003 election. This should concern the incumbents in both St. John's North and South, given that people are unlikely to make much distinction between the two (recall that Newfoundland was the only province to "buck" Trudeaumania in 1968, largely an anti-Smallwood vote, electing 6 out of 7 seats as Tories). Given that CRA polls are not weighted regionally, most of their respondents are from the St. John's area, so a 11% drop in support for the provincial Tory government represents a larger drop within St. John's itself. Additionally, Crosbie -- momentarily surging Tory support across the entire Atlantic region -- deciding not to run takes some of the winds out of Harper's sails in the region. Harper's recent visit -- probably to be his only one -- to St. John's recently was completely overshadowed by the Crosbie story, leaving incumbent Norm Doyle to whistle in the wind. The NDP is not a factor in this race; it will largely be fought door to door.
28/05/04 Mike White
Email: [hidden]
Another safe Tory seat. Norm Doyle faces his toughest competition since defeating Bonnie Hickey in 1997 but that won't be enough to help the Liberals. Economically this is the most prosperous part of the province so there is little local discontent that could trip up an incumbent.
19/05/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: [hidden]
In terms of its electoral history, the region of St John's North is probably an even safer Conservative seat than St. John's South. It consists mainly of the old St. John's East seat -- the only part of the island that was consistenly Conservative even in the days of Smallwood when Tom Hickey, Ank Murphy and Gerald Ottenheimer were the sole Conservative prov. members. Federally, this was the old riding of Gordon Higgins, Jim McGrath, and Ross Reid. From the townie Harbour on up to Cape St. Francis, Peter Miller didn't do much with it in 2000. I have met precious few tories who see any substantive difference between "PC votes" and "Conservative votes." It's a straw man. 99% of the organizers have carried over, the pro-merger results in NFLD were overwhelmingly in favour of it, the premier has endorsed the party, the MHAs are behind the party. For better or for worse agree or disagree with them, the Conservative Party of Canada is the same people and the same ideas as before. And Norm Doyle has been seen in papers calling even popular federal Liberals such as John Efford ot task for the equalization issue -- this is a biggie. Graphs in the Royal Commission report on NFLD's place in Canada show the feds under Martin's plan will claw back billions (roughly 8 bil) on revenues form just 3 offshore oil projects... that works out on average to 444 mil per year for the next 18 years. Harper and Doyle has promised in wiritng to end the clawback by taking non-renewables out of the equalization formula. Martin and the Liberals refuse to do this. The strike, caused by provincial financial toruble, will only compound St. John's anger with federal Liberals for refusing the province on a motherhood issue - an issue over which NFLD federal Liberals such as Efford have been forced to go back on their words...
also, here is the provincial district 2003 votes roughly superimposed on the federal riding of St. John's North works out to about 65% Conservative, 23% Liberal and about 12% NDP. Those numbers aren't far off the 2000 federal result... the Liberals can't expect the same boosts in Newfoundland or anywherein Eastern Canada they had in 2000... they aren't running against 2 conservative parties. They aren't running against Stockwell Day, and they are running against some Conservative incumbants who have been able to remain far more consistent in their message for fisheries and offshore reforms than their federal Liberal counterparts. I think the NDP will see a slight improvement over their 2000 federal numbers (strike+Layton etc...)... but not much of one given past NDP association with Animal rights orgs that heavily criticize the province...
If Labrador is the saftes region for the federal Liberals, St. John's is the safest region for the Conservatives in the province.
03/05/04 Mike D
This is a very emotional time in St. John's with the Danny Williams PC government and the unions staring each other down. This PR war will certainly spill over into the federal contest. If Williams gets in trouble watch Townie voters turn on the Conservatives so fast your head will spin. The Conservative incumbent is not strong enough to resist such momentum if it happens. The Liberal is stronger in the suburban parts of the seat, and I expect to see an NDP surge in its traditional downtown areas. Noel has been around forever and a day, for good and bad, so he will certainly be a strong challenger. The NDPer, Piller, is new to politics but has a good combination of business and environmental credentials that could appeal to the middleclass voter - she will certainly improve the NDP vote, possibly into contention. This is the seat to watch in Newfoundland and Labrador.
19/04/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
The Liberals just nominated pink-slipped Grimes cabinet minister Walter Noel in this seat, who was defeated in a landslide in the Williams sweep. Maybe Noel losing was a fluke, but maybe not. But something tells me Doyle's going to be safe.
20/03/04 JR
Email: [hidden]
This seat is one that will depend largely on the fortunes of both the Liberal and Conservative parties. The incumbent, Norm Doyle, has been a rather invisible Member of Parliament, but holds significant sway in parts of the riding (though not to the extent as in parts of the riding that are now part of Avalon) due to his numerous personal donations to community groups, under the guise of "not collecting a provincial pension" while in federal office (a shameful attempt to buy votes, but one that has worked).
A huge public sector strike expected in Newfoundland, however, will ensure that he can avail of no support whatever, and only harm, from provincially-organized Progressive Conservatives. A strong Liberal candidate could easily topple Doyle, especially one with a strong track record in the area, and in defending Newfoundland's interest on the federal scene.
Doyle has nothing to point to as a "legacy" from his time in Parliament, except taking credit for federal spending in his riding, over which he had no control. Unlike his colleage to the south, Mr Hearn, he has not distinguished himself in the nation's capital.
18/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Still assuming the Conservative vote does not collapse, it seems to be that both St.John's ridings will re-elected their MP's
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Possibly the weakest link in the Conservative chain in Newfoundland, but still an effective MP. Problem is he was elected under the PC banner, not the Conservative banner and some elements of the Canadian Alliance part of the Conservative part could mess things up. Despite this, the riding is small c conservative and the various Liberal fiascos are going to help the Conservatives keep this seat.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
Harper has targeted Nefoundland and Labrador even in his days as Alliance leader. He has received high-profile support from the Williams cabinet and likely will do much better here than elsewhere in Atlantic Canada. I don't expect his leadership to hurt Tory fortunes too badly in NL, especially with the margin of victory the PCs had in this riding in 2000.
17/03/04 J Hickman
Email: [hidden]
In 2000, when the PC's were having a poor election nationally and when the Liberal candidate was the Deputy Mayor of St John's (who received more votes for his position than the Mayor did in his own race), Norm Doyle still cleaned up. I think its fair to say that Mr Doyle won this seat based on his own popularity as much as the PC Party's.
In addition to Mr Doyle's own popularity, this is a riding that the former PC's consistently held, save for the odd by-election and in cases where there was a complete wipe-out at the national level, such as '93.
Assuming that Mr Doyle is the candidate this time 'round, I expect that he will win again, barring a complete & utter collapse of the CPC on a national level.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
The Tories did very well here in 2000, but those were PC votes, not Conservative votes. Norman Doyle will have a hard time holding this seat, and he very likely cannot do it. Still too close to call. It will depend on who runs for both the Liberals and the NDP.

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