Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:34 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:55 PM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
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John Edwards
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Mark Eyking
B. Chris Gallant
Howie MacDonald
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Chris Milburn
Parti Marijuana Party/Parti Marijuana:
Cathy Thériault

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bras d'Or-Cape Breton (3.6%)
Rodger Cuzner
Sydney-Victoria (96.4%)
Hon. Mark Eyking

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,698 49.99%
14,267 36.21%
3,934 9.98%
1,501 3.81%
0 0.00%

Bras d'Or-Cape Breton
(11/188 polls, 2221/55464 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(187/188 polls, 59797/59797 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Cape Breton Pounder
Email: georgehutchings@hotmail.com
This will be a close on but Liberals should win by 500-1000, not the 4000 they had before!
20/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
It's getting down to the wire, and a winner must be picked. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a repeat of 97, in this riding at least. NDP shocker.
15/06/04 Paul Capstick
Email: capstickp@hotmail.com
Liberal- Mark Eyking a farmer is avery likeable fellow.
NDP- John Hugh Edwards who works for St FX University here in the industrial area is a very capable well thoguht out man. He is a great alternative choice if the electorate isn't pleased with the job that Mark Eyking is doing.
NDP had nearly 14,000 votes in the last election.
The liberals has 18,000 votes in the last election.
Aliance has 1600 botes
PC-s had 3600
I think the NDP will win this riding. Eyking to the Senate.
12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Recent polls are showing the NDP up around 7 points from the last election. If true, this is one riding that they may be able to pick up.
10/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
The NDP candidate is named John Hugh Edwards, and from the looks of his website-bio he is not "just a former party worker". He has a strong record of community involvement and his experience in social and economic development would serve him well in parliament.
10/06/04 John Smith
Eyking will win this riding for fun. No competition from the NDP! John Who or John Hugh
03/06/04 Christopher
Email: chrisbean@hotmail.com
This one's going Liberal...period. The NDP nominated a last minute canidate who is from what I hear...very weak, just a former party worker. Liberal hold...unless the wheels really start falling of this campaign
25/05/04 sag
Email: [hidden]
First: Eyking is not a liberal. He, like the Prime Minister, is a right of centre Tory masquarading as Liberal. It would be quite easy to suggest that he neither has the capacity or understanding to articulate what it means to be a liberal.
Second: Eyking,lets remember, was one of the 30 or so "pretend" Liberals who voted twice against former Prime Minister on key government policy. This dispite the conventional wisdom that saw Eyking win his seat in 2000 because the very Prime Minister Chretien he stabbed in the back, visited the riding twice, once prior to the election call to announce call center jobs (Mancini was still the MP) and once more during the election. There's loyalty!
Third: I can think of no one else who cares as little about people than Eyking, although he is good at pretending.
Fourth: He will no doubt win the election again, whether or not he deserves too, well, I dont think so.
25/05/04 EA MacNeil
Email: [hidden]
This seat will probably go Liberal once again simply because the brand "Liberal" still has currency in Cape Breton. Nothwithstanding some of the criticisms against Eyking and whether or not he understands what he is doing, he will nonetheless have a solid base because people will vote Liberal no matter what. Eyking is also comes accross like a down home "one of us" kinda of person, although he is personally very wealthy and probably doesnt really understand the plight of ordinary people in a community that is plagued with high unemployment with an average income of just $18,000.
There is no question though that had the NDP ran a high profile candidate, the race might have been tight. Like it or not, Eyking is leading at this point, thigs could change though, right?
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
While polls are showing radically different numbers here, the Liberal and NDP numbers remain somewhat constant, at least in relation to each other, and those numbers show this election will look like last election in the east. The NDP, which got 17% last time, is at 18% in the most recent poll I can find. Despite the close finish last time in this riding, the NDP just does not have the juice to win. They will finish second, no doubt, but not first. This riding goes back into the Liberal column for me.
12/05/04 Jason
Email: [hidden]
The lack of political know how demonstrated by Mark Eyking during his reign in Sydney-Victoria has served to enlighten the voting population. The departure of NDP MP Peter Mancini came about as a result of a desire to be on the government side of the house, it was soon discovered that the only real difference with backbenchers on the government side as opposed to opposition members on the opposition benches is that the opposition members can criticize the policies of the government while still ensuring the riding gets equitable treatment from the respective economic development programs, etc. People will not fall for that trick again, seeing as it looks like another Liberal majority, slim though it may be, this is a riding that will return to the NDP, the only alternative in Sydney-Victoria
07/05/04 Jack
Email: [hidden]
With the level of competency (or perhaps incompetency!) of the incumbent here, combined with the continued strength of the NDP in this riding, I feel that Sydney--Victoria will be swinging back to the NDP this time. In the past provincial election, the NDP picked up an additional seat within Sydney--Victoria, demonstrating a growing support base for the party. Both of the Liberals in Cape Breton elected in 2000 were elected based on the fact that Jean Chretien told Cape Bretoners that if they wanted the "goodies" from Ottawa, these are the people to elect. We did what he said, and received little to no goodies. All we got out of this deal were two inept Liberal MPs, who are silent in Ottawa, and simply pass out cheques in photo ops on behalf of ECBC (Enterprise Cape Breton Corporation), the patronage and political profile factory for the Liberals in Cape Breton.
This one's going NDP.
06/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Although the Liberals strongest support in Nova Scotia *is* usually to be found in Cape Breton, the area that the Grits (normally) dominate is *rural* Cape Breton (ie: Cape Breton-Canso) *not* Industrial Cape Breton... (ie: Sydney-Victoria).
Sydney-Victoria *does* contain a rural area (Victoria) but it also has most of the CBRM.
In the 2003 provincial election, the NSLibs did *not* do very well in Industrial Cape Breton *at all*... they failed to regain Cape Breton North from the PC's and lost Cape Breton Nova to the Dippers.
I'd guess that the NDP will poll well in the old coal and/or steel towns (ie: New Waterford, where due to the chronic lack of jobs a lot of people go out to Alberta for about six months to find badly paid jobs in the construction industry. Healthcare is also a big issue... and the general feeling is that the Grits don't care and the Reformatories (who won't win back their deposit) want to privatise Health care... meanwhile Whitney Pier has been losing jobs in all sectors... they've even been losing service sector jobs recently...) while Eyking (who's from a farming background and is seen by a lot of people in the old coal towns as unsympathetic to their needs. His blunders over the Tar Ponds have not helped) will poll strongly in Victoria...
Could be close... unless the Dippers pick a strong local candidate.
05/05/04 BriJon81
Email: brianappel@canada.com
It doesn't really matter who the NDP candidate is here, Cape Breton is pureblood NDP territory and this is going to be an easy NDP pick-up in this election.
03/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
The redistributed riding had a 14% Liberal margin over the NDP. In Atlantic Canada overall, the Liberal vote in 2000 was 24 points ahead of the NDP. Only one of the recent polls has shown that margin any lower than 24 points, and the most recent polls have that margin much, much higher: 45 points separate the Lib and NDP in Atlantic according to Environics.
Perhaps if the NDP "surge" -- such as it is, it's mainly concentrated in the Prairies and BC -- were to strike Atlantic Canada like it did in 1997, yes, this would be one to watch. But with Liberals in Atlantic Canada with a margin of anywhere from 20 to 45 points over the NDP, no way.
Liberal hold.
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
I disagree with the post below. Looking at last election's results, I wonder if the author really believes that 37% of Cape Bretoners were born NDP. The general upswing in NDP popularity puts this one in my NDP column.
29/03/04 Medman
Email: [hidden]
OK, here’s the scoop. Scandals and accusations of corruption do not sway Cape Bretoners. Many believe that most politicians are crooked and will cite several examples from all parties to back up their point.(and their facts are accurate) Therefore, you need something bigger than misappropriated funds to sway this constituency. Given that this riding hasn’t had a serious conservative contender for three elections and that they are not likely to find one soon, the only variable here is if people get sick and tired of the "same old- same old" and vote NDP. Protest votes do happen here but the main consideration for voting in this riding is biology. People are born into a party here the way they are born into a religious denomination. The issues don’t matter. Like one man said to me on the campaign trail in 1997, "I like your candidate and your party says everything I believe in but I can’t vote for your man because I’m a Liberal." Surprisingly, the locals complain ! about the toxic "Tar Ponds", the poor level of health care in the area and numerous other perpetual problems but persistently keep voting in the same party. This will be a Liberal seat until the current generation dies off. I’m guessing maybe two more elections after this one.
24/03/04 Leo Lehman
Email: t_j_lehman@canada.com
Cape Breton is where the Liberals hold their biggest base of support in Atlantic Canada. This will almost certainly go to the Liberals and Eyking yet again.
20/03/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
A few weeks ago, I'd have called this one as a sure-thing for the Liberals. Right now, with the fallout over the sponsorship scandals, any movement upward for the Conservatives will bleed the Liberals and put this riding in reach of the NDP, which is working from a much more higher base than the tories are in Cape Breton. Not a sure thing for the NDP either, but this seat is in play in a way that it wasn't even very recently.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
Cape Breton is becoming more and more a final Liberal fortress in Nova Scotia. If anyone could take it, it would be the NDP. But I've heard no reason for the Eggman Eyking to worry.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Originally, I had this riding in the Liberal column, but seeing the scandal, and more importantly, seeing the 2000 re-distributed results, I am less sure. This riding may go Liberal, and if I had to pick, I would pick Liberal, but the NDP will do well here, and I could see them winning. I think it's safe to say, for now, that this is a 2 way battle.

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