Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:27 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:59 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Joel Bernard
Yvon Godin
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Mario Lanteigne
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Serge Rousselle

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Acadie-Bathurst (100.0%)
Yvon Godin

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,490 46.67%
18,613 40.42%
3,923 8.52%
2,021 4.39%
0 0.00%

(207/227 polls, 62772/67500 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Denis
Email: [hidden]
Le candidat Serge Rouselle va redonner aux libéraux ce siège traditionnellement acquis avec 37 % des votes. À mon avis, avec le re-découpage de la circonscription d'Acadie-Bathurst, le député sortant, Yvon Godin, ne pourra faire mieux que 30 % du suffrage cette année. Celui-ci subit directement une perte net de 9.4 % de ses votes à la région de Miramichi (il avait remporter avec 46.6 % des votes en 2000) et, avec la monté en popularité du parti Conservateur, le candidat Joel Bernard va doubler le résultat des votes des Alliancistes et PC de la dernière élection (8.5 % & 4.4 %), pour un total d'environ 26 %. De plus, le parti Vert, avec Mario LaMontagne fera également un impact sur le vote de contestation cette année.
10/06/04 Claude B
Email: [hidden]
Godin is going to get his third term in this Northern New Brunswick riding. His main opponent, Liberal Serge Rousselle, has tried and failed to defeat PC Elvy Robichaud in 1999 and doesn't live in the riding (he lives in Moncton, 300 km away). Since Doug Young shocker in 1997, the Grits had numerous problems in that region. So, unless there is a tidal wave of support for the Tories in the last three weeks, I can't see Joel Bernard win sufficient support in the Acadian Peninsula to unseat Godin.
28/05/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
Yvon Godin, though popular, has a big fight on his hands. Godin won in 1997 in a fluke because of EI and got re-elected in 2000 based in part because of his popularity but also because of a split Liberal Party that had had a very bitter nomination fight.
In 2004, the Liberals are very united after any hard-feelings about the nomination (which Rouselle had won handily) vaporized when Langteinge decided to run Green.
Moreover, CPC candidate Joel Bernard (a defeated PC MLA) is more credible than those candidates in 2000 and could steal some of the anti-government vote from the NDP's Godin. That may sound strange to outsiders but people in Northern NB are more pragmatic than ideological... Roland Hache, one of the MLAs in this riding, was elected in 1999 because the NDP and Tories split the anti-government vote in his riding.
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
The NDP will keep this seat, the Conservatives are not a factor and the Liberal's with Serge Rousselle will have the worst score in a while.....
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
M. Godin has become a very popular MP and with the surge in NDP support and the various Liberal fiascos, he will be easily re-elected.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Yvon Godin will in the riding quite easily. Though part of his riding was chopped, in the new riding (using last election's results for the new riding) he still would have won with a 6% margin. I dont think he will have any problem winning yet again, and may even drag in another NDP MP on his coat tails.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Yvon Godin has a lock on this riding. He has already faced his two biggest electoral challenges (toppiling Doug Young in 1997 and beating former Liberal MLA Bernard Theriault in 2000). Yvon has a popular cult of personality in Acadie-Bathurst and it is unlikely that the Liberals will be able to muster a candidate with as much potential strength as Young or Theriault. Moreover, the NDP is polling at 17% in New Brunswick (up from 11.8% in 2000), further ensuring a Godin victory. Yvon will win with at least 50% of the vote.

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